Reigning the Nifty 29th April,2011

 Daily Chart

Bearish candle taking support on the green trendline .Support on this trendline is at 5780.The 5 and 10 dema cross has given a sell.Close was below the 20 dema.The 50 dema has support at 5706 and 200 dema at 5630.

Half Hourly Chart

Support taken exactly at the 61.8% level of rise from 5693 to 5913.The breakdown from the pink triangle gives a target of around 5600. The inverse head and shoulders could still be forming. Supports and Resistances marked on the charts.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 29th April,2011

Daily Chart

Bearish followup continuing to form the leg down to the support line of the Megaphone pattern.Support at 11395.

Another view

Trade below 11681 could see 11200. Support on megaphone pattern at 11438.Resistance comes at 12010.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --28th April 2011

Daily Chart

Spotted the Inverse head and shoulder pattern the S&P500 made giving a target of  1427. This coincides with the 261.8% retracement level of  fall from 1339-1294 , at 1410 , which would be targetted once 1362 is scaled.
 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty 28th April,2011

Daily Chart

A bearish engulfing pattern adding to the bearishness shown by the previous three candles. The red down trendline from 6338 has now been hammered continuously from the beginning of this month without success.The megaphone pattern in which Nifty is moving  indicate the break of this range  5693-5944 is biased for a down breakout showing clearly the lower tops and lower bottoms.

Half Hourly Chart

A triangle shown in pink which is on the brink of breaking out on the downside. On the other hand ,the latest action shows a symmetrical triangle forming shown in green. The fourth leg seems to be forming and if takes support on the lower trendline then in all possibilities the fifth leg will lead to an upward breakout. Both are symmetrical triangles which shows indecision. The inverse head and shoulders mentioned yesterday is still valid.All these patterns encompassed in an expanding triangle which i have discussed before.

Truly unpredictable at the moment. Trade light.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 28th April,2011

Daily Chart

Bearishness ruled as indicated by the hanging man. The Bank Nifty formed  a bearish engulfing pattern  which is a bearish pattern too. However, a higher high and higher low was formed.Negative divergences continue on the daily charts.The range established since the beginning of this month needs to break for any trend to emerge.

Supports and resistances marked on the chart.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --27th April 2011

Daily Chart

The hanging man proved to be a hammer establishing good support at 1331.47.Break of the rally high on good volumes makes the target of 1362 achievable.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 27th April 2011

 Daily Chart

A hanging man after a shooting star and doji. All at trendline resistance which makes it more significant. The three candlesticks portend trend exhaustion.The long lower shadow of today's candle makes it all the more bearish as sellers were able to push prices so low.

 Half Hourly Chart

Half hourly charts show support taken around the 5803 levels.The recovery was sharp but stalled exactly at resistance line of the megaphone pattern. Viewing it in a different way, we  have an  inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the 5913-5923 levels.If the support of 5803 holds then a breakout from the neckline could give a move of  around 200 points. It would be prudent to wait for a break of 5944 which is the high of this rally.

Resistance at 5893-5913-5923-5944  and Support at 5854-5842-5830

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 27th April,2011

 Daily Chart

Price moved down as anticipated yesterday forming a hanging man. This portends trend exhaustion. The hanging man is a bearish candlestick showing that sellers are active and could push down prices during the day. . The longer the lower shadow the more potent the pattern. The megaphone pattern seems to be playing out it's bearishness.Negatvie divergences on all daily oscillators support this bearishness.

Supports and resistances marked on the chart.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --26th April 2011

Daily Chart

A hanging man suggesting a short term top may have been made . Only a trade above the high of 1344 will give momentum to the upmove. Supports are at  1331-1319-1303. Resistance at 1337-39-44-62.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 26th April 2011

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The daily candle is a shooting star making a lower high and lower low.This after a doji indicates bears are getting the upper hand slowly but surely.The gap made on the last trading session too was filled which is bearish. The half hourly chart shows another megaphone formed in the last two days action shown in blue.The range is now reduced to 5913-5693. Till a breakout on one side occurs trading will be difficult.

Resisatnce at 5913-5923-5944 and support at  5860-5830-5803.   5803 stop loss for longs.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 26th April,2011

Daily Chart

The megaphone pattern got another hit on the upside forming the required third peak at 11978,today's high. The Megaphone Top usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. Though the higher tops give a feeling that the uptrend is still on, it is important to read the pattern carefully and see that the bears too are active forcing the price to make lower lows.The signal that the pattern is complete occurs when prices fall below the support line.When you see a broadening top,prices will eventually drop.The pattern would fail when the highest high of the pattern is taken out decisively.The shooting star formed today at the resistance line indicates a down leg to the support line of the megaphone.

The inverted head and shoulder remains in contention .

The gap at 11836-11813 will give support.  Other important as marked on the chart are 11482-11429-11405.

