help advait

whoever reads this please log into the discussion forum at www.vipreetsafetrading.com and help advait with his problem as I am not able to concentrate on a reply, thank you.
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Thank You

Thank you everyone for being with me at a time like this. My niece passed away even before i could get onto the flight due to a drug side effect. My sister is devastated and we are trying to calm her. May take more time getting back to my work.

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Will be away

My niece is serious so am rushing to Mumbai. Hoping she gets ok soon and I am back soon.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--24th April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

I mentioned,
"I would not recommend going bearish 'naked' as the fall seems " hesitant" " and it proved rightly so. I hope my readers had followed a similar strategy.

Once the Nifty broke out from the opening high of 3353 and then there was no looking back. The falling wedge proved it's bullishness once the resistance of the wedge at 3371 was was broken. 61.8% was retraced of the fall from 3511 to 3297.

The three breathers that I am talking about have taken 3, 4 and 5 days. Each time the breakout from the ranges have been decisive with a huge bullish candle.We have to see whether this time too the huge bullish candle formed today will be able to take the Nifty across 3511 invalidating the bearishness of the shooting star on weekly charts.

Trading above today's high of 3440 will take the Nifty to 3511. The target for the falling wedge is wedge high point 3511-wedge low point 3297 = 214 + 3371 breakout point = 3585. Further targets are 3648-3740 marked on the charts.

Yes, the chameleons can change colour from red (bearish) to green (bullish) with a stop loss of 3300 as the break is from a bullish pattern and the Daily and Weekly charts are still in "buy on dips" mode. Red bears who are short on break of rising wedge need not turn redder in anger. If you are still short, keep astrict stop at 3511 levels. Accept market moves as they come to make trading emotionally easy.

Look for action around 3500-3511 levels as scaling these levels can mean resumption of the upmove. The 3300 level is significant to call an intermediate reversal if and when taken out.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty --23rd April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart


Nifty Daily Time Study

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Yesterday I wrote,
"The consolidation / distribution continues and I am waiting patiently for confirmation whether we break up or down. This rally has had 3 breathers and we are into the third one. The earlier 2 lasted for 3 days and 4 days as shown on the daily chart , including the day of the high. The present breather has completed 4 days. So today's action may be crucial to forming an opinion about future movement. I would be on the lookout for a sell sign more than a buy sign at this moment in time."

The third breather is now into the 5th day as the Nifty took support on the falling wedge, exactly at 3297 . However it did break the "inside day" breakout level of 3354 mentioned in the weekend report. Break of 3307 was anticipated and did happen intra day but finally closed above it keeping confusion intact. Yesterday was the 4th down day and 3rd in a row which is happening for the first time since thie upmove from 2539. Also each day has a lower close. So bias is bearish. ".

The verdict is 'cautiously bearish" . New terminology by me. (I have only heard of "cautiously optimistic".) One can take light short positions or else use options . I would not recommend going bearish 'naked' as the fall seems " hesitant ".

Madhu has asked me "why should we not wait for 2865 target if wedge on 30 minute charts has broken?" Yes, one could do that and the decision is yours. Since I am not running a paid service I do not give definite calls of this type. If I do then it becomes my responsiblity to see my readers through the trade, meaning I must tell when to get out too, which most blogs giving free calls do not do. I would want the reader to be guided, but the final decision of taking the trade should be yours. I hope I am clear and not misunderstood.

Sudhin, I have given you 100%. Other queries I will answer over the weekend.

All relevant supports and resistances are marked on the charts.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty- 22nd April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart with Time Study

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

The consolidation / distribution continues and I am waiting patiently for confirmation whether we break up or down. This rally has had 3 breathers and we are into the third one. The earlier 2 lasted for 3 days and 4 days as shown on the daily chart , including the day of the high. The present breather has completed 4 days. So today's action may be crucial to forming an opinion about future movement.

There is just one difference in the present breather and that is it is downward sloping whereas the other two were equialteral triangles. This means we are making lower lows too, unlike the other two breathers.The formation looks like a falling wedge with resistance at 3400 and support at 3297 for today.

