Reigning The Bank Nifty 2nd May 2012

Monthly Chart

Maintained above the 12 month ema.Second consecutive Inside pattern formed forming a triangle.Breakout will give around a 1500 point move.Oscillators showing weakness increasing possibility of breakout on the downside.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

Half Hourly Chart

Half Hourly chart shows weakness persists with Bank Nifty reacting from the 50% retracement level and still trading below the rising wedge support line.Needs to breakout from the pennant shown in daily chart II for further bullishness. Oscillators taken support at earlier lows.Double bottom at 10029 will get confirmed on crossing 10646.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P500 30th April 2012

 Weekly Chart

The uptrendline from 1075 held well indicating steam left in the uptrend.oscillators showing signs of moving up again.

Daily Chart

Crossed the 61.8% level at 1397 rather smoothly. Resistance now at 1422 the earlier high registered on 2nd April 2012.If crossed successfully a good 65 points to be made on the upside.

Symmetrical triangle indicates bulls and bears fight for supremacy

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 30th April 2012

 Weekly Chart

The breakout above downtrendline from 5629 proved false. Nifty made a lower high lower low candle and  has broken below the uptrendline from December once again.Oscillators  showing weakness which may lead to a further fall.


Weekly Chart

The right shoulder of an Inverse head and shoulder bullish pattern could still be forming.

Daily Chart

An outside day pattern was formed which indicates indecision.The candle formed was a doji which shows indecision too.So a reversal of the downtrend may be in store.The trend following Demas are all in sell and bearishly aligned.The break down from the uptrendline is intact for the fifth consecutive day. The close is also below the 200 dema for the third consecutive day.The triangle breakout shown in the half hourly chart below is intact with a target of 4974.

Half Hourly Chart

Weekly Volume Chart

After pulling out the volume chart I am more than convinced that the fall from 5629 is a pennant forming.It has adhered to all the features. Breakout from the November 2011 down trendline, increased volumes on the sharp rise from 4531, falling volumes and  converging trendlines on the fall from 5629  and the time taken till now is 9 weeks.The validity of the pattern remains till 12 weeks by which the pattern should break out.So the bulls have 3 more weeks to prove their might.Else the bears will take the Nifty to lower levels.

Resistance at 5225-5250-5270  Support at 5136-5080-4950

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 30th April 2012

Weekly Chart

The breakout above downtrendline from 11226 proved false.The Bank Nifty made a lower high lower low candle and  has broken below the uptrendline from December once again.Oscillators  showing weakness which may lead to a further fall.


Weekly Chart

The right shoulder of an Inverse head and shoulder bullish pattern could still be forming.

Daily Chart

An outside day pattern was formed which indicates indecision.The candle formed was a doji which shows indecision too.So a reversal of the downtrend may be in store.The trend following Demas 5/20  and 5/50 are  in sell.The break down from the uptrendline is intact for the fifth consecutive day. The close is also below the 50 dema for the third consecutive day.The rising wedge breakout shown in the half hourly chart below is intact with a target of 9521.

Half Hourly Chart

Weekly Chart

Checked  out the volume chart and felt  more than convinced that the fall from 11226 is a pennant forming.It has adhered to all the features. Breakout from the November 2011 down trendline, increased volumes on the sharp rise from 7766, falling volumes and  converging trendlines on the fall from 11226  and the time taken till now is 9 weeks.The validity of the pattern remains till 12 weeks by which the pattern should break out.So the bulls have 3 more weeks to prove their might.Else the bears will take the Bank Nifty to lower levels.

Resistance at 10249-10278-527010344  Support at 10029-9907-9500

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 27th April 2012

 Daily  Chart

Bulls won this game ! Hurdles at 1405.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 27th April 2012

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

An Inside day pattern was formed.This is a pattern showing indecision to continue with the on going trend which in the short term is down.Oscillators have reached levels from which earlier bounces have materialised. Watch if the high of the pattern 5236 is taken out to get an early indication of the down move halting.

Half hourly charts show the breakdown from the triangle very much in progress in a downward moving channel.Levels of breakout marked on charts.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th April 2012

 Daily Chart

An Inside day pattern was formed.This is a pattern showing indecision to continue with the on going trend which in the short term is down.Oscillators have reached levels from which earlier bounces have materialised. Watch if the high of the pattern 10278 is taken out to get an early indication of the down move halting.

Half Hourly Chart

Half hourly charts show the breakdown very much in progress in a downward moving channel.Levels of breakdown / breakout marked on charts.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 26th April 2012

 Daily Chart

Bulls and bears playing Ping Pong ! 

 Ping Pong, is a sport in which two or four players hit a lightweight, hollow ball back and forth using table tennis rackets. Play is fast and demands quick reactions.

The range between 1357-1393 is to be broken to win.  Play if you can react fast else stay away and join the winner after the match is over.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 26th April 2012

  Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The sideways movement with a negative bias continues.The close is below all demas, 5,20,50 and 200.The red triangle on half hourly charts has resolved to the downside giving a target of  4974.The 61.8%  retracement level of the entire rally from December 2011 lows is at 4951.Bears winning !


