Reigning The Nifty 30th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

A small bodied candle maintaining the  lower high and lower low pattern on above average volumes and  marginally negative breadth.  The positives of today's session was that the close held the 5400 level . The 161.8% fibo level of fall from 5451 to 5407 at 5380 offered good support.

The last  four days action has formed a falling channel which could be labeled as a flag . This is bullish and one could expect the Nifty to break out from the upper trendline.The trendline  offers resistance at 5418.The lower trendline has support at 5365.A break below this trendline would be bearish and Nifty would seek lower levels.  Daily macd continues to be in sell mode.

The half  hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern with the neckline coinciding with the 161.8% fibo level of fall from 5451 to 5407 around 5380.This makes the 5380 level important support.The 200 period ema which gave good support today is at 5386. The next strong support is  at 5315 which is the 61.8% ( 5210-5477 rise) and the 23.6%(4786-5477) fibo levels coinciding.

Till now the nifty has traded within last weeks candle range between 5353-5477.A break on either side could give direction .A close above 5400 would be bullish as it would be a breakout on monthly charts.

Supports are at 5400-5380-5365-5353-5315   and  Resistance at 5418-5450-5477-5515.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 29th July , 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Daily Line Chart had been  showing  weakness in Nifty since two days and today the uptrendline on candle charts too was broken decisively forming a bearish engulfing pattern , promising more downsides. The important 5400 level too was broken and Nifty closed below it at 5497.Oscillators are above the midpoint but moving down after showing negative divergence. The Macd has given a sell. More fall possible.

The 200 period ema on half hourly charts lends support at 5385. All , 5,10,20,50 emas are bearishly aligned.
Oscillators have reached the oversold region.

Supports at 5375-5385-5353-5315   and  Resistance at  5400-5430-5455-5477.

Strong support at 5315 which is the 61.8% ( 5210-5477 rise) and the 23.6%(4786-5477) fibo levels coinciding.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 28th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Yesterday I wrote, " The Nifty needs to trade above 5427 to remain above this trendline and close above 5437".The trendline in question being  the uptrendline from 4787. The Nifty traded for a while below 5427 but finally broke out and retested 5450 levels, suffered from vertigo and fell to close below 5437. The close below 5437 ensured that the breakdown from the uptrendline on Line charts continued.So the sideways movement with a downward bias continues , making marginally  lower highs and lower lows for the second day in a row.

The  range today was  5407-5451, which makes it important support and resistance.the fall from 5451 has taken support at 5424 which is exactly at the 61.8% level of the rise from 5407 to 5451.A fall below 5424 would therefore show weakness.Nifty will show strength only above 5441, which is the 61.8% level of rise from 5424 to 5451.It is also the uptrendline support making it very important to close above this level .

Negative divergences are intact on daily oscllators.The breadth was marginally negative and volumes were higher on advancing shares than on declining shares.

Supports are at 5415-5407-5400-5375-5353. Resistance at  5435-5441-5451-5477.

 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 27th July , 2010

 Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart 

As mentioned in my post for 26th July, the bearishness of the shooting star was  confirmed today by a bearish candle.Breadth was negative and volumes average. Volumes on declining stocks were higher than on advancing stocks.The uptrendline once again lent good support. This is the fifth strike on the trendline . Coupled with this is the narrowing of  trading range as depicted by the rising wedge. Negative divergences on oscillators too have been cautioning bulls since some time.On line charts the trendline is already broken increasing the possibility of  lower levels for the Nifty.

The Nifty needs to trade above 5427 to remain above this trendline and close above 5437. Break of this trendline could be extremely bearish giving a 690 point move on the downside.A break below 5350, which is the swing low, would be further confirmation of a breakdown in the Nifty .  A reversal of this view would require a breakout above the high of 5477.

Strong supports are at 5400-5350-5315  and  Resistance at 5450-5477-5518.