A long legged doji was formed for the second day in a row with a lot of volatility depicting great indecision and thus confusing us about the direction. At extreme levels this is a sign of reversal. The daily oscillators have started losing momentum and are moving down from over bought levels. Keep the break of rising wedge in 30 minute charts discussed earlier, in mind.I would be on the lookout for a sell sign more than a buy sign at this moment in time.

Let us see if the market finally decides where to go today.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty --21st April , 2009

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Once again a volatile day with no direction. There was just one indication which may give some direction and that is today's action made a lower low and a lower high . This shows that bulls have lost the will to push prices higher and that the bears did manage to push prices lower. So today's brownie points goes to the bears.

The "Inside Day" break was not decisive as it was only intra day, but a break nevertheless. There was no attempt to even scale the inside day's high of 3490 , leave alone the previous day's high of 3511. Thus we have a lower low on 3 consecutive days. This downtrend line joining the lower highs and the trendline joining the lower lows has formed a consolidation/distribution pattern. A break form either of these trendlines will help us decide whether we are in for a correction or whether it was a consolidation for further upmoves to reach the targets of 3648-3740 as discussed earlier and marked on the daily charts.

The Rising wedge break has already given us reasons to short and now there are a series of bearish candle patterns . So one should book profits/cut losses in their longs. Shorts can be taken once we break the support of 3307.

I am not happy with what I have written as I am not able to give an outright buy or sell call. But I am satisfying myself by saying I am still right because the Nifty action at the moment is confusing !!

Supports are at 3354-3336-3330-3307. All levels are marked on the charts for reference. Resistances are at 3440-3456-3551.




Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty --Week Ended 17th April,2009

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart


Half Hourly Chart Showing Targets

Once again we have a white candle on the Weekly Charts but with a difference. This candle signals selling at higher levels. It is a shooting star. The Daily charts too have formed a shooting star on 17th. This candle adds weight to the bearish engulfing pattern formed on 16th.

A shooting star is ominous when formed during an uptrend (minor or major). At this point, it appears as though the longs are in complete control. On the day of the shooting star, the rally continues in full force but soon , however, profit taking ensues. The stock closes near the open, forming a small real body. A shooting star therefore has a small real body and a large upper shadow. Typically, there will be either no lower shadow or a very small one. The candle warns of the end of an uptrend. The characteristics are,

• Small real body formed near the bottom of the price range
• The upper shadow at least three times as long as the body.
• The lower shadow is small or nonexistent.

A lot of indications are biased towards the bearish side.

• Both, the weekly and daily candle conform to the characteristics and we may have a reversal /correction on hand .
  
• The fact that I have been talking about the uptrend mature for a correction time wise (refer last week's analysis) , is reinforced by the appearance of the shooting star.
  
• The 200 dema is a huge resistance and the Nifty has not been able to convincingly scale it.
  
• The weekly stochastics is turning down from overbought levels (These levels have been reached last on January 2008).
  
• On half hourly charts the rising wedge which is a bearish pattern in an uptrend, has broken down .
  
• The Nifty has not been able to close above 3450, the 50% retracement level of fall from 4650.
  
• The weekly close has not been able to scale above the channel marked in red on the weekly chart.

Bullish indications are

• downtrendlines from January 2008 top and from 30th April 2008 top have been scaled successfully.

To sum up,

The weekly charts have support at 3308 from the Down trendlines. Resistance from the red channel is at 3405.

The action on 17th formed an inside day--explained in my earlier posts. So trade on a break of low or high made on the 16th. Trade long if breaks aboved 3511 the high of 16th , and trade short if breaks 3354 the low of 16th. Trade with appropriate stops as bearishness has to be proved by breaking the uptrendline from 2539 and bullishness will prevail only on scaling 3511.

Important Supports and Resistances shown marked on the charts.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty --17th April,2009

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Sensex Chart Showing Dark Cloud Cover Pattern

Nifty Daily Chart Showing Bearish Engulfing Pattern

So the waiting is over. We finally had a down day.

The Nifty formed a bearish engulfing pattern.Though on the charts it does not look exactly text bookish ( mainly because of practice of the NSE to show the previous day's closing as the opening price) , I would prefer to identify it so, as the opening price on trading terminal showed it as 3500. Also the sensex opened gap up confirming my assumption.

This bearish pattern consists of two candlesticks, the first is white(up day) and the second black (down day).The pattern is valid in the overbought conditions or at resistance points. The bearish second day candle engulfs the previous day's body and creates a potential short-term reversal. However, further weakness is required for bearish confirmation of this reversal pattern.


