Om Sri Ganeshaya Namaha

Om  Sri  Ganeshaya  Namaha
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Saturday, January 23, 2010

Reigning The Nifty - 25th January, 2010

 Weekly Chart I


Weekly Chart II

  • Uptrendline from March 2009 lows broken.
  • Oscillators moving down after showing negative divergence .
  • Breadth remained negative throughout the week.
  • Moving Averages bullishly aligned.
  • Uptrendline from July 2009 lows held.
  • Volumes low for the week.
Previous week's doji pointed to a possible turn in trend which was confirmed by present week's bearish candle which broke the support of the past three weeks of 5160 . The weekly charts show weakening of the uptrend but more evidence is required to decalre it bearish.
Daily Chart
  • Today's fall was swift but took  support in the very first hour to rally and recover almost the entire fall from 5094.
  • 5,10 & 20 emas are bearishly aligned and the Nifty continues to trade below the 50 ema.
  • The fall has been on negative breadth and very high volumes.
  • Oscillators are weak and  supporting the fall. The oversold region has not been reached indicating some more fall possible.
Negative divergences persisting since May highs have taken toll. The trend has turned mildly bearish .
Half Hourly Chart
  • All emas bearishly aligned making th short term trend bearish.
  • All oscillators have moved up from the oversold region but not showing strength.
  • Support taken above the bottom made at 4945 in the month of December.
Taking partial profits on the 18th of January locked in good profits and the stop loss of 5169 on the remaining positions got us out at reasonably good profits. The short term trend has turned bearish and  the short term strategy should be to sell on rallies till the 5175 level is crossed with strength.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran


desikan said...

Just saw your blog and looks very informative. I have never been enthusiastic about technicals but the present volatility made me think towards the technical aspects. I thought with PSU disinvestment and Budget to come, the index might be strong till 2010 March but the fall on Thur/Fri has left me shaken. How much do you think the fall might go ?-- Desikan

Lakshmi Ramachandran said...

Difficult to predict how much it will fall. If 4954 breaks very good support at 4806. Btw all levels are marked on charts. If already short trailing stop loss could help to stay with the trend.

desikan said...

Thanks for your prompt reply. I am an NRI and so I can't do shorts and I can do only delivery based buying. Hence I think I would try to exit on any slight uptrend and keep cash ready to buy from lower index.--Desikan

Lakshmi Ramachandran said...

yes that would be a good strategy