 
Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 26th July , 2010

 

Weekly Chart

The Nifty made a higher high and higher low candle making a new high of 5477 in the rally which began in March 2009 . So the uptrend continues. The oscillators continue to show waning momentum by way of negative divergences,   cautioning the bulls.

 Daily Chart

Today's  candle made a higher high and higher low but formed a shooting star which is an ominous sign of bulls losing strength. This is a potential reversal candle. The negative divergence on daily and weekly oscillators   give weight to the shooting star.However, action on next trading session is necessary to confirm it's bearishness. Watch out  for a bearish candle on Monday on good volumes.The 5400 level was strong resistance which has been overcome decisively. Break below this would give courage to the bears.

Supports at 5412-5353-5329    and  Resistance at  5477-5510.

Stop Loss for positional longs at 5350  and longs with a shorter time frame at  5400.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 23rd July , 2010

 

Daily Chart 

Yesterday's "Inside Pattern" range broke out on the upside after teasing traders for most part of the trading session. Volumes were high , much higher than the last few days of consolidation. This is a positive. The immediate target should be 5479. The inverted head and shoulder target is  of 5513. The Nifty is taking it's time to achieve the target.

Daily oscillators have to still shake off the negative divergence. Half hourly oscillators are showing strength once again and all ema's bullishly aligned. 

The high of 5453 needs to be scaled decisively else the drift may start once again.

Supports are at 5400-5353-5272  and  Resistance is at 5453-5505-5518.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 22nd July , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty continues to be in a deep slumber  turning sides groggily on extremely low volumes  that is sending traders into a tizzy. The candle   formed today  was an inside pattern depicting indecision once again. The pattern range is 5353-5416  which needs to be broken to get a sense of direction. Breadth was marginally positive.

Daily oscillators continue showing negative divergence.

Half hourly charts show an elongated right shoulder forming. Oscillators  are above the 50 mark showing a neutral outlook.Break above the downtrendline from the top of 5453 is proving elusive . A breakout from this short term trendline will lead to increased probability of more upsides.While break of the neckline will take the nifty to lower levels.

Supports are at 5384-5353-5347-5272   and  Resistance at  5400-5416-5453.

 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 21st July , 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Todays candle tells us of the tussle between bulls and bears with neither winning. The bulls succeeded early morning and  kept at it till noon raising hopes of a break on the upside. The bears however gained strength after that and succeeded in a downside break from the neckline support of 5360 to end the session exactly at the up trend line support.This is bearish as the session ended at the lowest point.Volumes were low and breadth marginally negative.

The break of the neckline, which held well for last 8 sessions, does not bode well. The negative divergences on all time frames have been cautioning since some time. The head and shoulder pattern with a target of 5266 has broken on the downside ( the session ended at 5357). Expect Nifty to breakdown tomorrow.


The 20 dema has support at 5319 and 50 dema at 5241.

The half hourly chart shows support taken at the neckline as per EOD figure.The 200 period ema has support at 5341.

Supports are at  5360-5341-5332-5275.  Resistance is at 5370-5416-5453.

Caution to take fresh longs only on a break above 5453 continues. Positional longs  may book partial profits and continue holding the remaining positions with a stop loss of  5275.Trend reversal only on a decisive break of 5200.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 20th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Nifty continued the sideways movement within the making of what looks like the right shoulder of a bearish head and shoulder pattern with neckline at 5360. Volumes were very low and breadth marginally negative.

The support of the uptrendline of this rally  stands at 5360 for tomorrow. The 5400 level is proving stiff resistance. This range of 5360-5400 needs to be broken to give direction to Nifty. The bias at the moment is more towards breaking the 5360 level.

Daily oscillators are  showing negative divergence. The stochastics has drifted lower below the 50 level.

Supports at 5360-5277-5225  and Resistance is at  5400-5453-5488.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 19th July , 2010

Weekly Chart

The nifty maintained the breakout above the downtrendline from   January 2008  highs keeping in line with the past pattern discussed in  earlier posts.  The candle formed for the week shows profit booking from 5453.My reading is it was a reaction area ---  the 161.8% fibo level of 5463 of the fall from 5367 to 5225--and thus profit booking .A higher high and higher low was maintained vindicating holding longs.