Tighten stops on longs. 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --25th April 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Weekly charts are forming a pennant which is a continuation pattern. So more chances of an upward breakout. Also a bullish engulfing pattern was formed. With two gap up candles on the daily and a closing high since the correction from 1344 which started in mid February, I would conclude that the bullish engulfing pattern indicates more bullishness to come.Daily macd has signalled a buy and the Rsi14 and stochastics show strength above the 50 line.

Trade long  with a stop at 1294.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 25th April 2011

Weekly Chart

The downtrendline from 6339 proved stiff resistance once again with the Nifty brushing against it briefly once again.The weekly oscillators are showing strength with the Macd giving a buy and moving above the zero line and the Rsi 14 is making higher highs and lows above the 50 line. The stochastics however has moved into overbought region above the 80 mark and turned down giving a sell with it's signal line. This alerts that  there is losing momentum and one should be aware for any price reversal. A higher low and higher high candle would be required to change the negative bias of the last two weeks.

Daily Chart

A doji after a strong attempt to break on the upside from the megaphone pattern.Oscillators are above their mid line showing the move is regaining strength.A higher low of 5693 has been made and will be confirmed if the top of 5944 is taken out. Till then trade will be tricky.The newly drawn upward sloping channel  suggests more upside till it's support line holds around 5760.

Half hourly Chart

The forming of a pennant indicates the upmove may continue.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 25th April 2011

 Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

The Bank Nifty is moving up in a channel . The present yo-yo from the beginning of this month has been in the shape of a megaphone which could also  be the forming of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline shown in red. Due to the megaphone shape the point of breakout seems to be going up slightly everytime the resistance line resists.Breakout points are marked on the charts.

Amongst the trend folowing indicators, EMAs  are all bullishly aligned on the weekly as well as the daily charts.On weekly charts the Macd is in buy and has moved above the zero line. The higher high higher low is intact till 11482 is broken. The Rsi14 and stochastics are showing strength above the 50 level.This indicates an uptrend is in place.

On daily charts though, oscillators showing falling momentum and a negative divergence.The Macd is in sell but above the zero line and has turned up  to give a buy.The stochastics and Rsi14 have started moving up regaining strength above the 50 line.  This indicates the sideways  correction  since the beginning of this month may be getting over.On Line charts the neckline of the  inverse head and shoulders has been broken out.

Supports are at  11520-482-337. Resistance at  11950-12000-12200.

Longs can be initiated with proper risk management in place as per one's risk profile.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --21st April 2011

 Daily Chart

Uncanny how the Inside Day pattern works in the case of the S&P500 ! As pointed out  yesterday , the pattern  led to a huge bullish candle on good volumes with a gap up.The 61.8% level of the fall from 1339 was scaled easily. Resistances now at 1339-1344-1362.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 21st April 2011

 Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty chose the freak upside breaking all resistances to close above the 61.8% fibo level of fall from 5944-5693. The double top breakout proved false.The move got the 5 and 10 dema to cross over bullishly once again. Strong resistances on the way up at 5885-5923-5944.The wild up down movements in the megaphone pattern should resolve soon. Supports at 5803-5759-5693.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 21st April 2011

Daily Chart

A gap up opening with the day's candle closing above the 61.8% fibo level of the fall till 11482. A higher high and higher low turns the bias up. The megaphone pattern support is at 11450 and resisatnce at 11983.  The toss between the bearish megaphone win or the inveretd head and shoulder  remains unresolved.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --20th April 2011

Daily Chart

An Inside day indicating a bottom may have been made at 1294, as has been proved on several occasions when the pattern has appeared. The channel resisatnce is at 1314. The lower high of 1322 needs to be crossed to change the negative bias.A downtrend  and double top will be confirmed if 1249 is broken.

Meanwhile, trade light. 




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 20th April 2011

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Selling stalled after some  initial morning weakness forming a pennant. This is a continuation pattern and the tiff between bulls and bears should resolve on the downside.The move should achieve the target of 5547 which would .The 5 dema has given a bearish cross with the 10dema which is a good indication of short term weakness. In case of  a freak upside breakout occurs then  will  find resistance at  5780-5808-5834-5848.

Only a sustained trade above 5848 can bring back the upward momentum.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 20th April 2011

Daily Chart

Lower low and lower high continued for the second day making a tiny dent in the low of 11490 intraday.The megaphone pattern support is at 11462.The short term averages 5 and 10 dema have not signalled a sell yet. Rsi 14 has turned up  above the 50 level. Will the bearish megaphone win or the inveretd head and shoulder?


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --19th April 2011

Daily Chart

A lower high at 1322 in place with a lower low at 1294 being registered yesterday.Bias is down and  a downtrend will be confirmed and double top will be confirmed if 1249 is broken. Meanwhile, trade light.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 19th April 2011

Daily Chart

The bearishness of the expanding triangles played out. The 5944-5735 range broke down.The morning efforts to rally resisited once again the the red downtrendline.This was almost the 10th attempt to cross it making it a significant resistance to cross for bullishness. Till then bias would remain down.

