Reigning The Nifty 30th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

Nifty finally broke out of the range of 5266-5367 giving a range break target of a 100 point move to 5166.The uptrendline is strong support at 5243 for today .The low made yesterday way 5235 yesterday . 5210 is the 38.2% fibo level of rise from the strong support of 4963 to 5366 which coincides with the 161.8% fibo level of rise from 5260 to 5339.

Strong support at 5210.  Resistance at 5260-5275-5300.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 29th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

The Nifty is stuck in a range of 5266-5367 since Monday of last week. A break out of this range is needed for momentum to increase in that direction.

Supports at 5302-5260-5222.  Resistance at 5350-5367-5387.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Marketpulse-snp.blogspot, You cannot escape COPYSCAPE !!!!!!!

S&P Wealth Creators !  However hard you try to wipe the  traces of plagiarism, you will not succeed.Please stop doing this !! Readers here is the evidence .


The comparison below was created by Copyscape, which searched for copies of this page:

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The page below now has no words matching the page.

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See matching content on: Found Page - Source Page
  

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Copycat Once Again !!!!!!!!

The blogger of   http://marketpulse-snp.blogspot.com  has copied my views on Nifty and posted it as if it were his.I am at a loss what to do !!


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 28th June , 2010

 Weekly Chart

 

Weekly Chart II

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart


Nifty has formed a shooting star which is highly bearish. The fact that the move past 5367 to scale the previous peak at 5399 made 2 months ago has been eluding , adds to the bearish possibilities. The stochastics is overbought, the Rsi 14 continues to make lower high and lower low since October 2009, Macd too has been in tandem with the Rsi 14 and is in a sell mode. Only a move above 5367 will nullify the bearishness.

Chart II shows the downtrendline from January  2010  joining highs made in the rally from March 2009, has been resistance at first but finally scaled to make new highs in the rally. The Nifty may thus correct some more only to finally scale the trendline.

Resistance is at 5290-5367-5399  and Support at  5179-5059.

Daily Chart

The inside day range was broken on the downside but the close is still inside the range.The breakout from the uptrendling channel and the downtrending  line from January 2008 highs proved false . Oscillators and OBV have moved below immdediate trough made on 18th June . Nifty's corresponding low is at 5245.Possibility of breaking this low  is high.

Support at 5207 which is the channel support. Resistance is at 5304-5367.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 25th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty is still hovering within the white candle range of 5266-5367.A black candle , a small bodied candle and a perfect doji of which the last two have returned into the  rising channel indicating false breakout. The breakout from the red downtrendline is however maintained.

Volumes were good  but heavier in the declining stocks.Breadth though positive was almost 1:1.

The half hourly chart shows the tussle between the bulls and bears more clearly. A breakout from the consolidation and then back into the flag and finally a breakout again !

The sideways move correcting the steep rise is difficult to trade as all ranges are. Only a move above 5367  or below 5266 will give sense of direction.

Supports are at  5284-5270-5246-5206.

Resistance is at  5350-5367-5400.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 24th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

The Nifty remained inside the "Inside Day" pattern range and failed to break out on either side leaving the decision of direction pending. The breakout above the trendline from January 2009 highs has been maintained though intraday Nifty traded below it. The nifty seems to be correcting the sharp rise by moving sideways.Consolidation can be seen on half hourly charts in a falling channel which can be identified as a bull flag.

Half Hourly Chart

Breakout from the bull flag is awaited to continue the upward journey to 5480 as shown on weekly charts in the post o 21st June 2010.


Supports are at 5288-5266-5245-5210-5170. Resistance at 5344-5350-5367-5400.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 23rd June , 2010

 

Daily Chart

An inside day once again taking support on the red trendline which joins January 2009 and April 2010 highs. Breadth was negative and volumes marginally lower than yesterday. Yesterday's range 5266-5366  gains importance for showing direction. A hundred point move can be expected on breakout of this range to 5466 on upside and 5166 on downside.

The Nifty futures chart shows a lower high and lower low candle. The gap made yesterday  5296 -5316 may be filled tomorrow.So that makes 5296 important  support on the Nifty futures chart.

