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Om  Sri  Ganeshaya  Namaha
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Friday, November 30, 2012

S&P500 30th November 2012



Daily Chart





Good followup action indicating the upmove may continue. The 20 ema is still below the 50 ema showing the scene is yet to turn completely bullish. 

Next targets are 1420-1424-1435.Support is at 1410-1400-1385.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Reigning The Nifty 29th November 2012



Daily Chart



Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart




Nifty gapped above the earlier Island gap and surpassed the 76.8% retracement at 5722 very easily on good volumes.The inveretd head and shoulder pattern shown on half hourly charts has a target of around 5750 which coincides with the downtrendline level drawn from 5815 through 5777 at 5755.This should be the next resistance to be watched. Breakout will indicate that the uptrend could be resuming.The final confirmation will come once the Nifty closes above 5815 on good volumes.

The bullish candle on 27th on high volumes is encouraging an upward breakout.

First sign of weakness will be a close below 5593.



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Reigning The Bank Nifty 29th November 2012



Daily Chart
Half Hourly Chart
With the breakout on good volumes  from the 11528 resistance shown yesterday, direction for the Bank Nifty is getting clearer.The red triangle needs to be resolved before one can say the direction is Up once again.The bullish candle on high volumes is encouraging an upward breakout.
Gap made today at 11432-11502 will act as support.Till this support holds the Bank Nifty will break on the upside.A breakout will give a move of around 600 points.In case retreats, break of 11392 will be first sign of weakness.
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S&P500 29th November 2012



Daily Chart




 Stunning recovery after opening down and correcting 38.2% of the recent rise.This is really bullish.Chances of moving above 1424 - 1435 is high.


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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

S&P500 28th November 2012



Daily Chart



Bearishness of the hanging man was confirmed with a bearish candle indicating fall may continue.  Support from the 50 ema at 1397 and 200 ema at 1376. 1376 is also the 50 % retracement level of the rise from 1343 to 1409.

Fibonacci supporta are at 1393-1383-1376-1368-1358.


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Reigning The Nifty 27th November 2012




Daily Chart



 Daily Chart


Half Hourly Chart



Nifty continued to be under pressure. The gap area was missed by a point as Nifty made a high of 5649 today.This validates that the gap area of 5650-5660 is strong resistance.The 20 ema too is in this area at 5645.Till these levels are overcome a sustained upmove  will be difficult. 
The uptrendline from June lows is at 5593 and the lasat swing low too is at 5593 making it a strong support . 50 ema is at 5605.Till these supports are held the downmove will not gain momentum.
Levels to watch for further direction are 5650-5660 on the upside and 5605-5593 on the downside.



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Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th November 2012



Daily Chart




Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart




The rising wedge break down continues to take the Bank Nifty down.The minor lower low at 11571 needs to be crossed to show some recovery. The fall is more sideways showing bulls not giving up easily.As told in the weekly newsletter till the range if 11745-11125 is cleared direction will be difficult to ascertain though the bias is down.The half hourly chart below will give an idea of how difficult trade can be in a range.



Half Hourly Chart



Triangle on daily charts need to be followed closely to see which way the breakout occurs to get a sense of direction.Resistance is at 11528 and support at 11324.Breakout from these levels will tell us more.50 day ema at 11259 and low made on 19th November at 11256 are strong supports.


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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

S&P500 27th November 2012



Daily Chart 




Yesterday I wrote  "The retracement has been exactly 50% of the fall from 1475 to 1343.This level normally leads to some pullback". The pullback did occur forming a hanging man which is a bearish reversal pattern.Trade and close above the highs of the candle is necessary to invalidate the bearishness.



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Monday, November 26, 2012

S&P500 26th November 2012


 Weekly Chart



 
Daily Chart 





The S&P500 has made a remarkable pullback having closed above the uptrendline from 1074 lows.It also closed above the downtrendline joining lower peaks made during the fall.The retracement has been exactly 50% of the fall from 1475 to 1343.This level normally leads to some pullback.Supports come at 1394-1384-1376-1368.

