Om Sri Ganeshaya Namaha

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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 2nd March, 2010



Monthly Chart


  • A doji forming a lower high and lower low on low volumes.
  • Oscillators stochastics and Rsi 14  showing negative divergence.
  • Moving within an upward channel with support at 4755 for March 2010.
  • Maintained above 61.8% retracement level of fall from 6357- 2252.
  • A  broad range of 780 points between 5310-4538 maintained since last six months. Only a break out of these levels can trigger bullishness or bearishness. Else range bound movements will continue.



Weekly Chart

  • Second week of  a higher high and higher low.
  • Channel maintained. Stop loss at 4740 for the coming week.
  • The rise from 4675 has been on increasing volumes.
  • Stochastics has given a buy since last week and is moving up.

Daily Chart



Daily Line Chart



  • Range of 4805-4951 was broken only intraday. So the break of this range on a closing basis remains very important .
  • The Nifty resisted exactly at the 50% retracement of the fall from 5310 to 4675.
  • Close above the 20 dema and the 38.2% fibo level which was proving resistance since last 6 trading sessions.
  • The OBV has scaled past resistances of peaks  made when Nifty was in this range.
  • Breakout from the falling wedge shown on line charts since 22nd Feb maintained with a target which at the moment looks out of the hat-- 5400 as per line charts.

Half Hourly Chart



  • Breakout from the inverse head and shoulders giving a target of 5180.
  • Channel break target at  5065.
  • Oscillators moving down from overbought zone implying we may see a little more downside before moving up again

Yesterday I mentioned ,  But a break of a trendline/channel, to give direction, should have the proper thrust which this break lacks. I would give more importance to the "range break" . The reading  was proved right as markets shot up and out of the 7 day range , closed above the 3 day range and made the highest close in the last 7 days within the range of 4805-4951. We are in the upper part of the range and need to remain cautious till the Nifty closes above 4951 decisively.

WE now have a broad range on the monthly 5310-4538. A break from this range will set the trend once again. Within this range we breathlessly wait for the short term range of 4805-4930 to give us the short term direction.Various price patterns which I have discussed  tell us we may be moving up for sometime. So one may trade long for the various targets or remain long with appropriate stops. 4750 would be the stop for longs . If one has read my analysis well they would know why I have chosen this level.

I would prefer to continue my "hedged longs" with a stop loss of 4750.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 26th February, 2010




 Daily Chart

 


Half Hourly Chart




Should I "copy paste" yesterday's commentary? Yes , why not? After all the Nifty traded exactly at yesterday's levels. So here goes --"copy,  paste"  with a comment or two added.

  • The Nifty was range bound in the same range made yesterday on increasing volumes.
  • The wide range since 17th Feb of 4930-4805 needs to be broken to give direction to the market.
  • Oscillators still neutral.
  • 20 dema resistance respected.
  • Uptrendline from 4675 broken.
Nifty traded below the uptrendline/channel  from 4675 all day and closed below it.This is bearish and gives a move of 160 points which is the height of the channel shown on daily charts. But a break of a trendline/channel, to give direction, should have the proper thrust which this break lacks. I would give more importance to the "range break" .
So copy paste again.
A break above 4885 will lead to test of 4930-4951 and a break below 4833 will lead to a test of 4805-4785. Follow up buying  or selling beyond these levels will give a 100 point move whichever way the market breaks out.

Strategy of holding hedged longs with a stop of 4772 continues.
 

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 25th February, 2010




 Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart



  • The Nifty was range bound making a marginal lower high and low on incresing volumes.
  • The wide range since 17th Feb of 4930-4805 needs to be broken to give direction to the market.
  • Oscillators still neutral.
  • 20 dema resistance respected.
  • Uptrendline from 4675 held.
A break above 4885 will lead to test of 4930-4951 and a break below 4833 will lead to a test of 4805-4785. Follow up buying  or selling beyond these levels will give a 100 point move whichever way the market breaks out.

Strategy of holding hedged longs with a stop of 4772 continues.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 24th February, 2010




 Daily Chart

 


Half Hourly Chart


  • A lower high lower low small bodied candle resembling a doji showing indecision.
  • Equilateral triangle shown on half hourly charts reiterates confused markets.
  • Foruth day of close below 20 dema making it important for a close above it at 4885 for further bullishness.
  • The uptrending channel still maintained.
  • Oscillators are neutral.
  • Watch out for break from the triangle, upward channel or  inverse head and shoulders for further direction.
Meanwhile hedged longs with approprite stops as per risk profile to continue.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Monday, February 22, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 23rd February, 2010




 Daily Chart

 



Half Hourly Chart

 


Shooting Star or Inverted Hammer? The Nifty will confirm tomorrow. Being at crossroads makes trading difficult. The shooting star is ominous to the uptrend from 4675 and is the third bearish candle in a row. 