Weekly oscillators tell a cautionary story. The negative divergences persist. Macd  which is also showing negative divergence shows a silver lining as it continues to be in buy mode for the second week.

 Daily Chart

The breakout above 5400 eluded the Nifty as it was a touch and go at the 5401 level. Today's candle was a bullish engulfing candle, though the  range of both yesterday and today are extremely small , thus reducing the reliability on it's bullishness. However today's candle stalled the bearishness of the last two days encouraging my theory of the reaction from the high of 5453 as mere profit booking rather than a trend reversal.

The daily oscillators too are showing negatvie divergence forcing the longs to be cautious.The head and shoulders bearish pattern shown on half hourly charts yesterday seems to be forming the right shoulder . Neckline is at 5360.Break of the neckline can take the nifty to 5265 levels.

The supports are at 5360-5345-5310-5280. Resistance is at  5400-5453-5480.

Trade long with a strict stop at 5280.Those with a shorter term focus could watch the neckline break .

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 16th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty continued to show lack of energy by making a lower top lower bottom candle with a small range of 36 points. Trade was below the 5400 mark . Advancing Volumes were greater than Declining Volumes which is a positive.Breadth was marginally negative.Volumes on the Nifty were low.Daily oscillators are starting to move down after showing negative divergence.

The half hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern which can take the nifty to 5253 levels.This is highly probable as the half hourly oscillators have not gone below their oversold levels as yet.The neckline,at 5360 levels,  holding tomorrow is therefore very crucial.

Weekly Chart

The weekly open was at 5352 and if  Nifty closes below this level tomorrow, it would form a  bearish candle.The weekly pattern which I have been discussing since sometime  still holds unless 5276 is taken out.

Supports are at 5360-5332-5315-5282. The 10dema offers support at 5340 and 20 dema at 5296. Resistance is at 5400-5453-5478.

If already long then keep a strict stop loss of 5285. Fresh longs only on a cross of 5453. 



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 15th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Nifty continued to make a higher high and higher low , but disappointed with profit booking, leaving a bearish long upper shadow.The breakout above 5400 was thus short lived.Breadth was negative and volumes good. The volumes on losing stocks was much higher than on gaining stocks. The Sensex managed to catch up with the Nifty and made a new high ,but like the Nifty  could not maintain the breakout .

Daily oscillators are showing   negative divergence .

The signal is bearish though more evidence would be required before declaring a top.The top made at 5453 was a reaction area as it was close to the 161.8% fibo level of 5463 shown in my posts since last few days. Thus it could be mere profit booking. Also the previous day's low at 5357 was not been violated. . If this fails then support of the uptrendline at 5315 should hold. Nifty could attempt to move higher till it holds these levels.

Supports are at  5350-5315-5285  and  Resistance at  5400-5453-5470.

If already long then keep a strict stop loss of 5285. Fresh longs only on a cross of 5453.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 14th July , 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty made a new high at 5406 and also closed at a new high of 5400 in this rally. The high of 5406 though was not very impressive as it was only 3 points above yesterday's high. The  consolidation which started yesterday after making a new high at 5402, continued today till it broke out around 2pm to make the new high. Volumes were good.

The Sensex ,however, is still to achieve this feat. The sensex also made a lower high and lower low candle. Volumes were low on the sensex.  Daily oscillators too are lagging behind in crossing their earlier highs.The disparity with the Nifty and the negative divergences on the oscillators calls for some caution.

Supports  are at 5376-5350-5285  and  Resistance at  5463-5495.

Trade long with a strict stop at  5350 .

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 13th July , 2010

 

Daily Chart 

The uptrend continued as anticipated. Nifty broke out of the range high of 5367, registered  a new high in this rally at 5402 .Volumes were good and breadth was marginally positive. The daily Macd has given a buy once again. However, the macd, stochastics and Rsi14 are all showing negative divergence as they have not scaled their tops corresponding  with Nifty's top at 5367.The Sensex too failed to  make a new  top above 18047.