If continues up  resistances are at  61.8% is at 1424 and minor peak at 1435. 


 


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Friday, November 23, 2012

S&P500 23rd November 2012



Daily Chart 





 S&P500 is testing stiff resistance at the 1496 to 1404 levels.20 Ema at 1394, resistance from the uptrendline drawn from 1074 at 1404,  previous support level of 1396 and the downtrendline for this fall at 1398.Bulls need to conquer this to get the upmove started again.

 



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Reigning The Nifty 23rd November 2012



Daily Chart
Half Hourly Chart
Nifty has formed a bearish rising wedge - as is visible on half hourly charts - which is a continuation pattern indicating the fall may continue.
A doji was formed on daily charts showing losing momentum on the upside which started from 5548 lows.20 ema shown in green on daily charts proved resistance.The retracement was around the  38.2 % of the fall from 5777 to 5348.If this level  is not regained and the Nifty falls then shows bearishness.Resistance therefore is at the 5643-5650-5660 where the 38.2% fibo level, 20 ema and earlier gap exists.Till this is crossed and closed above it decisively the Nifty will be under bear pressure.
The rising wedge was broken down in the last half hour indicating more fall to come.Redrawing the support line the Nifty needs to stay above 5647 for the day to avoid breaking below the redrawn line.If fails then Nifty could go down by a 100 points.
Strong support is at 5578 at the uptrendline from June which remains unviolated. 50 ema is at 5602. Fibonacci supports for the rise from 5548 to 5643 are marked on half hourly charts.
 A weekly close above 5602 is required to stay above the uptrendline from June lows on weekly charts.
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Disclaimer
All the calls made in this section are based on my judgment and the information available at the particular point of time. Adequate precaution has been taken while writing the analysis. However, no responsibility is taken for the losses or gains made through the analysis, either legally or otherwise. Readers are advised that acting on the analysis is at their own risk. Stock Market trading involves risk and is a high risk & high return business and I do not accept any financial and/or legal responsibility arising from the use of the information

Reigning The Bank Nifty 23rd November 2012


Daily Chart
 
 
Half Hourly Chart
 
Bank Nifty opened with a gap up today and rallied a few points up but could not sustain at the highs making a long upper shadow. The candle made is a shooting star which has bearish implications.The Bank Nifty continues to be in weak territory as it is trading below the uptrendline from September lows.The rise from the recent low at 11256 has formed a rising wedge which is a bearish continuation pattern.The last half hour candle has broken down from the pattern and is expected to move further down.
A lot of pointers towards a fall.
Gap support - gap made today -  is at 11495-11465.  Fibonacci supports are marked on the half hourly chart.The rising wedge has a target of 11230.A fall below the above mentioned gap should be the first sign of weakness.
Till the low of 11125 holds the Bank Nifty will make attempts to recover.A fall and close below this level will see some accelerated fall.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Disclaimer
All the calls made in this section are based on my judgment and the information available at the particular point of time. Adequate precaution has been taken while writing the analysis. However, no responsibility is taken for the losses or gains made through the analysis, either legally or otherwise. Readers are advised that acting on the analysis is at their own risk. Stock Market trading involves risk and is a high risk & high return business and I do not accept any financial and/or legal responsibility arising from the use of the information

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

S&P500 21st November 2012



Daily Chart




 Pause in the very short term uptrend or a reveral of the pullback? Difficult to say. What we need to keep in mind is the S&P is approaching strong resistance area at the 1396-1403 area which would be a good area to come out of losing longs or maybe take fresh shorts.



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S&P500 20th November 2012



Daily Chart



 Bounced back above the 200 ema which has proved bullish in the last correction as can be seen on the chart.The correction is smaller than the April -May 2012 correction by 24 points.This is a positive too.

 1394-1401 should be a strong resistance to crack.




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Reigning The Nifty 19th November 2012



Weekly Chart



Daily Chart



Half Hourly Chart




 Nifty has finally broken down decisively from the range and the low made at 5583.An island reversal was made which was already pointed out in the Newsletter.The bearish head and shoulder target of 5560 was achieved.Bias is bearish due to the Island Reversal and with the neckline of the Inverted Cup and Handle neckline being broken.