Daily oscillators stochastics is moving down in sell mode above the 80 level, Rsi 14 has turned down before reaching the overbought level.Half hourly oscillators are all weak and fast reaching the oversold zone. The half hourly 5,10 and 20 ema are bearishly aligned and moving down. The 50 half hourly ema has support at 5300.

Supports at 5309-5291-5245.
Resistance at 5333-5350-5366.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 22nd June

 Daily Chart

The Nifty was hugely bullish today with good breadth and volumes. The trendline joining January 2009  high and the high of April 2010 at 5399 has been broken decisively. To maintain the breakout Nifty needs to remain above 5310.

The daily oscillators are showing strength. The half hourly oscillators have turned down from the overbought region.The corrections in the rally from 4967 have been intraday and more in a sideways manner. A sharp fall will be needed to shake the confidence of the bulls. 

The steep rise is giving a dizzy feeling and  Nifty needs to move sideways /down to blunt the steepness.

Resistance exists at 5373-5383-5399.
Supports at 5310-5266-4245.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 21st June , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Volume Chart    

       

Daily Chart

 Half hourly Chart

Weekly Chart

Big bull candle closing at the highs.Refer to my post on 31st May 2010 mentioning that oscillators have taken support at crucial levels which have been turning points. Oscillators are moving up in line with that and so is the Nifty. The trend is now clearly up as Nifty has also closed above 5240 for the week which was a necessity to scale the trendline on weekly line charts shown in my post for 14th June 2010.
Resistance at 5290-5480  and  Support at 5150-4967.


Daily Chart 

Nifty closed in the black for the first time in eight  days but maintained a higher high higher low. The upper trendline of the rising channel has been proving resistance for the last two days and the resistance is now at 5304. The rise being a wee bit sharp calls for some correction either down or sideways so that the steepness is corrected. The stochastics is in sell in the overbought region , while the Rsi14 and Macd are still moving up.
All emas continue to be bullishly aligned.


Half Hourly Chart

Half hourly charts show the correction mentioned in the analysis under Daily Chart already underway. The appearance of a shooting star in the second half hour today, set the downtrend which has broken the uptrendling channel .The resistance from this channel is at 5265.

The uptrend continues . The 5150-5200 is a very strong support region. The uptrend should continue till this support holds.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 18th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Third day above the breakout from 5205 level and fourth day from the neckline and blue down trendline. This
gives strength to the breakout. The upper trendline of the channel on half hourly charts too has been crossed. The daily 5,10,20,50 and 200 emas are all bullishly aligned. Today was the seventh day of continuous rise.

The points of concern though are,  breadth was only marginally positive and volumes have been falling marginally since last two days. The daily stochatics has reached the overbought region and given a sell.  Half  hourly oscillators are showing negative divergence.The macd and Rsi14 however are showing strength.

The trend is up and a close above the 80% retracement level  at 5277  will clear the way for retest of the top at 5399. Targets of  5335-5380 seem to be achievable as of now .

Continue  long with a stop loss of 5205 on a closing basis.

 Resistance at 5277-5294-5342-5399.

 Supports at  5231-5206-5165.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 17th June , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Two small bodied candles in a row maintaining the breakout but showing hesitation in continuing the upmove. Breadth was marginally positive and volumes average.Daily oscillators have slumped a little in keeping with the hesitation.

The half hourly chart shows resistance respected at the upper trendline. The negative divergence and overbought position on the oscillators are being  reacted to. Nifty may react a little more due to this . It is important to hold the breakout point of 5205 to avoid a deeper correction.

Resistance at 5255-5276-5300. Support at  5185-5161-5145-5110.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 16th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

Nifty closed above the desired 5205 level . The Nifty took support exactly at 5171 marked on yesterday's chart, making the blue downtrendline very important support. Today's candle was not as impressive as yesterday's. The breadth too was much poorer , though positive.volumes were high.

