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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 1st February, 2010



Monthly Chart
  • Monthly charts show a sideways movement since October 2009 on low volumes.
  • Reisited exactily at 5300 which was earlier resistance shown in green.
  • Monthly support level of 4650 shown in red is very crucial to the uptrend.
  • The fall in January has been on low volumes.
  • Only a monthly close below 4650-4530 will turn the monthly scenario  bearish.


Weekly Chart
 

  • Weekly scenario has deteriorated with a lower high lower top candle decisively below the uptrendline.
  • Oscillators have weakened further and broken below their November lows , increasing the probability of Nifty breaking it's November lows of 4538.
  • The 3 and 10 wema are bearishly aligned. confirming the short term trend as bearish. 
  • The 50 wema support is at 4571 thus making the support at 4538 strong as well as crucial.

Daily Chart





  • Daily trend is bearish with the Nifty trading below the 50 dema since six trading sessions and  all short term demas bearishly aligned.
  • Oscillators have reached oversold territory which has already led to a recovery from the low made at 4766. 
  • The recovery could face hurdles at 4900-4975-5038-5105.
  • Bullish  scenario only if trades above 5105 levels with strength.
  • Support taken on the red dashed line  since last three trading session. Thus watch out for a close below it to confirm continued bearishness.
  • 200 dema support at 4643.

Half Hourly Chart




  • Trend decisively down .
  • Oversold oscillators with positive divergence led to a recovery on the last trading session but resisted at the 23.6% fibo level of the fall from 5310 to 4766.
  • Breakout from falling wedge gives a target of around 5100 which coincides with the 61.8% fibo level.
The short term has turned decisively bearish .In the Medium term  there is evidence of deterioration in the uptrend but not enough evidence to term it bearish.

Till the medium term turn bearish or the short term turns bullish , trade with strict stops/hedges. Till the 61.8% fibo level of the fall is crossed decisively, selling on rallies would be the strategy.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 29th January, 2010


Daily Chart



Half Hourly Chart

 



  • A small bodied candle with long upper and lower shadow showing indecision.
  • Lower high lower low continues into the seventh day of declines.
  • Volumes were low and Advance Declines was negative.
  • Support was taken above the red dashed trendline shown on daily charts.
  • Daily oscillators have reached oversold zone and half hourly oscillators are moving up from oversold zone with positive divergence intact.
The daily and intraday charts show a bearish picture. Oversold oscillators and postive divergences gave hopes of  a pullback. The pullback came with a gap up but soon fizzled out to break yesterday's low. However the Nifty recovered soon enough to close above yesterday's close.Tomorrow will be a weekly and monthly closing .A close above 5013 would keep the weekly scenario healthy  and a close above 5020 will keep the monthly charts healthy.

Resistances on the way up are 4941-5010-5067-5126

Supports on the way down are 4853-4833-4806-4775-4610



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 28th January, 2010



 Daily Line Chart



Daily Candle Chart




Half Hourly Chart




  • Huge bearish candle on high volumes decisively breaking the uptrendline from July lows.
  • Support taken at 61.8% retracement level of rise from 4538 to 5310.
  • Support taken on red dashed trendline on daily candle chart, which has been good support  since November 2009.
  • The 10 and 50 dema  join the  bearish alignment bandwagon.
  • Daily oscillators have reached oversold levels but no sign of recovering.
  • Half hourly oscillators have turned up from oversold zone and given positive divergence.
The trend is now clearly down. We may expect a pullback from present levels as Nifty has reached good support levels and intrady oscillators have started showing positive divergence.Besides, the fall has been for  6 continuous  days.
Fibo resistances on the way up are at  4945-5016-5073-5131.
Supports on further fall is at  4806 --previous low made on 27th November 2009, 4639-200dema, November 2009 low- 4538 .




Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 27th January, 2010



 Daily Chart




Daily Line Chart





Half Hourly Chart




Sensex



 
  • An inside day showing indecision but the closing was lower than previous trading session showing weakness. .
  • Close above the low made at 4954 showing stalling of selling.
  • Up trendline joining lows from July 2009 yet not violated though the Nifty traded below it intraday in the last two sessions.
  • All emas bearishly aligned on half hourly charts making the short term trend bearish.
  • 5,10 & 20emas bearishly aligned and 5 bearishly aligned with the 50 ema on daily charts showing increasing bearishness.
  • All half hourly oscillators have moved up from the oversold region but not showing strength. Daily oscillators are weak and approaching oversold levels.
  • Support taken above the bottom made at 4945 in the month of December.
Today's trading was sideways and on low volumes. The forming of an Inside Day leaves traders uncertain about further direction .  However , the sensex chart shows a gap down below the uptrendline from July lows showing us the bearishness that exists.Only a recovery above the 5175 levels can turn the short term bullish. Till then selling on rallies would be appropriate.

One could also take a cue from the high and low of  the Inside day pattern . The high is at 17000 and low 16608. Trade long if 17000 is taken out decisively and trade short if the low of 16608 is broken.

Supports and resistances shown on Charts.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 25th January, 2010



 Weekly Chart I

 


Weekly Chart II




  • Uptrendline from March 2009 lows broken.
  • Oscillators moving down after showing negative divergence .
  • Breadth remained negative throughout the week.
  • Moving Averages bullishly aligned.
  • Uptrendline from July 2009 lows held.
  • Volumes low for the week.
    .
Previous week's doji pointed to a possible turn in trend which was confirmed by present week's bearish candle which broke the support of the past three weeks of 5160 . The weekly charts show weakening of the uptrend but more evidence is required to decalre it bearish.
Daily Chart
  • Today's fall was swift but took  support in the very first hour to rally and recover almost the entire fall from 5094.
  • 5,10 & 20 emas are bearishly aligned and the Nifty continues to trade below the 50 ema.
  • The fall has been on negative breadth and very high volumes.
  • Oscillators are weak and  supporting the fall. The oversold region has not been reached indicating some more fall possible.
Negative divergences persisting since May highs have taken toll. The trend has turned mildly bearish .
Half Hourly Chart
  • All emas bearishly aligned making th short term trend bearish.
  • All oscillators have moved up from the oversold region but not showing strength.
  • Support taken above the bottom made at 4945 in the month of December.
Taking partial profits on the 18th of January locked in good profits and the stop loss of 5169 on the remaining positions got us out at reasonably good profits. The short term trend has turned bearish and  the short term strategy should be to sell on rallies till the 5175 level is crossed with strength.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 22nd January, 2010

 Daily Line Chart




Daily Candle Chart




Half Hourly Chart




  • Direction at last with a huge bearish candle on the Daily chart.
  • Breadth was extremely negative at 3:1 and volume were highest in last seven trading days.
  • Moving averages all bearishly aligned on half hourly charts and Nifty is trading below the 200 period ema.
  • 5 day ema bearishly aligned with the 10 and 20 day emas and Nifty has closed below the 50 dema.
  • Oscillators on half hourly charts have reached oversold zone. The daily oscillators are all weak and RSI 14 has broken  the low made on 21st December. The corresponding Nifty level is 4943. 
  • The uptrendline joining July and November lows has support at 4988 on candle charts and at 4992 on Line charts.
  • The break of 5169 has given a double top target of around 5030.
  • Weekly support at 4972. Refer post of 18th Jan,2010.
The support of 5160 which held well for the last 3 weeks has been broken on good volumes and bad breadth. Daily oscillators show some more room for the fall to continue. Downward momentum has picked up and we may see some more fall before finding support.