The inverted hammer on the other hand could be telling us that today's low is cemented and that the uptrend will continue.Today's candle also made a higher high higher low.

Oscillators on  half hourly charts are in neutral territory showing little strength. Daily oscillators too are neutral.

We could fall back on chart patterns to get a clearer picture. The upward channel shown on half hourly charts will keep the Nifty in upward movement. The inverted head and shoulders pattern  will keep hopes of  upmove till invalidated.

The Nifty failed in it's 4th attempt to scale 4951. This makes it a crucial resistance to be crossed for any sustainable upmove. Supports at 4805-4754-4700.

Hedged longs with a stop as per risk profile should be the strategy. As per risk profile because volatility may increase in the next few days due to budget news flow and Derivatives expiry.

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 22nd February, 2010




 Weekly Chart



Daily Chart


Daily Chart II



Half Hourly Chart

 

Weekly Chart
  • A doji on the weekly within the channel. The "inside day" pattern continued for the second week leading to a sideways movement.
  • The lower trendline of the above mentioned channel has been adjusted to accomodate more lows which has made the lower and upper trendline perfectly parallel .
  • Support on this channel for coming week is at 4728. 
  • A close below this will give a move of 700 points, and staying within the channel will open up possibilities of testing the upper trendline of the channel for targets above 5310.
  • Stochastics has given a buy in the oversold region and Rsi14 has moved just above the 50 line.
Daily Chart
  • Broke down from the "Inside Day" pattern  to form a lower high and lower low.
  • Broke below the uptrendline from the low of 4675 which is bearish.
  • Nifty has made a double top around the 4930-4950 level.
  • OBV has moved below the low made on 10th Feb indicating probability of test of those levels of 4750.
  • Formation of a falling wedge and a probable inverse head and shoulder pattern both of which are bullish patterns. 

Nifty has been in a sideways move since the low of 4675. Break of the uptrendline from 4675 and inability to scale previous high of 4951 shows weakness. A break of the low of 4675 may lead to a test of the medium term low of 4538.

On the other hand bullish patterns are forming on the daily charts , shown in Daily Chart II. Watch for breakouts from these patterns.Weekly charts too show the Nifty moving within the channel shown on the chart. This may lead to test of the upper trendline of the channel.

Trading longs with proper hedge and a stop of a daily close below 4700 would be the strategy.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 19th February, 2010



Daily Chart
 


Half Hourly Chart






""But 4951 is proving huge resistance and Nifty is being sold into even before reaching the level. Further bullishness only after crossing this level and closing above it""

The resistance proved strong and the Nifty corrected and was volatile in a small range on larger volumes than the previous two  days which were  bullish. This correction has been forming a bullish flag. Also formed an "Inside Day" as it stayed within yesterday's range..

The half hourly stochastic has given a buy in the oversold region.But the daily stochastic has reached the oversold region. The Nifty has closed below the 20 dema once again.

Expect bullishness only above 4930-4951  and   the correction to continue below4873-4857 .



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 18th February, 2010

 Daily Chart

 


Half Hourly Chart

  • Bullish candle on higher volumes than the last few days.
  • Closed above the 20 dema and the 5 & 10 dema are now bullishly aligned.
  • Daily macd in buy since yesterday.
  • As shown by the three elipses on half hourly chart we are at important resistance and only a move above it at 4951 will keep the bullishness alive.
  • 50 dema resistance at 4975.
  • Weakness below  4887 and strength above 4951.
  • Important support at 4784.
The daily charts have shed some bearishness and  become mildly positive. But 4951 is proving huge resistance and Nifty is being sold into even before reaching the level. Further bullishness only after crossing this level and closing above it.

Longs can continue with a stop of 4784.

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 17th February, 2010



Daily Line Chart

 


Daily Chart






Half  Hourly Chart


  


Sideways movement negated the negative divergences on half hourly charts.Positive divergences on daily charts have started showing effect.Closed above 61.8% fibo level of fallfrom 4951. Thus chances of testing 4951 is high. 4784 must be held for the move to continue.