The candle pattern on the sensex is a "Dark Cloud Cover". The dark cloud cover pattern is made up of two candlesticks, the first is white and the second black. Both candlesticks should have fairly large bodies. The black candlestick must open above the previous close and close below the midpoint of the white candlestick's body.Further weakness is required for bearish confirmation of this reversal pattern.

For both patterns to be considered bearish reversals, there should be an existing uptrend to reverse. It does not have to be a major uptrend, but should be up for the short term or at least over the last few days.

So , the nifty was overbought, and today's action, was to be confirmation of breakout above the 200dema which is significant resistance. Thus one may look for confirmation of a reversal of the uptrend.Also, on log scale, the downtrendline from January 2008 has resisted strongly.

The rising wedge which I have been talking about since a few days has been broken decisivelyon half hourly charts. The targeted move for this is measured from the lowest trough --2962 to the highest peak --3511. So 3511-2962=549 point move. Break point is 3421. So Target is 3421-549=2872. . One can therefore go short with stop loss a few points above the break point of 3421. 3460 should be a good stop as it it was an intraday lower top today.

This has been a very strong uptrend so one may have to face a lot of pressure in trying to take a directional trade. The recent uptrendline is not yet broken. Nifty may find immediate support on this trendline which supports for today at 3197-3223. Other levels are marked on the chart.

Expect a lot of volatility. So be very strict in keeping stop losses.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--16th April, 2009

Chart Showing Rising Wedge

Fibonacci Resistance Chart

Half Hourly Chart showing Supports

One more resistance crossed smoothly amongst so much skepticism. Me too amongst the skeptics. One more lesson learned to stick to my indicators and not try to call the turns. Well, I was cautiously optimistic so did not short but was not long too ! Anyway, no regrets. So long as I followed the technical signals.

So underlying bullishness was proved once again.

• the early morning correction of 70 odd points was gobbled up in no time and we rallied 100 points from yesterday's close!
• the 50% retracement level at 3450 was scaled smoothly.
• resistance at 200dema was scaled too.
• support at 3307 mentioned since last two days held strongly.
• scaled downtrendline joining May 2008 and September 2008 tops.

Indications of a correction still exist

• negative divergences in intraday charts intact.
• rising wedge still threatens.
• as per past history we are due for a correction (up legs have consumed just 5 to 6 weeks mentioned in my weekly write up)
  

Looking at the pattern of the upmove 3650 should be the next stop which coincides with top on 14th October 2008 at 3648 . If this level is overcome then 3816 should be strong resistance as shown on daily fiboncci resistance chart.

Supports in case of a correction are 3400-3300.The rising wedge supports are at 3395-3450. Other support and resistance levels are marked on the chart.

Positional Longs could shift the stop loss to 3417 which was today's breakout point .

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--15th April, 2009

Half Hourly Support Chart

Fibonacci Resistance Chart

Daily Charts

Half Hourly Chart Showing Divergence

I was "cautiously optimistic" yesterday and continue to be so. This inspite of having an up day.


Bullish Case :

• Day's close above the green channel shown on the daily charts.
• Oscillators RSI and Stochastics overbought but showing strength.
• Doji pattern of previous day nullified as a higher low was made yesterday.
• All corrections are only intra day indicating good buying support.
  

Bearish Case:

• Divergence in daily Macd intact.
• Resisted at 200dema second day in a row.
  
• Rising wedge formation continues to threaten.
• Divergences on half hourly charts intact.
• As per past history we are due for a correction (up legs have consumed just 5 to 6 weeks mentioned in my weekly write up)
• Good yo-yo during the day indicating confusion about direction of trend.

So prognosis remains much the same. Signs of uptrend waning are not strong enough to call shorts. Positional longs can shift stop loss to 3335 low of 13th April.

Next resistance is 50% retracement level at 3450 of fall from 4650. 200dema is at 3395.

Supports of rising wedge are at 3335-3390 on half hourly charts. On daily charts supports are at 3378 (Green channel upper trendline ) and 3323 (rising wedge). Fibonacci and other important supports are marked on the chart.

