S&P 500 update --31st December 2010

 Daily Chart

I  wrote "Negative divergences seen on short term oscillators which should be taken cognisance of since the daily minimal rise  shows lack of bull strength". The view proved right with a lower high lower low candle breaking below the short term uptrendline from 1232. The move was very small though, but then that is just how it has been all through this month !

Supports at  1251-1242-1232   and     Resistance at  1262-1265-1270.
 



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 31st December 2010

 Daily Chart

 Daily Line Chart

The candle charts followed the line charts in giving a breakout above the double bottom mid point of 6070 giving a target of 6419.Both charts show a close above the 61.8% retracement level of the fall till 5690.All resistances shown yesterday have been scaled. The next hurdle is at 6144.

Half  Hourly Chart

Still encased within the channel. Resistance at 6137-6152  and Support at 6035-6054.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 31st December 2010

Daily Chart

Lack of upside momentum continues to bug the Bank Nifty bulls.The resistance of 11634 remains unconquered.Strong resistance at the breakout point from the  downtrendline is at 11656. A cross of these two levels is required to get bulls more active. Stop Loss at 11390 for longs.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --30th December 2010

Daily Chart

A higher high and higher low candle but volumes and range unexciting. Negative divergences seen on short term oscillators which should be taken cognisance of since the daily minimal rise  shows lack of bull strength.

Supports at  1256-1251-1249-1246-1243. Resistance at  1262-1265.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 30th December 2010

 Daily Chart

Finally some strength was seen on bank counters. The resistance of 11634 remains unconquered.Strong resistance at the breakout point from the  downtrendline is at 11705. A cross of these two levels is required to get bulls more active.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 30th December 2010

 Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart 

Finally a break above the 50% retracement level (6338-5690)  and a close above the strong resistance of 6010 which I have been showing on Line charts. The double bottom at 5752 and 5766 clearly visible on the line charts gives a target of 6257.The double bottom at 5690-5721 on candle charts will be confirmed only on a close above 6070.The 20 dema has crossed above the 40 dema which is another bullish sign.

Half Hourly Chart

The ongoing  upmove is in channel  and has resistance at 6120-6136  and  support at 6006-6022.

Resistances are many around 6070 to 6144. A cross above  these levels  is required to defeat the bears completely.One can be cautiously optimistic with a stop  of 5980.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --29th December 2010

 Daily Chart

Sideways and closed within the range of the last few days of 1233-1260, inspite of an enthusiastic gap up  and recovery at end of trade.Close above the range will give momentum to target 1293.

 Supports are at 1251-1249-1246-1243. Resistance at  1259-1265.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 29th December 2010

 Daily Chart

 Bank Nifty has broken the short term uptrendline signalling a test of the low made at 10977.Supports are at 11294-11147-10977. 61.8%   fibo retracement level of rise from 8806 is at 10517. Only a rise above 11634 could bring in some strength.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 29th December 2010

 Daily Chart

Today's candle made a lower high and lower low.The 50 % retracement level of the November fall at 6014 continues to play spoilsport. The Nifty continues to stay below the green dashed up trend line from 4786.The triangle's upper trendline has resistance at 6043.50 after redrawing . Support on the uptrendline from 5721 is at 6005. All demas are bullishly aligned . Supports from the demas are now at 5990-5974-5965-5960.Line charts dont show any change as the close was a mere two points lower.

Half Hourly Chart

Half hourly charts have support at 5984-6001 on the uptrendline from 5721.

The Nifty is looking weak and probability of correcting the recent rise is high. Positional longs should have strict stops at 5940.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --28th December 2010

 Daily Chart

A second day of lower high and lower low but marginally so, leading to a sideways move.

Supports are at 1253-1249-1246-1243. Resistance at  1259-1265.




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akshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 28th December 2010

 Daily Chart

The 50 % retracement level of the November fall at 6014 continues to play spoilsport. The Nifty continues to stay below the green dashed up trend line from 4786.The triangle's upper trendline has resistance at 6044 after redrawing . Support on the uptrendline from 5721 is at 5995. All demas are bullishly aligned now with the 20 moving above the 50 . Supports from the demas are now at 5988-5968-5960.

Daily Line Chart

The 6011 levels is proving strong resistance and only a close above it will give strength to the bulls.To keep the short term uptrend  from 5721 intact  the 5980 low must not be violated on a closing basis.