On redrawing the  trendlines, the upper trendline offers resistance at 5459 which coincides with the 161.8% fibo level of latest  fall  till  5210 from 5367, which is at 5463.

Weekly resistance is at 5495 , range break target is 5525, as well as inverted head and shoulders target is  5513-- refer weekly analysis posted yesterday.

Supports are at  5367-5280.  Resistance at 5402-5460-5495.

Trade long for above mentioned targets with a strict stop loss of 5280 or  hedge your longs as negative divergences persist.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 12th July , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

Weekly Charts

As shown in Chart II the pattern wherein, " the downtrendline from January  2010  joining highs made in the rally from March 2009 proved strong resistance at first but nifty finally scaled it to make new highs in the rally"  has been maintained with the Nifty closing above 5284 to breakout from the down trendline. Continuing to conform to the pattern the nifty may continue to trade higher for at least the next two to three weeks.

The stochastics has given a buy once again in the overbought region  and the Macd which had been giving an uptick since the last three weeks has given a buy again.The Rsi 14 is maintaining above the 50 level and moving up.

However the negative divergences are intact. Volumes too were very low. Breadth improved.

Trading above 5345 will face resistance at 5400- 5495  and  trading below it would find support at 5300-5225-5145- 5037.

Daily Charts

The Nifty broke out from the flag decisively but failed to breakout of the high of the range at 5367 on good volumes and positive breadth. The target for this pattern breakout is 5767.Oscillators too are showing strength by moving up before reaching oversold zone. Macd is ready to give a buy. All ema's  are bullishly aligned.

The range of 5210-5367 still needs to be broken . The Nifty seems to be on the way to achieve the feat of breaking out on the upside. If broken the Nifty will have a range break target of 5525.The inverted head and shoulders is still valid and has a target of  5513--Refer post of 15th June 2010.

Supports are at 5286-5225 and Resistance at  5367-5381-5399.

Trade long with proper hedge or with a tight stop of 5285.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 9th July , 2010

 Daily Chart

 Daily Chart II

The Nifty broke out of the green flag intraday but quietly settled into the flag area at close. The close was exactly on the upper trendline of the flag at 5297.So the whipsaw continues within the flag. the close was marginally above the red trendline from January 2008 highs, so I would not like to call it a breakout.Moreover volumes were much below average and much lower than that of yesterday.

The 5 (in red)  and 10 (in blue) demas show the whipsaw , giving a sell , a buy, a sell and then a buy again at end of day today. The 20 dema (in green) has provided good support today too.

Repeat, the range of 5210-5367 is still unbroken. Unless there is a breakout from these levels whipsaws will continue.

Supports are at 5288-5225-5206. Resistance is at  5320-5350-5367.

Weekly Chart

I am putting up this chart again. If the same pattern is followed then this leg should continue up to make a new top in the rally from March 2009.Trading and closing above 5284 could ensure that.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 8th July , 2010

 Daily Chart

The whipsaw continues within the flag. The red trendline from January 2008 highs proved resistance once again today.The Nifty seems to be forming support around the 5225-5233 area shown in thick red line. Technically today's candle formed  an Inside Day pattern.The range though was the same as yesterday minus just a point from the top and 2 points from the bottom, showing no conviction from the bulls or bears to take decisive action.However the fact that the volumes were substantially higher than yesterday , points towards more selling pressure than buying pressure.

The 5  and 10  demas continue in sell mode. The 20 dema  has provided good support once again.The daily Macd continues in sell mode.

The range of 5210-5367 is still unbroken. Unless there is a breakout from these levels whipsaws will continue.

Supports are at 5225-5206-5182  and  Resistance at 5291-5350.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 7th July , 2010

 

 Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

A huge white candle after a doji day signals bullishness. The doji indicated indecision which was followed by a huge white candle showing the decision made in favour of a rise.However , till the flag is decisively broken out and the 5367 level taken out, the confusion will continue among the bulls and bears turning them into pigs.The red trendline from January 2008 highs proved resistance once again today.Breadth was marginally positive and volumes very low.