Trade cautiously with appropriate stop losses.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Half Hourly Chart with Moving Averages

Posting the chart with moving averages as promised.
I have not authenticated certain registrations as the usernames smelled of spam. If there is anyone whose registration is not authenticated please re- register with usernames which is closer to your names , please. This way I know it is not spam.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Forum Post

Check out my reply for day trading at www.vipreetsafetrading.com/forum . Please be critical in your replies. This will help all. Btw I dont make paid calls. Also I will put up charts which will help you trade. BUT also learn to do some work yourself!!

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty-Week ended 9th April,2009

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Halfy Hourly Divergence Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Good Week . Up 131 points. This is where positional traders score over the intra day chameleons. These chameleons must have been tired changing colors in the 3 day week. The "buy on dips" is easier said than done in such volatile times. Before you can say d-i-p dip the dip is over! So the diciplined positional traders who had their indicators in place and have followed them scrupulously are the only ones who made any profits.

Bullish ?

• So the weekly charts are strong.


• The daily charts are strong too with just one big down day in the entire rise !

Bearish?

• Well, each down leg has consumed 10-11 weeks and each up leg 5-7 weeks.This up leg is already 5 weeks old.


• On daily charts negative divergence is seen in the macd histogram, and other oscillators are overbought.


• The 200dema has proved resistance on last trading day.


• Doji candle on daily chart, after a prolonged uptrend conveying that the trend has peaked or is close to peaking .


• The intra day charts have started showing negative divergences and the rising wedge looks threatening.

Choose- तेजी या मंदी ?

Ok ! dont look so confused !

तेजी of course ! But ----

So what should one do?

Positional longs from low levels can shift the stop loss to the last low of 3307 which was tested twice during the day. Thus the third time it is tested will either make a solid support or a decisive break. This will be first sign of weakness and agressive chameleons could short with stop loss of recent high 3401. If you are a bear in hibernation, wait for decisive break of the rising wedge which has supports for 13th April at 3283-3335.

Also look for a down day to confirm the bearish warning of the Doji. After a long uptrend or downtrend , the appearance of a doji candlestick can be an ominous warning sign . They can often mark major turning points. So be prepared to take appropriate action in case we have a down day on 13th.

Dont forget to place your stops as this market is neither faithful to the bear nor the bull.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--9th April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart

Half Hourly Nifty Chart Showing Wedge Formation

Half Hourly Nifty Divergence Chart

Half hourly Chart :

The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. This pattern is a bearish reversal pattern when formed during uptrends.The half hourly chart shows a rising wedge formation. The RSI(14) shows bearish divergence. The ROC(12) has failed to scale the last high made suggesting that the move may not be all hunky dory.

Daily Chart :

The Macd histogram is in negative divergence on the daily charts. The light green channel shown on daily charts has resistance at 3368.Breakout target of channel is 4130.

Supports and Resistance levels are shown on the charts.


Positional longs from low levels , should shift stops to 3150-- the low made today. If not long, then stay out. One may go short only if the Rising Wedge is broken decisively. Stop Loss would be a few points above the breakdown point on such short positions taken.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--8th April,2009

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Nifty Fibonacci Chart

Nifty Monthly Chart

I had shown the RSI(6) on monthly charts on 28th February,2009 predicting a possible bottom in place. You can read it at the following link :
http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2009/02/bottom-near.html
Well I did get comments that I was predicting a bottom too soon. But now with 3240 scaled looks like the bottom prediction was right. The January 2008 down trendline resistance on the monthly chart is at 3555.

Trade long on dips. Look for weakness on break of 3198. 3122 looks like strong support--previous resistance and 23.6% retracement level. Recent uptrendline shown in red offers support for the day at 3095-3122 levels. So watch out for 3122 levels. Break could take it to 2960 which has also proved to be strong support.

Immediate resistance is at Fibonacci levels of 3450 which is the 50% retracement level of fall from 4650.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Replies to comments

Amit Gulati wants to know what a death cross is. A crossover resulting from a short-term moving average breaking below a long-term moving average is a death cross. Death because it is bearish .

Manoj Chopra said, Good Postings - but want to clarify few points.you say bear market rally but target 4820 , if we go to those level -still u think its bear market rally.The target you have given on fib(4820)levels -50% levels are placed at 3450 -do u think that mere getting past the 38.2% fib levels - we are a bull trend.Are we not forming a sharp rising wedge- isn't it gives some scare?

