Om Sri Ganeshaya Namaha

Om  Sri  Ganeshaya  Namaha
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Sunday, July 31, 2011

Reigning The Nifty Monthly and Weekly Update 31st July 2011



 Monthly Chart




The downtrendline from 6338 highs proved resistance once again. The resistance on the trendline for August is at 5682.A simple deduction from this level would be , above 5682 the Nifty could rally to 6042 and below 5682 could melt down to 5440 and lower.

 Monthly Chart showing Volumes




Volumes have been extremely low since January 2010 indicating a complete lack of buying interest. This coupled with moderate selling is seeing the market drift south, thus falling under its own weight.


Weekly Chart


 An outside day pattern which is basically a one day reversal pattern.It indicates some indecision in the market as neither the bulls nor bears were in control for the whole week. However, the big bearish candle on huge volumes could mean more bearishness.Stochastics has turned down below the overbought line and is in a sell indicating more weakness could be in store.


 Weekly Chart II




Did a fibonacci retracement study of the Nifty and found confluence of fibonacci  and  support levels for two price ranges  at 3 levels.Explains the reason why the Nifty is reluctant to stay below 5380 for long.If breaks once again then the 4786 should be strong support with a confluence at that level too.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Reigning The Bank Nifty Weekly & Monthly Update 30th July 2011



Monthly Chart


The month's trading remained below the uptrendline from March 2009 lows.The close was below the
12 month ema indicating  bearishness.This average is a fair indicator of the ongoing  trend as is visible from the chart. The downtrendline from 13304 highs remained stiff resistance.


Weekly Chart



 

As mentioned since the past two weeks ( read here http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/07/reigning-bank-nifty-weekly-update-23rd.html ) appearance of bearish continuation patterns did the Bank Nifty in.The close was the lowest of the past 4 weeks with a huge bearish candle on increased volumes..

Support taken exactly at the 61.8% retracement level of rise from 10340 to 11451. If stays above 10844 some pullback could be expected to correct the oversold status.


Weekly Chart II




The above chart shows consolidation in the range around the previous peak of 10774 made in 2008. Holding 10450, which is support on trendline joining lows since correction from 13304, will see the Bank Nifty continue with the consolidation.Else bears may lead the way to lower levels as marked on the charts.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Friday, July 29, 2011

S&P 500 update 29th June, 2011



Daily Chart


A bearish shooting star or a bullish inverted hammer? Only today's candle will tell.Good support at 1296-1293 levels.If breaks then the 1256-1268 levels should provide temporary support for a pullback from the oversold status.200 dema support at 1276.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



Half Hourly Chart


Hovering around the 50% fibo level of rise from 5196 to 5740. If holds then a good level to rally from so could get a sustainable rally. The gap still partially filled only. A bear flag seems to be forming with resistance at 5530-5534  and  support at 5470-5478.If breaks this support then the downtrend resumes. If breaks the resistance then the gap needs to be filled first to be able to rally.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 29th July 2011



 Daily Chart




Gap down and forming a doji.Follow up selling was missing.This may have been due to the shock effect of the gap down. Supports now at 5468-5403-5350.


 Half Hourly Chart



Key support 5497 was broken but not decisively. Bulls defended the level all through the day but the bears won finally to close below the level.Till the gap between 5512 and 5547 is not filled the right shoulder construction will continue.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 29th July 2011



 Daily Chart




 Gap down below the 200 dema and closing well below it. Supports at 10768-10340
 Resistance as shown below


 Daily Chart II



 
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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Thursday, July 28, 2011

S&P500 28th July 2011



Daily Chart


 Supports at 1317-1315 mentioned yesterday  was broken easily. Break of 1296 will target 1258 and lower.The 200 dema offers support at 1275.Holding 1304 may attempt a pullback to the resistance line drawn from 1356 which offers resistance at 1341.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



Half Hourly Chart

Gap down ! Till the gap remains unfilled the trend remains down. Chart II shows a coil forming breakout from which will give further direction for the day.

 Chart II



Breakout points for the next half hour marked. If fails then the broader points 5512-5475 should be considered.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 28th July 2011



Daily Chart



The last two day's fall reminded one that the right shoulder of the bearish head and shoulder pattern  could be forming.Crucial resistance to be overcome for an upmove to start is at 5648 and 5740 both marked on the charts.Crucial support is at 5497 failing which the downtrend could gain momentum.Supports are at 5497-5468-5403.


