S&P500 29th September 2011

 Daily Chart

 The stalemate continues with a downward bias. Resistance at 1175-1181  Support at 1145-1116



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 30th September 2011

 Daily Chart

A bullish engulfing candle for the bulls. An outside day for the bears.Result of who was favoured will be known tomorrow.

Resistance at  5122-5169  Support at  4970-4906-4860.

Half Hourly Chart

 This diamond says it is in favour of the bears.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 30th September 2011

Daily Chart

 It was a day traders paradise but for the daily chartist the stalemate continues. An outside day indicating a reversal of the short term uptrend. Resistance at 9756-9940-9972.  Support 9565-9465-9385.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 29th September 2011

 Daily Chart

 So like I said the Bear retreat seems nowhere in sight.Strong support at 1117-1101 and resistance at 1203-1216.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 29th September 2011

Daily Chart

A triangle is forming and  this leg up could test 5162 . Supports at  4918-4854-4758. Resistance at 5006-5126-5162.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 29th September 2011

 Daily Chart

So the indecision continues between 9972-9165. Support now at 9485-9450-9421-9363. Resistance at 9642-9675-9756.
 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 Update 28th September 2011

Daily Chart

 A white candle with a bearish hue. Bears not retreated yet.

Resistance at 1196-1205-1216  and Support at 1177-1167-1155-1145

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 28th September 2011

 Daily Chart

The yo yo in the range continues. Till 5169- 4720 range is not broken the short term trend  is unclear.

Resistance at 5014-5060-5128-5169  Support at  4920-4885-4853-4820.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 28th September 2011

 Daily Chart

The long legged doji's were right in indicating drying up of sellers as the Bank Nifty gapped up and closed at the highs.The range now is between 9965-9172.Only a break and close above or below this range will signal a short term trend.

 Resistance at  9756-9972  and  Support at  9550-9469-9415.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 27th September 2011

 

Daily Chart

 The pullback continues.Resistance at  1165- 1182-1206. Support at  1153-1146-1140-1134.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 27th September 2011

 Daily Chart

The Nifty broke the short term uptrendline intraday but recovered by end of day to close above it. Support now at 4838 - 4764 - 4720. Resistance at 4932-4969-5013.

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty broke out from the bullish wedge shown yesterday but failed to scare away the bears.The last hour of trading has formed a evening star pattern and broke out of a diamond pattern.This indicates more fall unless the diamond proves to be a bullish continuation pattern.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th September 2011

 Daily Chart

Back below the downtrendline from 11433, which is acting as resistance,  for the second day in a row. A second long legged doji too.Minor positive divergence in the Rsi14 and OBV. Long legged doji's are good  harbingers of short term reversals. Beware bears!



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 26th September 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

The bear flag broke decisively and Friday's action just seems to be a pause in the fall. Have redrawn trendlines on the weekly chart to form a pennant with resistance at 1220 and support at 1117 for the week.So a fall below 1117 - 1101 could accelerate downward momentum. 1010 should prove a good support.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 26th September 2011

 Weekly Chart

 Weekly Chart II

The Nifty has once again closed below the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from March 2009 lows.The pennant formation true to it's character was broken on the downside indicating more weakness to come.The fact that the fall from 5740 to 4720 was retraced only around 38.2% conveys weakness.Oscillators too have turned down after making yet another lower high.

As shown on chart one the 4645-4675 is an important level and should not be broken if bullishness is to return.If breaks then the fall towards lower targets upto 4300 and below could open up.I have redrawn the pennant to encompass today's low. If 4855 is held then another leg up to 5163 could play out.

Resistances at 4940-5050-5163  Supports at  4855-4720-4645.

Daily Chart

The daily charts pretty much convey the same story. The long legged doji  shows indecision as neither the bulls nor the bears could win the session.Long legged dojis convey waning momentum of the current trend but the daily oscillators are not yet oversold so this doji may not lead to a reversal.

Immediate support comes at 4835.Resistance at 4980-5032.

Half Hourly Chart 

Desperately looked for some 'support' signs for the daily doji candle and found a falling wedge. Also the trendline joining bottoms with 4911 was broken intraday but recovered soon enough.The gap made on Friday was also closed.