Relevant supports and resistances marked on charts.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 21st January, 2009


Daily Line Chart




Daily Chart




Hal Hourly Chart



  • A bearish day ending in a doji leaving the confusion of direction intact.
  • The action since 6th January has formed a triangle adding to the evidence of a confused market.
  • Daily oscillators continue to be in a limbo.Macd continues to be in a sell mode.
  • Daily emas are all bullishly aligned.
  • All emas are in bearish alignment on half hourly charts.The Nifty has closed below the 200 ema.
  • Half hourly oscillators are showing minor positive divergences.
Markets are in a fluid state. 5285-5310 is strong resistance and 5160 strong support. Trend is technically still UP. Strategy of hedged longs with a stop loss of 5160 on a clsoing basis to continue.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 20th January, 2009



Daily Line Chart



Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart




Sensex Daily Chart




  • Bearishness of 'outside day ' mentioned yesterday played out ending in a huge bearish engulfing candle for the day. It is better visible on the sensex.
  • Oscillators on half hourly charts are weak and daily oscillators are in the neutral zone  showing weakening signs. The daily Macd has given a sell.
  • Emas on half hourly charts are bearishly aligned except the 200ema which gives support at 5222.
  • Emas on daily charts still bullishly aligned.
Range trading is very difficult and the nifty has been stuck in the range of 5160-5310 since the beginning of this month. If the level of 5169 gives way we have a confirmed double top with a target of 5050. Hope readers took note of recommendation to book partial profits. Remaining longs can be continued with a strict stop loss of 5169.




Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 19th January, 2009



 Daily Chart



Daily Line Chart





Half Hourly Chart



  • Today's candle  was an "outside day",  a smaller bar or candlestick totally encompassed by a larger bar or candlestick . An outside day  suggests a potential reversal or deceleration of the current trend. The outside day at resistance might be considered bearish, while an outside day at support might be considered bullish.
  • The resistance of 5310 has been eluding since the 6th of January when the level was touched.However the minor resistance and neckline of the inverse head and shoulder at 5272 was overcome.
  • Fresh negative divergences spotted on half hourly charts and negative divergences on daily charts persist.
  • Volumes were very low and breadth 1:1 
  • Support  at  5228-5232  established since last 3 trading sessions.
The trade today was inconclusive leaving traders yet  in a dilemma . Trading startegy would remain the same --hedged longs.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Monday, January 18, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 18th January, 2009



Weekly Chart I




  
Weekly Chart II






Daily Chart





 Daily Line Chart




 Half  Hourly Chart



Bearish Case
  • Doji on weekly charts after two small bodied candles in the previous two weeks signalling waning of upward momentum.
  • "Inside Day"  formed on weekly charts signalling indecision.
  • Weekly oscillators continue showing negative divergence.
  • Daily oscillators continue showing negative divergences.
  • Fall from 5310 to 5169 was on higher volumes than the recovery from 5169 to 5279.
  • Half hourly charts show sideways move and failure to cross and sustain above the 61.8% retracement level.
  • Half hourly oscillators show a lacklustre to weakening market.

Bullish Case

  • Weekly , daily and half  hourly emas (barring the 5 half hourly ema) all bullishly aligned .
  • The earlier support of 5160 held well..
  • Held above the breakout level if 5182 for the third consecutive week.
  • Double bottom shown on line charts with a target of  5354 still valid.
  • Inverted head and shoulders pattern spotted on half hourly charts with the neckline at 5272 and a target of 5372 on a breakout.
My View
  • Technically the trend continues to be UP , but further upmoves have not been too convincing in strength.
  • Since we need to follow the principle of  " The trend is your friend",  continuing hedged longs would continue to be the strategy. Partial profits may be booked  too.
  • The 61.8% fibo level at 5257 is proving strong resistance.Staying above this level will keep the bullishness alive.
  • First sign of weakness would be a close below 5210 and first sign of  further strength  would be a close above 5272.
  • Strong resistance at 5310 and strong support at 5160. Weekly chart I shows support at 5174 on the new uptrendline drawn from March 2009 lows.
  • The Inside Day pattern breakout points on weekly chart is at 5310 & 5167. So one could get direction on break of either level.
  • Final support at 4590 , the 23.6% fibo level shown on weekly chart I  which is also the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 15th January, 2009




 Half Hourly Chart




 Daily Chart




Daily Line Chart





  • Sideways action between 5160-5310 continues with an upward bias.
  • Double bottom target of 5354 still valid.
  • Inverse head and shoulders spotted on the half hourly chart with neckline at 5272.A cross above the neckline will give a target of 5372.All emas  are now bullishly aligned favouring a breakout.
  • Cushions and hurdles marked on the charts. Weekly cushion at 5120.