Supports and Resistances marked on charts.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Monday, February 15, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 16th February, 2010

Half Hourly Chart


  


Daily Chart

 

I mentioned yesterday , " However negative divergences on the half hourly charts and the rise forming a  bear flag increase the possibility of a fall before the upmove from 4675 continues". 

As anticipated Nifty corrected today but it was a day of mild correction in a sideways movement on low volumes.  The upward moving channel shown on half hourly charts was broken but no momentum on the downside was seen. The day's candle   made a higher top and higher bottom. Positive divergences on daily charts are intact.The breakout from the down trendline from 5310 is also intact.

Nifty has resisted at the 23.6% retracement level at 4825 since last week making it an important resistance to cross for any further upside.Today Nifty hit the resistance of 61.8% fibo level of fall from 4951 at 4845. Thus only a close  past 4825 -4845 will keep the upmove going. Else the correction may resume.

Suppports at 4805-4780-4760-4740.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 15th February, 2010


 
Weekly Chart





Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart


 


Weekly Charts
  • Nifty back into the  channel which was broken last week.
  • Support from channel for next week is at 4837.
  • Volumes have been very low. 
  • Breadth  improved. 
  • Stochastics has reached oversold region and given an uptick.
  • Rsi14 has given an uptick just below the 50 mark.
 Daily Charts.
  • Big bullish candle but on  low volumes.
  • Breakout from the downtrendling channel .
  • Positive divergences in Rsi14 and stochastics in the oversold region.
  • Positive divergences on OBV.
Half Hourly Charts
  • Negative divergence in half hourly charts.
  • Movement seen in an upward  sloping channel since the low at 4675,
Nifty has broken out of the downtrending channel as shown on daily charts giving a target of 5065 which coincides with the 61.8% retracement  of the fall from 5310 to 4675. Nifty has  also  moved back into the channel broken last week as shown on weekly charts. Positive divergences on daily charts indicate the probability of the pullback /upmove continuing.These are bullish signs .

However negative divergences on the half hourly charts and the rise forming a  bear flag increase the possibility of a fall before the upmove from 4675 continues.Supports on the lower trendline of the flag for Monday is at 4777-4805.The upmove continues till these supports hold. 

The Nifty has retraced less than 23.6% of the rise from March 2009 lows.Thus the probability of some more correction of this rise looms.The recovery from the low of 4675 has been on very low volumes .The broad trend is down so any counter trend trade should be properly hedged .


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 11th February, 2010

 Half Hourly Chart

 

Daily Chart



  • Black candle making a higher low higher high.
  • Resisted at the 50% retracement level of fall from 4951 levels.
  • Daily oscillators  in the oversold region.and not showing any strength .
Nifty has been in a range of  4675-4827 for last 4 trading sessions. 4827 level has been resisted twice and thus makes it an important level to cross for further upsides. Must trade above 4750 to remain in the  rising channel shown on the half hourly charts . So long as it remains in this channel we may expect upsides.
 

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 10th February, 2010

 Daily Line Chart

 


Daily Candle Chart

 

Half Hourly Chart

 

  • The day was a slow upward movement making a higher high and a higher low.
  • Failed to make a breakout from the downward trending line.
  • OBV has shown positive divergence on daily charts .
  • Rsi 14 and stochastics too have shown positive divergence on daily charts.
The upmove continued today resulting in a higher high and higher low candle.Daily oscillators including OBV are moving up with positive divergences intact. The upmove seems poised to continue .

Immediate resistances are at 4814-4827 .  A sustained move above this level is required  for further upsides.

Immediate supports at 4772-4768-4758.


Broad trend being down, one can be cautiously long once the downtrendline from 5310  is decisively broken. 

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Monday, February 8, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 9th February, 2010



Daily Chart

 


Half Hourly Chart



  • Pullback underway after positive divergences in oscillators on half hourly charts and minor positive divergence on daily charts. 
  • Fibo resistances marked on  charts.
  • Longs are safe till 4675 remains unviolated.
  • Supports at 4675-4538-4495.
Careful on longs as broad trend down. The first sign of a recovery would be a breakout from the downward sloping channel. Till then Selling on rallies is the strategy .

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 8th February, 2010



 Weekly Chart

 



  • Third bearish week in a row, breaking below the trendline joining November 2009 low and last week's low. The weekly has turned bearish.
  • Volumes were marginally higher than last week .
  • Weekly Oscillators are weak having broken their lows of July 2009.This increases the possibility of Nifty  testing the July lows of 3918.