Resistance at 4910-4930-4958. Support at 4829-4766-4720.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 26th September 2011

 Weekly Chart

Last week the broadening formation forewarned rightly of a resumption of the downtrend. The low of the previous week and the uptrendline from lows of 8917 acted as good support.This uptrendline redrawn to encompass the week's low has support at 9375.If held then an upleg of the broadening formation may form.

Resistance from the 100 wema is at 10044.

Daily Chart

 
The daily chart shows a clear break below the expanding formation.A double top at 9972 - 9962 will be confirmed of the previous low of 9260 is broken. Holding the low will see the bulls make another push at 9972 finding resistance at  9450-9547-9628-9700. Support at 9260-8917.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Wanna Shop With Me?

Pujas in Paschimbanga and Diwali in rest of India.September & October every year is the grand sale time. This year we have a sale in the stock markets too ! The only difference  is that one cannot wait for the last week of the sale to get the cheapest rate as one can never predict a bottom. So one starts picking fundamentally strong stocks in a staggered manner.

The Markets are in a correction mode and this is where it is most important to make your shopping lists and watch them closely. Markets can be irrational at such times and it is these types of overreactions where investors can make the most money quickly as long as they stay disciplined. Time to think like an investor and  rebuild your portfolio.

Nishit of http://money-manthan.blogspot.com ( the funda guy)  and me ( the techie ) have made a shopping list once again,  with a difference.

We have selected about 20 stocks and will provide details on the fundamentals, technicals, and levels to buy of the stock.We have also prepared a risk reward matrix for each stock, which will help the  conservative and aggressive investor to allot preference as per their risk profile.The bonus is, we will provide monthly, and when necessary, even specific updates for six months so that none of the opportunities are missed. Check out the demo of 1 sample stock. https://groups.google.com/group/nav-files/browse_thread/thread/710669162137784?hl=en  The entire pack of 15-20 stocks would be on the same lines.

Anyone interested  may write to me at Vipreetsubscription@gmail.com. I would be charging a small fee for the list and the follow-ups.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 23rd September 2011

 Daily Chart

The bear flag is supposed to break down and so it did ! Very easily too. The target is 902! Supports marked on the charts.One may wait for the swing low of 1101 to be broken before going aggressively short.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 23rd September 2011

 Daily Chart

The pennant broke down as per it's characteristic.The target would be a mind blowing 4040.Gap made today at 5060-5133 will act as major resistance.

Support at 4911-4890-4720.  Resistance at 4968-5007-5038. 



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 23rd September 2011

 Daily Chart

Short term uptrendline supports at 9500. Important support at 9260 which is a swing low.Break will lead to test of  8918 low and probably to a lower target of  8548.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 22nd September 2011

 Daily Chart

The shooting star did the S&P500 in.The bulls wait at 1148 which may be hard to defend this time seeing the bear strength. 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 22nd September 2011

 Daily Chart

A higher high which failed to sustain. The breakout from the pennant failed too.Now 5143 and 5033 are the trend deciders for the very short term Beyond which 5169-4911 will be the boundries to be crossed for further direction.

Strong  resistances at 5174-5215-5229-5343. Supports at 5110-5078-5019.

Half Hourly Chart

Macd on half hourly charts showing negative divergence.Divergence signals on Macd have worked well in the past.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 22nd September 2011

 Daily Chart

A broadening pattern is forming which is bearish.Today's move did not have enough momentum to push past the previous high of 9972. If crosses past 9972 and the 50 dema resistance of 10056 then upward momentum may increase to test the resistance line of the broadening pattern.Supports marked on the charts.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 21st September 2011

 Daily Chart

A shooting star at resistance of the 50 dema makes the scene bearish.The long upper shadow shows a strong bear camp at those levels of around 1220. Unless decisively crosses above this level this could be a "return failure" and the last move within the bear flag could be forming.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 21st September 2011

 Daily Chart

The Island reversal was nullified with the Nifty bouncing back sharply with a 108 point rise . The 5and 20 ema whipsaw depicts the sideways movement that Nifty is making within the pennant. If breaks down the pennant is confirmed . If breaks on the upside then the inverted head and shoulder shown on half hourly charts gets confirmed.

The breakout points are very close at 5147 and 5014. 50 dema resistance is at 5176.The resistance from the bearish neckline from which Nifty broke down on 5th August is at 5213.The range between 5169-4911 shown on half hourly charts needs to be broken to gain some momentum.

