S&P500 29th February 2012

 Daily Chart

Inched up again and closed at a new high.Resistance now at 1378-1386 and support at 1361-1348.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 29th February 2012

Daily Chart

Inside day pattern was formed. In candlestick language it is a bullish harami.This pattern shows indecision and in this case could mean an indecision to continue with the recent downtrend from 5629. The longer the black candle and the white candle, the more forceful the reversal.The higher the white candle closes up on the black candle, the more convincing that a reversal has occurred despite the size of the white candle.Today;s candle was however a little small for this. However the pattern is powerful and the  rally may have resumed from yetserday's low at 5268.

Rsi14 has turned above the 50 mark and stochastics is about to give a buy in the oversold region.The 50 and 200 dema have given a buy since two days.

The fall is  well channeled with resistance at 5351 and support at 5163.This support coincides with the support from the downtrending channel from which Nifty broke out recently. Test of the trendline after breakout is very classic and a confirmation of bullishness if the trendline support holds.So holding the support at 5163 is very important for the ongoing rally. The green neckline support is at 5232.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 29th February 2012

 

Daily Chart

 

A bullish harami occured. The pattern is composed of a two candle formation in a down-trending market. The body of the first candle is the same color as the current trend. The first body of the pattern is a long body, the second body is smaller. The open and the close occur inside the open and the close of the previous day. It's presence indicates that the trend is over.

 The longer the black candle and the white candle, the more forceful the reversal.The higher the white candle closes up on the black candle, the more convincing that a reversal has occurred despite the size of the white candle.The Bank Nifty has fulfilled both the characteristics indicating the rally may have resumed from yetserday's low at 10074.

Rsi14 has turned above the 50 mark , stochastics is about to give a buy in the oversold region and the 50 and 200 dema have given a buy since two days all of which supports the above view.

 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 28th Februrary 2012

 Daily Chart

Inching up after registering a new high at 1372.An Outside day pattern formed. An outside day is a two-period pattern that suggests a potential reversal or deceleration of the current trend.Watch for a move below yesterday's low of 1355 for confirmation of a reversal.


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Reigning The Nifty 28th Feb 2012

Daily Chart

The head and shoulder target of 5298 was achieved.The 5323 level was broken very easily.Very bearish candle on the daily charts indicating serious selling.Rsi14 has moved below the 50 mark indicating weakness.Stochastics has reached oversold levels.The weakness indicates more selling to come.5235 is the support from the green neckline and it is very important that the Nifty respects it else the Nifty will test the 5083-5076 levels.

Any bounce will find resistance at 5354-5407-5449-5491

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 28th Feb 2012

Daily Chart

The short term downtrend seemed to be quite severe and a test of 9535 seems to be on course.If there is a bounce it may get stemmed at 10652-10785.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 27th February 2012

 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Upward momentum waning as shown by the narrowing daily range.Stochastics has reached overbought levels  on weekly charts and showing negative divergence.On daily charts the stochastics and Rsi14 are showing negative divergence from the overbought region.As suggested in an earlier post part profit booking would be prudent.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 27th Februrary 2012

Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty is in a short term downtrend correcting the rally from 4531 which is more than 2 months old and extremely overbought.Breakout above the 200 dema and the downtrending channel from November 2010 are bullish indications of trend reversal and the long and medium term trend remain UP.The fall from 5629 therefore, needs to be treated as a correction to the rise from 4531 as of now.

An inverse head and shoulder pattern has been formed on half hourly charts with a target of 5298.The low of the consolidation made at 5323 is good support too.A fall below this level should be stemmed at 5083-5076 level.

Only a move above above 5537 will turn the short term trend up.Good support at 5323-5076.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th February 2012

Half Hourly Chart

Conclusion : The short term trend has turned down.Strong supports at 10183-9500.Since the long term and medium term trend is still up this correction would be an opportunity to buy on dips.Only a melt below 9500 will put the medium term trend in danger.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 24th February 2012

Daily Chart

 

Still trading within the rising wedge, clearly showing waning upward momentum.Booking partial profits as the earlier top of 1371 approaches would be prudent.Going short would be foolhardy.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 24th February 2012

Daily Chart

 A gap down opening closing the last gap up made on Friday.This was a good followup to the bearishness of yesterday's candle.The rising channel too has been broken on a closing basis.The oscillators have turned down showing the upward momentum has weakened.

Today's low was exactly at the gap made on 15th February 2012 between 5416-5460.This should act as good support.If broken, the Nifty may seek support at 5323 which is crucial support.A break below this will take it to 5100.

Only a fall below 5135-5076 will put the uptrend at risk.