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 26th April 2012

 Daily Chart

The uptrendline for this rally which was redrawn for the third time has been decisively cut once again.The short term uptrend which started at 9845 has been broken with the higher low at 10060 being broken yesterday to register a low of  10043.The close however managed to keep above it.

Half Hourly Chart

Half Hourly charts show the rising wedge has been broken giving a target of 9521. This coincides with the 50 % retracement level of rise from December lows at 9777.

Lower high at 10646, close below 50 dema , 5/20 dema bearish cross and break of rising wedge shows  bank nifty favouring the bears. However the higher time frame is in a sideways move which favors neither the bulls nor bears. Shorts should have a stop loss of 10646 and longs a stop of 9845.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 23rd April 2012

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart

Nifty closed above the downtrendline from 5629 but too marginal to term it as a breakout.Nifty has moved above the uptrendline from December lows which had been broken the earlier week.The right shoulder of an Inverse head and shoulder bullish pattern could be forming.The Outside day pattern formed on weekly charts indicates a reversal of the short term trend which will help form the right shoulder if plays out as per it's character.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

The breakout from the flag has not been decisive as is evident from the daily charts wherein the  Nifty has been struggling to make a follow up buying.A lower high lower low bearish candle breaking back into the flag intraday shows bears still active.The high made after the breakout at 5342 needs to be taken out for further upsides.

Half Hourly Chart

The Half hourly chart shows an equilateral triangle showing an indecisive sideways movement. Break below 5246  will find support at 5208-5183-5136  and  holding 5246 will find resistance at 5338-5378-5386.

Till this triangle is resolved trade light.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 23rd April 2012

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

A higher high higher low candle for the week breakoing out of the short term down trendline from 5629.Held the uptrendline from December 2011 lows.Oscillators have started showing strength above their mid points once again.The breakout from the flag is bullish and the right shoulder seems to  be forming well.

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

The breakout from the flag has not been decisive as is evident from the daily charts wherein the Bank Nifty has been making lower high lower low bearish candles after the breakout and tested support on the resistance line of the flag.The high made after the breakout at 10645 needs to be taken out for further upsides.10384 is the key above which further upsides and below which down to sideways action.

Half Hourly Chart

The rising wedge on half hourly charts has not resolved one way or other yet.Rising wedges by nature is bearish and should resolve with a break below the support line.Break of 10387 should be an early warning of the breakdown.

Conclusion :  The higher time frames have shown breakouts which are not very convincing. The trend following Emas are all bullishly aligned. Oscillators are in neutral area. Remain cautiously bullish.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 20th April 2012

 Daily Chart

 Bear flag formed so break should be on the downside. Taken support on the uptrendline and 50 dema both crucial supports.Break below this should set the downward momentum finally.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 20th April 2012

 Daily Chart

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty has broken out of the flag silently without the conviction required to bring in the bulls.The candle formed was unimpressive and merely traded yesterday's range. Though we have confirmation about  the start of an upmove from the demas which are all bullishly aligned, I would wait for more evidence to say I am bullish.I would stick to cautiously bullish.

Half hourly charts made a potential double top at 5342.Break of 5291 will confirm it and give a move down to 5240 and would be the next lef down of the red triangle.

Supports and Resistance marked on charts.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Bank Nifty 20th April 2012

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Bank Nifty made a lower low lower high candle.Like the Nifty the Bank Nifty too has broken out of the flag formation without much fanfare. Despite the trend following Emas showing bullishness it would be prudent to wait for the bulls to show more conviction to declare the trend bullish.Cautiously bullish it is as of now.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 19th April 2012

 Daily Chart

Looks like a  pause in the buying. Bulls testing the bears to see whether they hop in.Till the bears break 1367 the bulls are safe.Bears need to see whether bulls successfully take off above the 1397 levels.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 19th April 2012

 Daily Chart

 Breakout from the flag failed on a closing basis once again after attempting it intraday. The island pattern gap which is normally a strong resistance proved it's worth with the Nifty unsuccessful in closing it fully. 5358 needs to be taken out for that.

Daily Chart II

Tried my drawing skills on a fresh chart and both patterns seem bullish. The red ascendling triangle and the flag pattern. OBV supports this by breaking above it's 14 March peak when nifty peaked at 5499.Key levels to be watched are  5378 and 5136 to be nearly sure of the immediate trend Though the Nifty is struggling to break out of the flag pattern it is neither breaking the support line.Breaking the ascending triangle either side could be the stops used for any long or short position held.

Half Hourly Chart

Intraday breakout levels shown on the half hour chart above.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Bank Nifty 19th April 2012

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

Bank Nifty shows a breakout from the bullish flag and inverse head and shoulder pattern.However the breakout does not show good follow up buying which is necessary to be convinced about it.Half Hourly Chart below shows the rising wedge starting another leg down.Intraday resistance and support on the wedge marked on chart.


Half Hourly Chart

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com