Half Hourly Chart




 The half hourly charts reiterates what the daily charts say. Once 5497 breaks the rising wedge target of 5196 would be attempted to reach.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 28th July 2011




 Daily Chart





Decisive breakout from the rising wedge.The right shoulder of the bearish head and shoulder pattern forming.immediate support at 10941. If breaks then should target the earlier low of 10340.

Supports at 10940-10898-10768  Resistance at 11172-11260-11430.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

S&P500 27th July 2011



 Daily Chart




The down move continues. Support at 50 dema at 1317 and 61.8% retracement of rise from 1296 to 1347 at 1315. Resistance at 1347-1356.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



Half Hourly Chart

  
As mentioned in my daily post today ,"As shown on daily charts 5555 is crucial support and a break would accelerate the momentum on the downside".

The gap between 5541 and 5567 was filled , the support of 5555-5541-5534 broken and now approaching  support at 5497.Break of 5497 will accelerate fall towards target of 5196.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 27th July 2011



 Daily Chart




Bearish candle closing below the downtrendline from 6338 and below the 200 dema once again proving the bears are still active. The OBV chart shown in yesterday's post ( http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/07/reigning-nifty-26th-july-2011.html) had warned of the same.

Half Hourly Chart




Half hourly charts show the gap between 5541 and 5567 partially filled .If 5541-5534 is broken then should find support at 5497.As shown on daily charts 5555 is crucial support and a break would accelerate the momentum on the downside.
 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th July 2011



Daily Chart I



 Daily Chart





Today's candle was extremely bearish engulfing almost 3day's candles.The pennant formation has resistance at 11430 and support at 11068. Break on the upside will target 11678-12045 and break on the downside will target 10430.


Chart II shows the Bank Nifty in a sideways movement since January 2011.The stalemate needs to be resolved to get some direction.Does the slight tilt to the upside convey an upward bias? 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

S&P500 26th July 2011



 Daily Chart



The hanging man spooked the bulls and bears took advantage.The sideways move is within an expanding triangle, shown in green, which promises more downsides.

Supports at 1331-1326-1319. Resistance at 1347-1356-1371.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



 Half Hourly Chart




 Retraced 61.8% of rise from 5496 in a jiffy. Break of  low made at 5577 will test 5496.Breaking 5496 will see continuation of down move to achieve the rising wedge target of 5196




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 26th July 2011




 Daily Chart




 A positive move with the downtrendline from 6338 being broken once again.Support on this trendline is at 5657.5576 should be good support on the redrawn support line of the rising wedge.Test is to see whether the breakout is held this time. Unlike the Bank Nifty the OBV still remains below the downtrendline from the highs made in November 2010.This shows volumes are not keeping up with the move.


OBV 

Half Hourly Chart

Half hourly charts show a breakout from the range made since the last few days with the 5648-5653 levels being strong resistance. Breakout from the range accelerated momentum and the green dotted downtrendline from 5944 was tested but proved too strong to overcome.Now resistance at 5700 5740 to be overcome which will the target 5944 as the 61.8% (of fall from 5944 to 5196) at 5660 too has been overcome.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 26th July 2011



 Daily Chart




The move looks promising with a followup bullish candle today.This is the second continuous day of trade above the downtrendline from 13304 which has failed on earlier breakouts. The close was also above the 61.8% fibo level of fall from 11978 to 10340.

The break above the red pennant promises a move of 1100 points . Support at 11358 needs to hold to  achive this target of  around 12465.

 Resistance at 11451-11673-11978. Support at 11233-11195-11115


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Monday, July 25, 2011

S&P500 25th July 2011




 Daily Chart




An Inside day pattern showing hesitation.The candle formed on the last day of the week too is a hanging man which is bearish. Approaching the highs of the rally at 1356-1371 needs more bullish moves to overcome the resistance. Hesitation at such zones may encourage the bears to take over.