Daily oscillators are showing strength and the macd has moved above the zero line.OBV is making new highs. Half hourly oscillators have started showing negative divergence implying a minor pullback may occur.

Continue with hedged longs for the targets of  5335-5380.

Supports at 5165-5130-5115-5066.

Resistance at  5231-5263-5277-5300.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 15th June , 2010

Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

Nifty has made a decisive breakout from the green and blue downtrending lines and the 61.8% fibo level of fall from 5400 to 4786. The breakout is also  from the 2 week range of 4961-5148. This gives a target of 5335. The green trendline is  the neckline of an inverse head and shoulder, giving a huge target of 5513. Earlier the falling wedge had given a target of 5380.Breadth was good  but volumes were not impressive.

A lot of hurdles need to be crossed on the way, the first of it being at 5212 which proved great resistance since last one month.5240 is the upper trendline resistance of the rising channel. 5277 would be the 80% retracement level of fall from 5400 to 4786. Daily line chart shows the importance of a close above 5205 which was the breakdown point .

Supports are close by at 5171-5119-5050 as shown on the chart.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 14th June , 2010

 Weekly Chart

 

"Inside pattern" was formed on the weekly charts as the nifty failed to break last weeks range of 4961-5148 indicating  indecision.  Positive point to be noted is that Nifty,  remained below the trendline from July 2009 lows of 3918 on 21st may 2010, but  has been closing above it since the very next week on  28th May 2010.

Weekly Line Chart

The weekly line chart however  clearly shows the break of the trendline from July 2009 lows continuing . The upmove from the low of 4931 shows low strength and the downmove continuing. The momentum will pick up only when the range of 5362 -  4757 is broken giving a 600 point move.

Amongst the weekly oscillators only stochastics is moving up. Rsi 14 shows waning strength though above the 50 mark and macd continues to make a lower tick.

A weekly close above 5240 , which would mean climbing above the uptrendline once again , would  set the nifty moving towards the upper range of 5362.

 Daily Chart

Daily Charts show resistance at the top of 5148 and the green neckline.Inability to cross it will lead to an attempt to break the solid support of 4967.Oscillators are moving in tandem with the nifty.OBV  though has made a new high, increasing possibilities of the Nifty continuing to move up. 

Short term direction will be set by breaking 5148-5212 on the upside and 4961 on the downside. The medium term  is up so long as  the  neckline at 4650 of the inverse head and shoulder pattern is held.Refer to the post for 7th June for deatils.Line charts though depict bias towards weakness to sideways movement.The situation is fluid and one can easily get whipsawed.

Trade Long but positions should be adequately hedged till  the top of 5400 is decisively scaled.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 11th June , 2010

  Daily Chart 

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty confirmed the bullishness of the inverted hammer made yesterday with a huge white candle on good breadth and volume.The gap on Nifty futures was filled  increasing chances of the upmove continuing. However  this may be the right shoulder of the bearish head and shoulder forming , which will be negated only when 5138 is scaled.

The low of the hammer  at  4980 , and the earlier low of 4961-4967 are still crucial supports to be held for the upmove to continue. The inverted head and shoulder with the green neckline would then come into focus. Also the double bottom at 4967 will give a target of  180 points once 5138 is crossed. If the support does not hold then the bearish head and shoulder pattern  will play out it's bearishness, giving a move of 180 points.

Breakout from the pink triangle gives a target of 5136.5138 is thus a very important resistance to be crossed.

Support at 5056-5012-4961-4925-4913.

Resistance  at  5138-5212.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 10th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

Nifty made an inverted hammer and an Inside pattern. I have discussed the Inside pattern many times in this sideways move that Nifty is in since more than 6 months. It conveys indecision. The inverted hammer when occurs during a downtrend, which is what the Nifty is doing since last two days , is bullish as though there was selling pressure leading to a long upper shadow, the pressure was not strong enough to take the price below the low point. This makes the low of the inverted hammer a crucial support.