Half Hourly Chart

If support from the channels lower trendline at 5975-5991 is violated then fibonacci supports at 5969-5921-5882-5845.

The Nifty is looking weak and probability of correcting the recent rise is high. Positional longs should have strict stops at 5940.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --27th December 2010

Weekly Chart

The S&P 500 weekly chart shows a breakout above 1220 giving a target of 1430. Stochastics is in overbough territory and Rsi 14 is fast approaching .Negative divergence exists on Macd and Rsi 14 too is below it's peak formed when The price made a top at 1220.

 Daily Chart

The daily candle made a doji and closed below the red up trendline of the rising wedge.This may result in a down or sideways correction unless a move above the resistance from this trendline at 1262 is scaled.If the fall ensues a correction till the support of 1173 could be possible.

Fibonacci supports are at 1253-1249-1246-1243. Resistance at  1262-1270.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 27th December 2010

Weekly Chart

The weekly gave a breakout giving a good follow up to the breakout on the daily line charts and then the daily candle charts. It is not very enthusing since the high at 6070 of the bearish candle week could not be broken and stayed within it's range of 5721-6070  making the second indecisive week in a row. So inspite of the breakout from the downtrendline, a break of  6070 would have to be awaited to celebrate bullishness.

Resistance at  6133-6070-6145.                  Support at  5950-5900-5880.

 Daily Candle Chart

Today's candle was a bullish engulfing candle. The indecisiveness discussed on weekly charts is more obvious on daily charts which shows that the red dashed equilateral triangle  has still not been broken.Bullish engulfing candle is bullish in a downtrend  and the Nifty is in a downtrend since the top at 6338. On the other hand the Nifty is in a short term uptrend from 5721 in which case it could be the last gasp of breath by the bulls as is interpreted when the bullish engulfing candle occurs during an uptrend. So no option but to wait for a confirmation of the bullishness/bearishness .  A scale past 6014, which is the breakout point as well as the   50 % fibo level of the fall from 6338 to 5690, is required to get the momentum UP.

Daily Line Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

The daily line chart and half hourly charts give more insight into this indecision. The bias is definitely up as shown by the break out from the flag shown in red on half hourly chart. The breakout from the falling wedge on the daily chart is also being maintained with a higher high higher low formation. A close above 6011 will confirm the double bottom at 5752 and 5766 and promise an  upmove of 255 points.


Strong resistance for the week at 6030-6138.  Support at 5980-5950-5900.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - week ended 24th December 2010

Weekly Chart

Status quo of last week maintained. Repeat, Weekly Charts show support taken exactly at the 23.6% retracement level of the rise from March 2009 lows. The uptrendline from March 2009 too is maintained. The 50% retracement level shown in green and the 2008 peak coincide around the 10645-10775 area making it a strong support in case selling were to continue. This is also the area where a pause was taken in August 2010.

The week's candle was  again  small bodied and small ranged like last week's, though a marginal high and low were made.This keeps it within the bearish long ranged candle's ranged formed on 10th December.

Stochastics still in  the oversold zone and just turned down again giving a sell signal with it's signal line. Rsi 14 has turned up from the levels reached in February 2010 which is above the 50 level showing mild strength. Macd is in sell but much above the zero line.

Daily Chart

The daily raises hopes of some recovery with an ascending triangle. with breakout at 11634.Breakdown level on the short term uptrendline would be at 11430.

Interest in bank counters seems to be waning. Strength on upward momentum is negligible. Only a move above the falling wedge and the lower top at 12536 can bring interest back.Till then one should be cautious on trades.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 24th December 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

A sideways market in an extremely narrow range forming an "Inside day" vividly shown on half hourly charts as an equilateral triangle.A breakout of this triangle and from yesterday's range 6024-5958 will set further direction.The uptrendline from 5721 shown on daily charts, has been broken. This increases the probability of breaking the inside day range on the downside.

I have redrawn the triangle shown in red dashed lines on daily charts. Resistance is at 6019.

The daily emas seem to be doing a good job of giving support around the 5950-5966 range.Other supports are at 5958-5940-5920.  Resistance is at 5994-6006-6019-6024.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --23rd December

Daily Chart

Another high for the March 2009 rally. The lower trendline is offering good support and is placed at 1257 for today.