 



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 24th February 2012

Daily Chart

 

A gap down opening keeping with the bearishness of  yesterday's candle.The long upper shadow shows selling at higher levels.The oscillators have turned down from the overbought level on daily charts showing weakened upward momentum.

 The Bank Nifty is trying to take support between the 50% and 61.85 fibo levels of the rise from 10183.Only a fall below 10183 will bring downward momentum.Only a break above 11184 will bring in upward momentum.This thousand point range should be difficult to trade.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 23rd November 2012

 Daily Chart

 A down day confirming the bearishness of the doji but not convincing enough.More action required by the bears to make the bulls surrender.Till then trade long with trailing stops.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 23rd Feb 2012

 

Daily Chart

Bearish engulfing pattern ond daily charts show bears dominating the day.This is the largest down day of the rally from 5431.Bulls need to protect 5492 which is at today's low of 5491 to keep the steep channel  from breaking,  weakening the uptrend.

 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 23rd Feb 2012

Daily Chart

 

 

 

The 61.8% retracement level of the entire fall was too strong to cross and the bulls gave in to the bears rather easily today forming a big bearish candle, closing back within the uptrending channel and below the green trendline.Supports now at 10575-10321 below which the fall may intensify.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 22nd Feb 2012

 Daily Chart

The resistance line of the rising wedge still proves good resistance.For today it stands at 1368. The doji formed yesterday could be indicating a reversal.

Resistance at 1368-1371-1386  Supports at 1358-1353-1336 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 22nd Feb 2012

Daily Chart

Upward march continues.Have redrawn the lines to draw a perfectly parallel upward trending channel. Resistances now at 5660-5700-5740.Support at 5535-5467.

Good support at 5364-5323.Only a fall below this level may give rise to some serious correction.Till then it is a buy on dips.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 22nd Feb 2012

Daily Chart

 

The Bank Nifty made a new high for the rally, though by just 4 points, and a higher low for the day.The close was at the highs of the day keeping up with the upward momentum.However the 61.8% level of the entire fall at 11184 could not be overcome.Scaling that will take the Bank Nifty  to 11451-11718-11978.

Only a fall below 10183 will bring in some serious fall.Immediate support at 11013-10780-10690.

 

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S&P500 21st Feb 2012

 

Weekly Chart

 

Last week's doji fooled the bears once again.Bulls still have the upper hand. Rsi14 and Macd showing strength.Stochastics however has shown a negative divergence.

Daily Chart

The rising wedge resitance is at 1366 and support is quite close at  1347 shown with the red dashed line.Further resistance at 1371-1386 and support at 1336-1333-1300.Oscillators have failed to rise above the top made around the 9th of february.So expect some sideways to down correction before continuing the rise.



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Reigning The Nifty 21st Feb 2012

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

Bullish Indications : Bullish candle after a doji indicates consolidation in doji week.Volumes have been good in this rally indicating serious buying.Macd has moved above the zero line.Rsi14 showing strength having moved above it’s December 2010 level.5399 peak has been crossed decisively.

Bearish Indications : Stochastics is in sell mode in the extreme overbought zone implying a correction is due anytime.The 20 and 50 wema are still bearishly aligned.

Daily Chart

Bullish Indications : Gap up opening once again making new highs for the rally.Oscillators showing strength in the overbought region.

Bearish Indications : Doji formed with long uppershadow indicating selling at higher levels.Oscillators in overbought region making Nifty vulnerable to a correction.50 and 200 dema still bearishly aligned.The rise has been sharp so a correction is due.61.8% retracement of entire fall from 6338 to 4531 at 5650 can prove strong resistance.

Half Hourly Chart

Conclusion : Trend : Up,Oscillators : Short term overbought , Correction overdue.The doji on daily charts needs to be monitored as it may be signalling a reversal. Only a fall below 5323 will accelerate a fall and only a fall below 5121 will prove to be a reversal.No signs of a reversal yet.  Till then continue longs with a stop loss  and buy on dips is the mantra.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 21st Feb 2012

Weekly Chart

Bullish Indications : Huge bullish candle for the week.Macd has moved above the zero line and Rsi14 is showing strength having moved above the December 2010 peak.Stochastics too has moved up again in the overbought region.

Bearish Indications : Stochastics in overbought region so a correction may be due anytime.Resisted at 61.8% retracement level of entire fall from 13304 to 7766.

Daily Chart

Bullish Indications : A gap up opening in keeping with the trend.Rsi14 and Macd showing strength.

Bearish Indications : Shooting star candle formed which is a bearish reversal pattern.The fact that it gapped up makes it all the more bearish.Appearance at key resistance - 61.8% retracement level - adds to the bearishness.Confirmation is however required on the next candle.Stochastics and Rsi14 in extreme overbought region making the Bank Nifty vulnerable to a correction.