The low made today was 4980 , higher than the earlier low of 4961-4967. So long as these levels hold nifty could see an upmove. Refer to the half hourly chart--The inverted head and shoulder with the green neckline would then come into focus. Also the double bottom will give a target of  180 points once 5148 is crossed. If the support does not hold then the bearish head and shoulder pattern with the red neckline will play out it's bearishness, giving a move of 180 points.

Considering the fact that the Nifty has broken down from the rising wedge and is showing no strength to nullify it, the bearish head and shoulder has more chances of being successful.

Support at 4980-4961-4925-4912.

Resistance  at  5050-5070-5148.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 9th June , 2010

Daily Chart

Nifty Futures Chart

Nifty continued the downmove after trying desperately to cover the gap made yesterday.  The action made an engulfing bearish pattern which is as bearish as it's name suggests. Refer the Nifty futures chart for vividity. Nifty spot has taken support exactly at the last swing low mentioned yesterday. Nifty future too came close to it's corresponding low at 4933.

Breadth and volumes improved marginally. Half hourly oscillators have reached oversold zone and Rsi 14 has shown a positive divergence.

As shown in the half hourly chart yesterday, the rising wedge has been broken giving a target of  4678.

Solid supports at 4967-4925-4911.

Resistance at  5038- 5070.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 8th June , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Charts

Nifty corrected violently, stopping at the 38.2% fibo level of rise from 4786. Breadth was very negative, but volumes low.  Daily oscillators have weakened again. The Nifty futures chart shows an island reversal which is very bearish unless the gap down area is filled. The 50 dema has been violated again.

On half hourly charts the rising wedge has been broken giving a target of 4678. Emas are getting bearishly aligned. Nifty has once again fallen below the 200 ema which is now proving resistance.

Strong support is there at 4961 levels which is the last swing low and the 50% fibo level of rise from 4876. The 200 dema has support at 4910. Only if  these levels are violated  will Nifty target the previous low of 4786 and  if this low does not hold then the rising wedge target may be achievable.

Trade long if the gap on Nifty futures between 5032 and 5117 is closed and the Nifty futures trades above this level. Trade short only if the support of 4961 on spot Nifty  is violated on a closing basis.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 7th June , 2010

 Weekly Chart

• Weekly charts show a higher high and higher low changing the bias to 'up' .
• Volumes were average and breadth marginally positive.
• Head and shoulder with neckline at 4650  still valid with target of 7050.
• Oscillators moving up as anticipated last week from 'turning points'.

Daily Chart

• Higher high and higher low candle following up on the breakout from the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders.
• Volumes were average and breadth negative.
• Oscillators  are moving up showing more upside possible.Obv has moved strongly above it's April 2010 peaks.

Half Hourly Chart

• Despite positive action the close was within the rising wedge.
• All emas bullishly aligned.
• Oscillators showing negative divergence.
 

Nifty showed strength after initial hiccups  testing the neckline in classic textbook fashion. The correction since April has toed the line drawn by earlier corrections, by correcting less than 23.6% of the rise from the immediate trough at 4675.Also the number of  points in the fall has been less than the earlier fall falling in line with the earlier corrections.

As anticipated in the weekly analysis of 31st May, Nifty moved up from the 'turning points' shown on the oscillators. The weekly bias has changed from down to up with a higher low higher high candle. Holding the trendline from November lows is another bullish indication. Time to visit  the Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern formed since June 2008 with it's neckline at 4650. Nifty has tested the neckline  twice since breakout in August 2009. This makes it a very strong support and one can be long for the long term till this neckline is violated.

Indications of bullishness are resurfacing. In the very short term the rising wedge and negative divergence may lead to a pullback . The fact that world markets are in a tailspin  alert  us to be more biased towards  risk management than earning profits. So trade properly hedged.

The  bias has turned  positive and one can trade long with a stop loss  of 4950.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 4th June , 2010

 Daily Chart

Half  Hourly Chart

So the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder pattern formed and broke above the neckline to give a target of 5415.The falling wedge had earlier  given a target of 5380. (Refer to earlier posts). 5097 which was proving a difficult barrier has been crossed.Volumes were low but breadth positive.