Nifty is now close to crucial support at 5549 on the uptrendline from June 2012.This may lead to a pullback and retest of the neckline of the cup and handle pattern at 5583. This should ideally be sold into.The pattern has been shown in the chart below with targets.Targets on half hourly charts are slightly different as the neckline has been drawn slanting upwards.These are just reference points.

The Island Reversal resistance at 5650 will be the level for trend change from bearish to bullish.
 


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Reigning The Bank Nifty 19th November 2012


Weekly Chart



Daily Chart



Half Hourly Chart



Last week I had pointed out that the candles of the past few weeks  had clearly indicated bearishness. The bulls made way for the bears and the Bank Nifty broke down from the rising wedge and a bearish head and shoulder pattern to give lower targets of 10900 and 11149 respectively.The larger rising wedge on daily charts too was broken today and gives a larger downside target of 9580.


Fibonacci Retracement Chart



Keeping targets in mind we need to be aware of strong support areas which may prevent the Bank Nifty from achieving those targets. 11125 is the key support area which will be the decider of the continuation of the uptrend.If this fails the gap support at 10797-10642 will come into focus.This gap has been held for exactly two months.This area, 10805 to 10642, as shown on chart above is a strong support area. Breaking below this area will therefore be a very bearish indication.
Minor supports marked on daily and half hourly charts.


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Monday, November 19, 2012

S&P500 19th November 2012



Weekly Chart 




Daily Chart





 Weekly shows a decisive break from the rising wedge which shows more bearishness to come.
Daily charts show an Outside Day pattern which could be a sign of a short term reversal.A pullback is due too after the sharp fall. Immediate resistances would be 1365, pointed out on the chart and 1375 which is the 200 day ema.



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Reigning The Nifty 16th November 2012


Daily Chart


Half Hourly Chart
The Nifty made an Island Reversal pattern.This pattern occurs when prices gap up when in a strong uptrend - like the one we had from June lows- and then gaps down again on the way down.This leaves certain candles in an "island" as can be seen on the daily chart above the two elipse.This is a strong reversal signal and the signal is stronger if the  island  is formed by several bars rather than one which is the case with Nifty.Till recovery signals are seen the Nifty will therefore remain bearish.
The half hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern with neckline breached giving a target of 5560.This is close to the low of 5583 and the support line drawn through lows made since the top of 5814.5567 is the 23.6% retracement of the rise from 4770 to 5814.This should prove a strong support.If breaks then the Nifty would have made a lower high and lower low sequence turning the trend down.

Supports are at 5603-5583-5540. Resistance is at gap of 5650-5668,  5698-5710
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 16th November 2012



Daily Chart
Half Hourly Chart
Bank Nifty broke down from the rising wedge as per it's characteristic.Support taken around the 11422 level which is the 50% retracement level of the rise from 11125 to 11745 high as can be clearly seen on the half hourly chart.The pullback  was nearly closed the gap down made on open. The pullback though seems to be a retest of the support line from which it broke down having failed to close above it.
If the support  at 11452-11481 is held then the pullback will continue.Else the fall may continue to test the gap area at 11394-11315 where the 61.8% level too resides at 11352.If this strong support area breaks then the 11125 low will come into focus.
Resistance is at 11565-11608-11719
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Saturday, November 17, 2012

S&P500 16th November 2012



Daily Chart 




 A spinning top was formed on daily charts. Spinning tops are candles  having a small body with upper and lower shadows longer than the length of the body. Spinning tops signal indecision.Having reached the 61.8% retracement level such an indecision could indicate a bounce which would be a good oppurtunity to sell into.