4820 is the target of the channel breakout. Channel breakout targets are measured by the height of the channel. The target may not be achieved immediately. It may be a few months too. I keep reminding about the bear market as it is important for risk management-- the way we place stops, amount of capital commited etc. I said we have got past 38.2% fib levels so the trend is more bullish than bearish. By this I do not mean we are in a bull market. The immediate trend is bullish till we have reasons to get bearish. The rise is sharp but I do not see a rising wedge.

I would really be happy and thankful if such questions are posted on the discussion forum. More techies can interact . Also, I have not been authenticating few requests of registration to the forum as there is a lot of spam. Please register with usernames that have some link to your name so that I can differentiate . Else send me a mail giving your username. The link is available on my website http://www.vipreetsafetrading.com

More with my analysis tomorrow

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--Week Starting 6th April,2009

Nifty Weekly Chart

Target 4820 !!



Fibonacci Resistance Levels

Nifty Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Forcibly closed my positions on 1st April for the freak out holiday I took and see what I lost out on! Anyway, no regrets , as I had a good holiday and closed my positions with profits. Also satisfied that my advice for thursday, 2nd April, was right and so did not mislead my followers.

I wrote,

"So we have more points for a bullish case ! All that the Nifty needs to do is cross 3123 and the downtrendline which is at 3086 for tomorrow on the Daily charts.
Tomorrow is the last day of the week and the level of the January 2008 downtrendline on weekly charts is at 3070. The triangle upper trendline level for the week is at 3010. So watch these levels for taking a call for next week".

Well, we got more than what we asked for. The score was fascinating ! Now let us analyse point wise.

Bullish Case:

• The January 2008 downtrendline has been successfully scaled even on the weekly charts. Breakout on daily charts with a huge white candle
  
• Volumes were higher on the breakout
• Weekly oscillators are strong. No bearish divergecnces spotted on charts
  
• 38.2% level of fall from 4650 scaled

Bearish Case

• Steep rise from 2539 which is now exactly a month old
• Hmmmmmmmm, nothing else. Ok , yes , we are in a bear market, yet.

We are more bullish than bearish. So no short positions till we get a proof of correction/resumption of downtrend. The channel breakout target shown on the 30 minute Line chart is 4820 and last major high at 4650. Looks like we will finally make it to those levels. Meanwhile , look for bearish divergences and corrections to reenter Longs.

Stop Loss would be the 2965 level which is the last low made and is the 38.2 % retracement level of entire rise.

Weekly level for the breakout failing is at 3035.

Rest is all marked out on the charts. Am too tired to write it out and spoon feed my readers.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty--2nd April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Not much change in the analysis since yesterday. The Nifty teasing has not ended yet, though the trend was a gradual "up" most of the day. At such crossroads, I think it is easier to divide the analysis into bullish case and bearish case, as I did yesterday


Bullish case

• As mentioned nifty broke out of the bullish consolidating flag and one could have gone long as advised . For such longs the stop loss would be at 2960 which has now become a strong base since 26th March , last Thursday.
• The Nifty has once again scaled above the upper trendline of the triangle.
• The Nifty is trading above the 20 and 40 dema's since the beginning of last week.
• The 40 dema too has crossed above the 84 sma for the first time since it crossed bearishly in January 2008.
  
• All the mentioned moving averages are moving up.
• The January 2008 downtrendline is scaled on the 30 minute chart.
• No bearish divergences spotted.
• Day's close was towards the high of the day.
• Though the rise was sharp, correction is stemmed at the 23.6 % retracement level.

Bearish case

• The recent top of 3123 not yet scaled.
• The January 2008 downtrendline on the Daily candle charts not scaled as yet.
• No bearish divergences spotted.
  

So we have more points for a bullish case ! All that the Nifty needs to do is cross 3123 and the downtrendline which is at 3086 for tomorrow on the Daily charts.

Tomorrow is the last day of the week and the level of the January 2008 downtrendline on weekly charts is at 3070. The triangle upper trendline level for the week is at 3010. So watch these levels for taking a call for next week .

Will be away for a few days, but will try my best to post a weekly analysis.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran

www.vipreetsafetrading.com