Resistance is at 1260 (161.8% fibo level of fall from 1227-1173) - 1270-1276.

Support at   1257-1249-1232



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 23rd December 2010

Daily Chart

Daile EMA Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The wedge breakout was maintained by Nifty  but resisted at  the 50% fibo level of the fall from 6338. The Nifty has once again moved below the uptrendline from the May lows at 4786 which was scaled yesterday.

The 5,10,20 & 50 dema giving solid support around 5945-5962. This level also has some fibonacci retracement supports.A fall below this level will weaken the Nifty to seek lower levels once again.

The uptrendline from  5721 has supports at 5956-5982.  Break down could lead to a retest of 5721.

Supports at 5958-5910-5872-5835.  Resistance at 6000-6023-6070



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --22nd December

 Daily Chart

A good breakout from the 1232-1247 range and ending at a new high of  1255. Volumes were low. the immdediate target is 1262.

Support from rising wedge at 1251.70 and Resistance at 1267.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 22nd December 2010

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

The breakout from the  falling wedge on line charts has finally been confirmed by the candle chart today.The target is around the highs of 6338.The close is also above all daily emas which now will give solid support between 5935 to 5952. 

However the earlier peaks at 6070 on candle chart and 6010 on line charts need to be scaled decisively before one gets overtly bullish.The 50% fibo level of fall from 6338 to 5690 on candle charts is at 6013 and 61.8% is at 6090.The same on Line charts is at 6033 and 6100 respectively. Bullishness will gather momentum only after a close above 6100.

A trade above 6000 could  take the Nifty to 6070 and a trade below 6000 could take it to 5935.

Supports are at 5980-5950-5935   and Resistance is at  6033-6070-6090.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --21st December, 2010

Daily Chart

Another inconclusive day with the range intact, inspite of making a new high at 1250. The candle made a higher high and higher low and took support on the red uptrendline.Trade above 1247 is necessary to avoid falling below this trendline which would then signal short term weakness.

Supports at 1232-1220.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 21st December 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Today was an up day but how! The close was 1.7 points below yesterday.But yet it gave a bullish feeling as it gapped down to 5926 , tumbled further to 5900 and then rose to 5985 only to tumble again to 5947 ! So was it a bullish or bearish day?

A breakout above yesterday's high of 5956 which could not sustain, a breakout from the equilateral triangle in red which sustained and the breakout from the downtrendline from 6338 which also sustained.But these breakouts are not impressive as Nifty still languishes below the 38.2% retracement levels of the fall till 5690. Today's trade gave some promise of a good follow up to the breakout only to encounter a bear attack to end  the day without any gains to talk of. Half hourly oscillators have made a negative divergence.So Nifty is undecided whether to follow the bulls or the bears.

The green rising wedge on half hourly chart has supports at 5894-5919.Fibonacci supports are at 5922-5883-5853-5822.A trade below today's low 5900 will find support at 5855 , thursday's low. Support on the downtrendline from 6338 is at 5930.Only a close above 6070 will signal more bullishness.

Let's cut down the clutter and examine the Line charts

Daily Line Chart

The day's trading was flat. The Nifty is sandwiched between the 40 dema at 5959 and 20 dema at 5938.The breakout from the downtrendline from November highs is maintained but is not too impressive as the expected  upsurge has failed to come.The rise has scaled barely 35 % of the entire fall.

Recovery of the fall from 6338 is laboured. The daily Rsi 14 has failed to move above the 50 level. Stochastics has turned down in the overbought zone  and Macd is below zero line in sell.the positive was that thursday's low of 5855 was held.

Recovery attempts seem to encounter bear attacks. Only a close above 6010 will bring some strength to the bulls.

Supports at 5930-5900-5855  Resistance at  5976- 6010-6070.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --20th December 2010

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

This week's sideways movement between  1232-1247 made a small doji candle on the weekly after two bullish candles, indicating a possibility of the rise stalling. Oscillators Rsi 14 and Macd are in negative divergence which is marked on the charts giving strength to this possibility.