 
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Friday, November 16, 2012

Reigning The Nifty 15th November 2012

 
 
Half Hourly Chart
Nifty still meanders in the 5815-5583 range. A rising wedge has been pointed out in black on daily chart II.The support line is shared with the uptrendline from 5217 lows.The daily made a doji candle on Monday, which took support on this trendline.This makes this trendline important level to be held, which has been broken in the Diwali Mahurat session yesterday.The breakout should have a target of 5480.
The half hourly charts show efforts to stabilise at the 5666 level after encroaching into the gap area partially.If this support at the gap area 5666-5645 fails retest of the 5583 is on the cards.
Supports are at 5666-5645-5615  Resistance at 5680-5710-5752.
 
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 15th November 2012



Half Hourly Chart



Rising wedge seen forming on daily charts which is a bearish formation.It shows that the trading range is getting narrower which will finally lead to a  break down.The rising wedge occuring at highs is a bearish reversal pattern.
The half hourly chart shows another rising wedge depicted well in red.This gives support to the bearish bias of the daily charts.Also increases possibility of the trading range which we have been experiencing since six weeks  resolving on the bearish side.If the upmove from 11427 continues then we could expect a higher high than 11719 which will be the third touch point of the rising wedge.Level for tomorrow at the resistance line is at 11748.Support line is at 11545.


Taking a narrower look at the chart an "Inside Day" pattern occured once again on daily charts ! The Mahurat session too stayed within that range. This shows indecision and we once again watch whether the high of the Inside Day  at 11664 breaks first taking the Bank Nifty higher or lower if the low at 11427 breaks.
If the low breaks it will be a break out from the smaller &  larger rising wedge as well as the uptrendline from 9814  and the Bank Nifty could make a move down of 600 points.

With the weekly charts starting to show bearish candlesticks and the daily charts throwing up bearish patterns one needs to get fairly cautious on longs. 


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Thursday, November 15, 2012

S&P500 15th November 2012



Daily Chart 




 Supports not holding indicating more selling can be anticipated.The fall in April 2012 to June 2012 was of 155 points which translates to 1420 for this fall.This level coincides with the 38.2% fibonacci level retracement for the  1074 to 1475 rise. A fall below this could mean a deeper correction and possible reversal of trend.


 
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

S&P500 14th November 2012



Daily Chart 




The Inside Day indecision resolved to the downside but only intraday.The close managed to keep the indecision going with a close above the low of 1373.The low made was at 1371 which is the 50% fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 1267 to 1475.The down trendling channel too has been good support.
200 day ema was however broken and the close was below it.

If the above mentioned supports are held and the S&P moves above the 200 ema a good bounce may ensue.



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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

S&P500 13th November 2012



Daily Chart





An Inside Day pattern shows a probable reversal.Break out of the high @ 1391 or low @ 1373 should set the trend on the side of breakout.




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Reigning The Nifty 12th November 2012



Weekly Chart

Daily Chart


Half Hourly Chart




Nifty has been in a sideways move since the last seven weeks.This week saw the Nifty making a shooting star which is a bearish pattern.The 5740-5760  resistance has been difficult to maintain and the Nifty broke down to gap support at 5678-5645 as shown on half hourly charts.This is also the 50% fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 5583 low to 5777 and where the 20 day ema is housed.This level also has the support at the uptrendline from 5218 at 5659-5668.This therefore is a strong support.A break of this support will see a test of the 5583 low.

Resistance is marked on half hourly charts.
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 12th November 2012



Weekly Chart



Daily Chart




Half Hourly Chart





Bank Nifty failed to cross above the 11745 high and gave in to bear pressure.Weekly candles for the past six weeks have been small bodied most having long upper shadows showing selling pressure barring last weeks candle which had a long lower shadow showing buying pressure which could well be a bearish hanging man.Two "shooting stars" and one "hanging man" at the 11745 resistance make a case for the scene heading towards bearishness.

Daily Charts show a false breakout from the flag formation.The Inside Day pattern mentioned yesterday resolved to the down breakout.The breakout was decisive too.The bias is definitely towards bearishness.

Support seems to have been taken at the 50%  fibo level as can be seen on the half hourly chart.Strong support is now available at the gap area 11394 to 11315 and the uptrendline at 11399.Fibonacci support comes at 11422-11352.  A break of these levels could put the low at 11125 in danger and spell trouble for the bulls.


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