Daily oscillators are showing strength having moved above the 50 mark. Macd is in buy and about to move above the zero line.With today's  bullish candle the bulls may be in a favourable position.

Half Hourly Chart

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 21st September 2011

 Daily Chart

Bank Nifty made a bullish candle negating the Island reversal.Today's candle has broken out from the downtrendline from previous highs of 11430.The range of 9972-9260 needs to be broken for the upmove to gain momentum.

Daily oscillators are showing strength having moved above the 50 mark. Macd is in buy and about to move above the zero line.With today's  bullish candle the bulls may be in a favourable position.

Till the neckline which is around 10568 is crossed the target of 8700 is achievable.Longs to be traded with caution.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 20th September 2011

 Daily Chart

Resisted once again at the 50 dema making a lower high lower low candle.Must cross the 50 dema hurdle for continued bullishness.

Resistance at 1217-1230-1239  Support at 1182-1166-1151.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 20th September 2011

 Daily Chart

A gap down open from which the bulls never recovered. An island reversal has been formed.This is bearish. An island reversal occurs when there is a gap on both sides of the candle. Island reversals frequently show up after a trending move is in its final stages.The gap is shown below in red.

 Island Reversal

Half Hourly Chart

Lot of bearish signals.Lower high at 5143. The rally from 4720 has faltered at the 38.2% retracement levels which signify that the current trend has not reversed.Every rally since the low of 4720  seems to make bearish patterns. An Island reversal was made today. The current rising wedge was broken down today.

Bears seem to be dominating. If the swing low of 4911 breaks then the bulls are sure to retreat completely.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 20th September 2011

Daily Chart

A gap down open from which the bulls never recovered. An island reversal has been formed  where there is a gap on both sides of the candle. Island reversals frequently show up after a trending move is in its final stages.This is bearish .The gap is shown below in red.

Island Reversal

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 19th September 2011

Weekly Chart

Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly charts

Weekly Line Chart

Line charts show the minor peak crossed successfully.Till the minor low of 1154 is broken the short term trend is up.

The Daily Line Chart has not been successful in giving a "Dow buy" signal.That is a bit confusing ! Wait for the daily to signal a buy by closing above 1219 before going  bullish.

Daily Chart

Resisted at the 50 dema and formed a small white candle indicating momentum may be stalling.The Bear flag is forming well and till it is broken decisively on the upside all Bull attempts will be curbed.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 19th September 2011

 Weekly Chart

Two weeks of sideways action. Last week saw the bulls more active leading to a high of 9972 .This week the bears were active making a low of 9260.A broadening formation is the result which occurs during high volatility, having a huge range but  little direction.This normally results in a break in the dominant trend which at the moment is down.The pattern has  resisted at the 100 wema and the previous low around 10017 which are strong resistances to be crossed for an upmove.

Daily Chart

The breakout from the downtrendline failed once again.Till this happens expect lacklustre movemnet.The high of 9972 and 50 dema at 10092 will be stiff resistances.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 19th September 2011

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

A lower high lower low candle .The pennant depicts the sideways movement nifty has been in since the gap down in the week ending 12th August. 5155 & 4970 are the levels to watch for further direction.Pennants though, are continuation patterns and breakout in the direction of the existing trend.

Stiff resistance at 5115  &  5350.

Daily Chart

The Nifty closed above the resistance line of the falling wedge, but failed to bring in  bullishness as the highs were not sustainable forming a black candle. The resistance line of the pennant which could also be the neckline of an inverted head and shoulder is at 5150.The support line is at 4971.trading above 5060 can attempt to cross the neckline and failure to stay above 5060 will test the 4971 levels.

Half Hourly Chart

So we have an inverted head and shoulder pattern which is bullish, an upward sloping  broadening pattern  which is bearish and a rising wedge , shown in red, which is bearish too.Holding 5073-5120 for the day will lead to break of the neckline. Break may find support at 4972-4989 which is the support line of the broadening formation.

Resistance at 5155-5229-5350. Supports 5073-4989-4945-4910

Simply Put

I love Line charts since they make analysis simple.The falling wedge formed since June second half has given a breakout.The trendline drawn in the middle joining a series of lows will give stiff resistance.If the breakout is maintained, and the middle trendline is scaled  then probabilities of  testing the downtrendline from November 2010 highs is high. The point of contention for the week is 5065.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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