Daily charts show the sideways vividly and only a breakout of this 1232-1247 range can give some direction.The rising wedge will be resistance and support in case of the breakout at 1272 and 1205.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 20th December 2010

 Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Charts

This week's candle made an "Inside Pattern" making the high and low of the precious week at 6069 and 5721 points of breakout for further direction.  The daily has an "outside pattern" which signals that a high probability exists that the market  will move in the direction of the close , which, in Nifty's case, is up.Half hourly charts show a breakout on the upside from  an equilteral triangle formation  More pointers to an upmove. Analysing  the weekly and daily charts further,

Positives are,
low of 5721 was held,
close was above the 61.8% retracement level of fall from 6070 to 5721,
the uptrendline from March 2009 was held --this was the third attack on the line in the last 4 weeks making it an important indicator to define weakness/strength,
the weekly stochastics which is a good trend reversal indicator on the weekly as discussed before, continues to inch up and Rsi 14 has turned up above the 50 level.
friday's candle shows more bull power than bear power.
breakout on the upside from the equilateral triangle.


Negatives are,
lacklustre trading in a very narrow range on extremely low volumes,
macd continues to be in a sell.

More positives than negatives. Higher low at 5721 and then at  5855 on Friday points to a possibility of some pullback.One can be cautiously optimistic so long as  the low of 5690 is held.  First step to more bullishness , cross of 5956. Second step, cross of  6070.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --17th December 2010

Daily Chart

Though it was an up day,  point to be noted is it was a lower high and lower low. The negative divergences on oscillators persist. A fall below 1230 which is the 61.8% fibo level of the fall from 1576 to 666 the March 2009 bottom, would signal more weakness.

The supports are at 1219 and 1200. Resistance at 1247.

 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning the Bank Nifty - week ended 16th December 2010

Weekly Chart

 

Weekly Charts show support taken exactly at the 23.6% retracement level of the rise from March 2009 lows. The uptrendline from March 2009 too is maintained. The 50% retracement level shown in green and the 2008 peak coincide around the 10645-10775 area making it a strong support in case selling were to continue. This is also the area where a pause was taken in August 2010.

Stochastics has reached the oversold zone and just turned up. Rsi 14 has turned up from the levels reached in February 2010 which is above the 50 level showing strength. macd is in sell but much above the zero line.

Daily Chart

Daily charts show a falling wedge which is a consolidation pattern with support at 10827 and resistance at 12040.
Oscillators Rsi 14 and Stochastics have turned up from the  levels reached during May 2010 correction.Thus a good chance of holding the bottom made at 10977 on 10th December.

The Bank Nifty is still above the 40 week ema and the 200 dema which has support at 10875 and 10840 respectively.

Good supports exist around the 10800 levels. A higher bottom has been made at 11147. Till these levels are broken one could lbe cautiously  long.Bullishness will resume once the breakout from the falling wedge occurs.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --16th December 2010

 Daily Chart

So the "chart obvious" happened and the S&P500 pulled back, confirming a short term top at 1247 with a much lower top and lower bottom bearish candle. A fall below 1230 which is the 61.8% fibo level of the fall from 1576 to 666 the March 2009 bottom, would signal more weakness.

The supports are at 1219 and 1200. Resistance at 1247.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 16th December, 2010

 Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

The breakout on the line charts did not lead to bullishness. Looks like a retest of the downtrendline is in the offing. Support on this trendline is at 5860.The candle charts show a lower high lower low candle which proved the breakout above the 38.2% fibo level of the fall from 6338-5690 and 61.8% fibo of fall from 6070-5721,  false.

Half Hourly Chart

The Half Hourly charts show an equilateral triangle forming making it all the more difficult  to  predict the short term direction.The triangle has resistance at 5934-5918  and support at 5734-37.The fall from 5954 has taken support by making a bullish hammer exactly at the 38.2% fibo level as shown on the chart. The hammer has been confirmed by a bullish candle in the last half hour.


Weekly support on uptrendline from March 2009 lows is at 5810. The 61.8% fibo level of rise from 5721 to 5954 is also at 5810 making it a strong and important support. Daily 5,10,20 & 50 dema are all in bearish alignment and are between 5901-5950 creating resistance.  5963 is the resistance from the downtrendline drawn from 6338 on daily charts.A close above 5950-5965  is necessary  if the uptrend is to continue.

Supports at   5865-5838-5810-5734.  Resistance is at  5914-5934-5950-5965.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com