Daily Line Chart






Daily Chart





  .
  • Daily Line chart shows trend decisively down and the OBV too mirrors the same.
  • Daily Rsi 14 and stochastics have reached oversold levels.
  • Daily Candle chart shows strong support at 200 dema at 4655  and strong resistance at 4850-4951.

Half Hourly Chart
    • Half hourly charts show the beginning of a pullback.
    • A double top was made at 4951 and 4949 with the low at 4814 and Nifty has retraced after nearly touching the target of 4677 . Only a cross of 4951 will turn the short term bullish.
    • Oscillators have started moving up from oversold zone.
    The weekly charts too are now in a sell mode.This makes the broader trend down till  we have evidence of the trend turning up once again. The daily oscillators are in oversold zone and half hourly charts have started moving up from oversold zone  increasing the probability that the pull back may continue with fibo resistances at 4748-4786-4817-4850.

    Be cautious on longs as it will be a trade against the broad  trend which is down. Selling on rallies  should be the strategy.



    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com

    Thursday, February 4, 2010

    Reigning The Nifty - 5th February, 2010

     Half Hourly Chart



     Daily Chart

     

    Negatives
    • Sideways movement in a tight range of 4814-4950 since last three trading sessions.
    • Breakdown from bear flag .
    • Half hourly oscillators weak and already moved below previous low.Corresponding low of Nifty at 4814.
    • Daily oscillators too are very weak.

    Positives
    • Volumes on the fall were extreemly low.
    • Low of 4766 held for the fourth day in a row.

    Market is in a sideways mode. Pullbacks lack strengthand fizzled out very quickly. We have not been able to break out of the Inside day pattern's range of 4814-4950. Till that happens expect  a yo-yo experience.

    The trend  as per daily charts  is down but the weekly charts are yet to signal a sell. One should be cautious on longs as well as shorts.

    A weekly close above 4795 could keep hopes of some upside alive for the next week.

     
    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com

    Wednesday, February 3, 2010

    Reigning The Nifty - 4th February, 2010


     Daily Chart

     


    Half Hourly Chart




    • Bullish white candle forming an "Inside day".
    • Half hourly oscillators in neutral zone.
    • Daily oscillators are moving up from oversold zone indicating possibilities of some more upside.Movement in a bear flag shown on half hourly charts may cap the upside.
    The inside day gives 4951 and 4814 as upside and downside levels for further direction . If fails to breakout beyond these levels then will be difficult trading with a sideways movement.Advance Declines were skewed hugely towards advancing stocks. However volumes were pathetically low.Low of 4766 holds keeping the pullback alive.




    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com

    Tuesday, February 2, 2010

    Reigning The Nifty - 3rd February, 2010




     Daily Chart



    Half Hourly Chart

     


    • An outside day with a higher high and lower low.The candle is also a bearish engulfing one which makes it all the more bearish.
    • Close below  the 23.6 % fibo level of the fall from 5131 for the fourth day.
    • The red trendline finally succumbed to bear pressure.
    • Daily oscillators are oversold . Half hourly oscillators are weakening and stochastics has reached oversold zone.
    • Bear flag formation on half  hourly charts.
    We got a correction in the pullback as anticipated. However closing below the 61.8% fibo level of the rise till 4951 increases the possibility of the 4766  low being violated. The  bear flag formation supports this view.

    Resistances and Supports marked on charts.

    Till the low of 4766 is violated chances of the upmove continuing are open.


    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com

    Monday, February 1, 2010

    Reigning The Nifty - 2nd February, 2010


    Daily Chart
     


    Half Hourly Chart



    • A third small bodied candle with long lower shadow but with a higher bottom and higher top increasing chances of a continuing pullback.
    • The red trendline lending support at 4855 has held well.
    • Volumes were low but breadth was hugely positive.
    • Half hourly oscillators are all trending up strongly excepting the stochastics which has given a sell from the overbought zone after showing negative divergence. This increases chances of a small correction in the pullback.
    • Daily oscillators have given an  upward tick from the oversold zone  indicating  the pullback may continue.
    The pullback started on  29th did not make much progress today but managed to make a higher high higher low. The close was just above the 23.6 % fibo level.  So long as the 4827 levels hold the pullback will continue with resistances as marked on the half hourly charts.

    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com