Resistance at 5133-5145 from rising wedge , shown on half haourly charts, though, could not be crossed today . 5165 is the 61.8% retracement level of entire fall from 5400-4786. Thus the area of 5133 to 5165 will be very strong resistance.The downtrending line from highs of 5400 has resistance  at 5198-5194 and reisistance from the previous peak at 5212 will be the next barriers.Bulls need good momentum to scale these levels. Rsi14 and Macd are moving up in the neutral zone but stochastics is in sell having moved down from overbought zone.Minor negative divergence on Rsi 14 and macd on half hourly charts .These mixed signals may play spoilsport in the attempt to cross these barriers.

All emas on half hourly charts are bullishly aligned. The Nifty has once again closed above the 50dema.Bullish patterns with attractive targests have emerged. One can be cautiously long on the Nifty.

Support at 5097-5050-5020.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 3rd June , 2010

Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart  

The Nifty made an Inside day indicating indecision. Status of technicals not changed much since yesterday, but it gives a slightly clearer picture of the right shoulder forming . A rising  wedge too is seen to be forming  from lows of 4786.

Oscillators on intraday charts are moving in tandem with price.Daily stochastics has given a sell in the overbought region. Rsi which had turned down from 50 levels is yet under it.Macd continues to make an uptick.Mixed signals.

Nifty closed up when other markets were falling .Is this a bullish signal ? Or is it a caution that we will follow the others down invariably? Market internals were good with more advancing stocks than declining and a positive breadth.Volumes were very good. This could mean the signal is bullish and Nifty  may be forming the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder pattern.


Crossroads yet again. One needs to be cautious in trading till stronger indications of bullishness or bearishness.

Supports at 4961-4941-4904.

Resistance at  5060-5097-5167.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 2nd June , 2010

 Daily Chart

 Half  Hourly Chart

As  anticipated, the pullback happened. The bearishness of the hanging man pattern has been confirmed by a  huge black candle retracing 43 % of the rise from 4786 with a 116 point fall , which smacks of the correction from 5400 resuming. Breadth was negative but volumes were just average.The intra day oscillators have reached oversold zone, but daily oscillators indicate more fall to come.

Fibo supports of rise till 5097 is at 4942-4905. 4903 is also the support from 200 dema. If held then Nifty  may be forming an inverse head and shoulder bullish pattern with necklines shown in red and green. If broken, then bulls need to trade cautiously keeping an eye of low made at 4786, failing which the trendline from November 2009 lows will be violated once again opening more downsides.

Resistance is at 5024-5070 .



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 1st June , 2010 -- Monthly Chart Update

Monthly Chart

• Rising wedge formation of the entire rally from March 2009 which is bearish.
• The entire rise since May 2009 has been on falling volumes.
• The target of the rising wedge is 2356.
• Nifty has closed below the wedge for May 2010, on high volumes, indicating more fall to come.
• Oscillators have been in negatve divergence since some time and continue to show weakness.
• The Nifty has been in a range of  around 850 points since September 2009. Break below this range at 4538 will give an immediate target of  3676.

Monthly charts are not too robust since some time as oscillators have been showing falling momentum. Targets given here may take a long time to be achieved as short term action will be guided by shorter term charts.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 1st June , 2010

 Daily Chart

Nifty maintained the higher high higher low on daily charts. Intraday correction found support at 5038, well above  the support of 5017 mentioned yesterday . However,the candle formed  today is a  hanging man, which is bearish. The fact that selling pressure made a long lower shadow, rings alarm bells.The top of the candle at 5097, now becomes significant resistance, and in this case even more significant as it coincides  the 50% retracement level of the fall from 5400 , which is at 5093.

Daily stochastics has reached over bought zone. Half hourly oscilators are still in negative divergence and moving up once again. 

Short term trend up but medium term trend is neutral. Indications are we may see some more pullback of this rise. Crossroads again. Trade long cautiously with a stop at 5038.

Resistance at 5097-5167-5212.

Supports at 5038-5025-4980.

Will reply to comments soon and put up the month end analysis by tomorrow.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com