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Om  Sri  Ganeshaya  Namaha
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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 1st February, 2010

Monthly Chart
  • Monthly charts show a sideways movement since October 2009 on low volumes.
  • Reisited exactily at 5300 which was earlier resistance shown in green.
  • Monthly support level of 4650 shown in red is very crucial to the uptrend.
  • The fall in January has been on low volumes.
  • Only a monthly close below 4650-4530 will turn the monthly scenario  bearish.

Weekly Chart

  • Weekly scenario has deteriorated with a lower high lower top candle decisively below the uptrendline.
  • Oscillators have weakened further and broken below their November lows , increasing the probability of Nifty breaking it's November lows of 4538.
  • The 3 and 10 wema are bearishly aligned. confirming the short term trend as bearish. 
  • The 50 wema support is at 4571 thus making the support at 4538 strong as well as crucial.

Daily Chart

  • Daily trend is bearish with the Nifty trading below the 50 dema since six trading sessions and  all short term demas bearishly aligned.
  • Oscillators have reached oversold territory which has already led to a recovery from the low made at 4766. 
  • The recovery could face hurdles at 4900-4975-5038-5105.
  • Bullish  scenario only if trades above 5105 levels with strength.
  • Support taken on the red dashed line  since last three trading session. Thus watch out for a close below it to confirm continued bearishness.
  • 200 dema support at 4643.

Half Hourly Chart

  • Trend decisively down .
  • Oversold oscillators with positive divergence led to a recovery on the last trading session but resisted at the 23.6% fibo level of the fall from 5310 to 4766.
  • Breakout from falling wedge gives a target of around 5100 which coincides with the 61.8% fibo level.
The short term has turned decisively bearish .In the Medium term  there is evidence of deterioration in the uptrend but not enough evidence to term it bearish.

Till the medium term turn bearish or the short term turns bullish , trade with strict stops/hedges. Till the 61.8% fibo level of the fall is crossed decisively, selling on rallies would be the strategy.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran

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