Hedged longs to continue as negative divergences are intact on daily charts and the possibility of  the fall resuming lurks till the high of 5310 is taken out decisively.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 14th January, 2009



 Half Hourly Chart




 Daily Chart



 Daily Line Chart



  • The 38.2% retracement level of rise from 4945 levels at 5170 held well 
  • The Nifty on recovery today resisted exactly at 5239 which is the 50% retracement level of the fall from 5310 to 5169.
  • Trading above the 5256 level, which is the 61.8% fibo level of the fall, is necessary for further upsides.
  • Half hourly oscillators are moving up from oversold levels.
  • Daily oscillators show signs of moving up without reaching oversold levels which is a sign of strength.
  • Daily emas still bulishly aligned.
Strategy of holding hedged longs to continue.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 13th January, 2009




 Daily Chart



 Daily Line Chart



Half Hourly Chart





  • An outside day occured which signals bearishness.
  • The range of 4942-5310 was broken on the downside and close was below the 23.6% fibo level of rise from 4945.
  • Oscillators on daily and half hourly are weak and signalling more downside.
  • 5,10,20 & 50 ema on half hourly charts bearishly aligned.
  • A close below 5147 will open up the possibility of a test of 4945 as it was the peak value of the double bottom of 4944. Refer Daily line chart
  • Advance Decline line was negative after a constant rise since 21st December, 2009.
Only a close below 5160 will turn the trend bearish. Till  then  continue  hedged  longs.

 

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 12th January, 2009


 Half  Hourly Chart




Half Hourly Chart

 



Daily Chart




  •  Nifty still remains in the range of 5242-5310 while moving in a downward sloping channel.. 
  • Half hourly oscillators are weak. The stochastics though has given a buy in the oversold zone.
  • Daily charts show support taken at 23.6 % fibo levels of latest rise from 4943 to 5310.
  • Good support around 5160-5172 levels . 38.2 % fibo level is at 5172.
The "long but  hedged" startegy continues.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 11th January, 2009




Weekly Chart





The week saw a higher high and higher low on good volumes and closed well above the breakout point of 5182 after a successful retest of the previous weeks low of 5160.This makes the 5160 levels a significant support . The long upper shadow shows selling at 5300 levels , which is a concern as negative divergences on the oscillators too are intact.

Daily Chart





Daily Line Chart



The daily scenario is a little bearish unlike the weekly having broken out of the rising channel  in which it was moving  since almost mid December. The last two days have made a lower top lower bottom  and lower closings too. Negative divergences on oscillators are intact. Volumes during the week were good which adds to the bearish bias.

Half Hourly Chart I




Half Hourly Chart II




Half hourly chart I shows a sideways movement within 5242-5310 since the last 4 days. The bias though is down as depicted by the moving averages which are bearishly aligned. The 50 ema support too has been broken. The Chart II shows a consolidation flag pattern with positive divergence in the stochastics and ROC.

My View :

  • The  markets have seen new highs this week and a shallow pullback. 
  • The advance decline line has been steadily moving up.
  • The very short term is seeing positive divergences. So one could assume that the pattern forming on the fall from 5310 is a consolidation. 
The broader trend being UP, one should continue being long but at the same time be hedged as the conviction at highs are not too strong. Supports at 5242-5160-4945



    Happy Trading !!

    Lakshmi Ramachandran
    www.vipreetsafetrading.com