Support at 1335-1327-1321  Reistance at 1356-1362-1371


 
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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



 Half Hourly Chart I



Half Hourly Chart II
 Tick Chart



The sideways move continues.The bulls and bears are in hibernation.Struggle continues at the 61.8% level as seen on chart II. The crucial level to be  overcome is 5660-5659 on the downtrendline from 6338 shown in Chart I . The triangle on tickchart shows the confusion about direction.Break on either side will give a 30 point move.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 25th July 2011



 Daily Chart



 
Half Hourly Chart




The gap up opening and the gap remaining unfilled gave a bullish feeling .But the move remained below the  high of Wednesday's bearsih candle -5645 and the previous high of 5654.The rising wedge break down too remains valid.Resistance from the downtrendline looms large at 5660.

Half hourly charts shows the sideways action more vividly. Till these resistances of 5545-53-60 is scaled decisively bullishness would return.

 
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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 25th July 2011



 Daily Chart




Daily Chart II




Break above the down trendline once again.Difficult to predict whether this time it is for real.But chart II shows it may be so as the OBV has crossed above it and has stayed above it since July 1st.

Resistances at 11370-11388 and 11451 need to be crossed for further bullishness.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Sunday, July 24, 2011

Reigning The Nifty Weekly Update 23rd July 2011



 Weekly Chart




Weekly Chart



An Inside  Pattern was formed where the current candle's range remains within the range of the previous candle.This shows the market participants could not make up their mind about the direction of the market and neither  the bulls nor bears could make their mark.

The downtrendline from 6338 highs continues to be resistance which makes the break above this trendline an important condition for a bullish move. Resistance from this trendline for the coming week is at 5681.

5740 the last peak made in the first week of July needs to be scaled to break the sideways movement of the last two weeks.The high and low of the inside pattern 5654-5497 has a range of 150 points. If  breaks on either side, will help short term traders to take a directional trade of 150 points.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Saturday, July 23, 2011

Reigning The Bank Nifty Weekly Update 23rd July 201



Weekly Chart I




 Weekly Chart II




Another week of sideways movement forming  a doji. The  close  was within the pennant after breaking it intra week. The downtrendline from 13304 proved resistance yet again.Resistance for the coming week is at 11272.

As mentioned last week,the formation of a pennant right after the break down from a bear flag strengthens the bearishness.Both are continuation patterns indicating the downtrend will resume.The bear flag  gives a target of 8100.Support line of the pennant is at 11196 for the week.The green fan line shows the possibility of  melting down to the third line which has support at 10016.

Supports are at 11272-11196-10646-10420  Resistance at 10388-11451-11675



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Friday, July 22, 2011

S&P 500 22nd July 2011




 Daily Chart




With the 61.8% being retraced posibility of scaling 1356-1371 increases. Support at 1323.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Midday Nifty



 Half Hourly Chart



Half Hourly Chart II




Chart II shows bullish breakout from triangle.More confirmation required by cross of 5645-48-53  being earlier highs and 61.8% retracement level.Could move to 5700 levels which will face resistance from the downtrendline from 6338 highs which has been strong resistance to all upmoves.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 22nd July 2011



Daily Chart


Decisive break down from the rising wedge.The target is 5066. Close below the  50 dema which is already bearishly aligned with the 200 dema adds to the bearishness.


 Half Hourly Chart




As mentioned in Midday Nifty , have spotted two sets of cup and handle one small and another large.Both necklines shown in light green with the target in blue.Break of 5555 gives a target of 5450 and break of 5496 gives a target of 5250.The rising wedge target stands at 5196. The first neckline cut ! Play along !


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 22nd July 2011




 Daily Chart




A decisive break from the rising wedge.This gives a target of 10093, a move of 1100 points. Support taken at 38.2% retracement level.The 50 and 61.8% fibo retracements are marked on the chart.

Supports are at 11035-10980-10940. Resistance at 11222-11377.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Thursday, July 21, 2011

S&P500 21st July 2011



 Daily Chart




 A small bodied small ranged candle at resistance.Support taken exactly on the downtrendline.Difficult to say whether it signifies a pause in the near term uptrend from 1296 or a complete waning of the upmove.Till the high of 1256 - 1271 is scaled the sideways to down move will continue.


 Daily Chart II




With only  a potential lower top at 1356 (only if 1258 is broken will a lower top be in place)  it is difficult to declare a downtrend.The higher high of 1371 remains unconquered. So the S&P500 remains in a limbo with a bullish possibility above the upper blue trendline  and a bearish possibility below the lower blue trendline.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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