The 5 (in red)  and 10 (in blue) demas show the whipsaw , giving a sell and then a buy again at end of day today. The 20 dema (in green) has provided good support since the 30th of June.The 23.6% fibo level of rise from 4786 to 5367 joins the 20 dema in the support.

The range of 5210-5367 is still unbroken. Unless there is a breakout from these levels whipsaws will continue.

Supports are at 5230-5182-5145.  Resistance at  5293-5330-5367.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 6th July , 2010

Daily Chart

Nifty  formed a doji today on eexxttrreemmeellyy  low volume. Macd on daily charts is in sell mode.

Support at 5206-5191.  Resistance at 5308-5315.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 5th July , 2010

Weekly Chart I

Weekly Chart II

Last week Nifty  formed a shooting star which was highly bearish. Bearish confirmation is required after the Shooting Star and can take the form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.The bearish confirmation on the Nifty did not confirm with a gap down or a long black candle nor were the volumes heavy. However forming of a lower high lower low candle shows lack of strength to move beyond the high of the shooting star.The fact that the move past 5367 to scale the previous peak at 5399 made 2 months ago has been eluding , adds to the bearish possibilities.

The stochastics is overbought, the Rsi 14 continues to make lower high and lower low since October 2009, Macd too has been in tandem with the Rsi 14 and is in a sell mode. Only a move above 5367 will nullify the bearishness.

Last week I showed Chart II where  the downtrendline from January  2010  joining highs made in the rally from March 2009, being strong resistance at first but nifty finally scaled it to make new highs in the rally. The Nifty may thus correct some more only to finally scale the trendline.The Nifty seems to be confirming this view as of now.

Weekly Support at 5195-5049  and   Resistance at 5284-5323.

Daily Chart

Daily Charts show a decisive close below the uptrending channel giving support to the follow up bearishness necessary for the shooting star.However, the correction from 5367 is showing a flag formation which will prove bullish if the resistance at 5313 is overcome. Bearishness continues if the support from this flag  at 5196 is broken.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 2nd July , 2010

 Daily Chart

 The Nifty has shifted the range a little on the downside to 5206 and range trading will be difficult. The uptrending channel has been broken on the downside projecting more weakness than strength.

Resistances are at  5280-5298-5319. Supports at 5206-5150-5069.

Stops for longs could be placed at 5150 as the area of 5167-5150 should be strong support.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - Monthly Update July , 2010

 Monthly Chart

Monthly Chart II

• Rising wedge formation of the entire rally from March 2009 which is bearish.
• The entire rise since May 2009 has been on falling volumes.
• The target of the rising wedge is 2356.
• Nifty has closed below the wedge for the second month consecutively. 
• Oscillators have been in negative divergence since some time and continue to show weakness.
• The Nifty has been in a range of  around 850 points since September 2009. Break below this range at 4538 will give an immediate target of  3676.

Monthly charts are not too robust since some time as oscillators have been showing falling momentum.  July will give a clearer picture of the effects of the rising wedge.

June was a positive month on rising volumes and ended close to the upper part of the range. The candle was also a higher high higher low raising hopes of more strength. Maintaining above 5295 will give strength to attempt 5400-5550.

Targets of the rising wedge given here may take a long time to be achieved as short term action will be guided by shorter term charts.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 1st July , 2010

 

 Daily Chart

Nifty took support exactly at the level of 5210 mentioned yesterday. The uptrendline has been maintained on a closing basis though intraday it was broken .Daily oscillators have turned up without reaching the oversold zone which is a sign of strength.The nifty has recovered and moved above the 61.8% fibo level of fall from 5367-5210. This shows that  nifty has strength to target 5367 and above that 5400.

Support at 5295-5277-5260.  Resistance at 5324-5339-5350-5367.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com