Half Hourly Chart

Conclusion : Trend is up but the Bank Nifty is overbought and a correction overdue.A shooting star at key resistance indicates the probability of a correction is high.Continue longs with a stop loss.Only a fall below 10392 will accelerate the fall and only a fall below 9484 will pose a threat to the uptrend.

 
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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 17th February 2012

 Daily Chart

A new high after giving fooling the bears with a close below the support line of the rising wedge.Will need to redraw this line at some point. The resistance line of the rising wedge is still valid and has resistance at 1364. Bears and bulls are both on tenterhooks as the S&P500 trades one day up one day down fashion keeping both guessing ! Trade long with a trailing stop loss as per risk appetite.The current uptrend would reverse only if 1300 fails.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 17th Feb 2012

Daily Chart

An Inside day pattern and a doji candle was formed.Both indicating indecision.Supports at 5460-5416-5325.Resistance at 5575.Continue longs with a stop at 5325.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 17th Feb 2012

 

DAILY CHART

 

 

 

Inside day pattern and doji formed both indicating indecision.The green trendline is proving good resistance since last two trading sessions.Longs are safe so long as 10183 is not violated.Continue with longs till more evidence of a correction is visible.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 16th February 2012

 Daily Chart

 A down day after the hanging man breaking the rising wedge marginally.The candle also made an Outside day which is a reversal pattern.Supports at 1336-1300.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 16th February 2012

Daily Chart

Daily Fibo Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The momentum is very much up and shorts should not be ventured till a good amount of evidence of a reversal in trend is there.Meanwhile keep a trailing stop loss of 5310 on longs. Supports and resistances marked.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 16th February 2011

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Uptrend continues relentlessly.Stop loss of 10580 on longs.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 15th February 2012

Daily Chart

 

The S&P500 is stuck in the 1336-1354 range.  A hammer was formed which is a bearish candlestick.The rising wedge too is bearish.With an overbought market more chances of a breakdown.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 15th February 2012

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Traded positive but  within the Inside pattern's range.The correction is sideways till now.Only a break of 5323 will get the bears to be active. Resistance and supports marked on the charts.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 15th February 2012

 

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Bank Nifty traded up today closing with a 83 point gain.The action was not too impressive but neverthe less up.The rising wedge still provides support.Resistance and supports marked on the charts.

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S&P500 14th February 2012

 Daily Chart

 "Good greek news" could not make a new high indicating knee jerk short covering only.The swing low of 1336-1337 now gains importance as support having proved support on 8th and 10th February 2012.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 14th February 2012

Daily Chart

 

An Inside day pattern and a doji both indicating indecision.A 100 point range since the last 5 trading sessions needs to be broken to get some direction.The broader trend however is up and only a fall below 5323 will bring in downward momentum.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank nifty 14th February 2012

Daily Chart

 

A doji with very miniscule change from Friday's  range. The oscillators continue to be in the overbought region.First sign of weakness will be a break of 10208 and the trend will be under threat only on the break of 9508. 




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S&P500 13TH Februrary 2012

 Weekly Chart

A doji indicating waning upward momentum.Occuring when oscillators are overbought one needs to look out for other signals in anticipation of a corrrection.Negative divergence on stochastics increases the possibility of a pullback. Support for the week at 1332 and resistance at 1365.

Daily Chart

Friday's candle failed to touch the resistance line of the red rising wedge and made a lower high lower low candle which resembles an evening star reversal pattern.Crucial support at support line of the rising wedge at 1336,  break of which will give a sizable correction of 150 points.



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Reigning The Nifty 13th February 2012

Weekly Chart

Doji at 5439, crucial resistance of the 50% fibo level of fall from 6338. A 50% retracement implies indecision.Therefore if the high made on Friday  at 5427 is not scaled we may safely assume that another leg down may have started.

Weekly Chart II

The crucial resistance at the pink neckline is at 5456 where a doji has been formed showing hesitation in continuing with the uptrend.

Weekly Chart III

The stochastics has reached an extreme overbought position.With the Rsi14, which  measures the speed and change of price movements  showing strength above the 50 level  the Nifty may go into a sideways correction.

Weekly Chart IV

However the downtrend may resume as has happened on the appearance of a doji on weekly charts as shown in the chart above.Watch for a lower top candle being made.

Daily Chart

A sideways correction is on since last week with a rising wedge formation.Only a fall below 5319 will bring in a good correction.

Half Hourly Chart

Till the 5076 level is broken the uptrend is safely on.Levels marked will help decide your stop profit /stop loss level.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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