Supports are at 5660 -- megaphone pattern support line, 5665 -- 50 dema and 5616 -- 200dema.

Half Hourly Chart 

The half houirly chart shows a double top confirmation giving a target of 5547.Supports marked on the chart.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 19th April 2011

Daily Chart

The yo yo in the 460 point range continued. The huge bullish candle of 13th was almost entirely retraced.As mentioned in my earlier post the right shoulder of the potential inverse head and shoulder pattern with the red neckline around 11912 could be forming.

Range break on the downside could give a move of around 460 points which could find support at the 200 dema.If breaks on the upside then it would also be a break from the neckline of the potential inverse head and shoulder pattern with a move of around 2000 points!

Till the range breaks trade light.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --18th April 2011

 Weekly Chart

Weekly charts show a downward bias with a lower high and lower low candle. Double top at 1339  gets confirmed only if the low 1249 is violated. Till then trade the range of 1344-1249.

 Daily Chart

Daily charts show recovery efforts on with a retracement of more than 50% of fall from 1349 to 1302.  If fails to trade above 1325 expect a test of 1302 .Till the lows of 1302 is held efforts to cross targets of 1349-1344 -1362  will be on.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 18th April 2011

Weekly Chart

The red downtrendline proves to be strong resistance till now.The candle formed was a high wave candle.The high wave candle has a very small real body, and it portrays a stock or index plagued by uncertainty.  The long shadows  reveal volatility.High wave candles portray situations where the market is having difficulty coming to a consensus on a security's value. They are indicative of a market in which uncertainty and indecision prevail. Neither the buyers nor the sellers have a clear sense of which direction the market will head. The forces of supply and demand are equally balanced.The lower low and lower high made however show a downward bias.The broadening falling wedge shown in weekly chart II is a bearish pattern. This formation acts as a consolidation of the trend. If prices are moving down, prices usually continue down after a downside breakout. Till 5300 holds bulls will find favour.

Weekly Chart II

Daily Chart

Daily charts show an Inside Day with high at 5923 and low at 5735. Volumes on both the days forming the pattern were nearly equal implying selling pressure on Friday was not too heavy. The move from the recent high from 5944 also seems to be forming the megaphone pattern which is bearish.

As shown on weekly chart II , trading above 5300 will see bulls more active.For the immediate short term 5944-5735 range breakout will show the direction.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty -18th April 2011

 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

The weekly candle formed an Outside Day.This could prove bearish having occured after four weeks of rally.Last week had formed an Inside Day which was broken on the upside intra week. This Inside-Outside formation shows confusion which is shown vividly on the daily charts in the form of an expanding triangle or megaphone pattern, shown in green.This is bearish.The weekly is also seen forming a bear flag  which should normally break down and resume the downtrend.

On the other hand the daily charts show a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern being formed. Neckline was breached intraday yesterday. A break from the neckline could give a move of 1900 points.

The trend is up with all demas and wemas bullishly aligned.On the other hand the Bank Nifty is struggling to overcome the 61.8% retracement of the fall from all time highs and the daily oscillators and OBV are showing a negative divergence.  Resolving the megaphone yo-yo will give a sense of further direction.Trade light till then.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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The Gold Rush - Is It Time To Rush Out?

 Monthly Chart

 Monthly Oscillator Chart

Gold has been on a bull run and doubled since it's bottom in October 2008. The rise continues despite the continuous negative divergence in the oscillators. Gold as we know does not by itself appreciate in value.The rise in value of gold is relative to other factors. As of now the rise is due to a weak USD, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery, inflation pressures and rises in oil prices.Till this scenario does not ease, gold will be in demand.

Technically, 1307, the last swing low on monthly charts, should be a good support and stop loss for longs.A buy on dips strategy will pay off well over the next three to five years.Just the reason why I have analysed only the monthly charts.

More insight about the fundamentals of Gold can be read in the post by Nishit Wadhavkar here http://money-manthan.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold-whats-driving-it-fundamental-and.html .   Nishit is a long term Gold Bull  and  his faith in Gold remains unmoved in every correction and he has got it rite so far with a 56% return on his gold investments.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --15th April 2011

Daily Chart

A potential double top with the confirmation on the break of 1249. Supports at 1302-1294-1284.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 15th April 2011

 Weekly Chart

Putting up the weekly chart as just a day's trading left for the weekly close. A close above 5915 will be a breakout from the down trending line. The weekly candle also seems to be forming a bullish engulfing candle unless there is a good sell off tomorrow.

 Daily Chart

The huge bullish candle from green trendline support encourages the view that the weekly charts may see the breakout from the down trendline. Volumes on the correction from 5944 to 5735 was very low which indicates low selling pressure.On the other hand volumes on the bullish candle of 13th was much higher, which is bullish. The correction  from 5944 to 5735 which took 4 days was retraced 90% in just a day's session. All pointers have a  bullish bias.

A higher high seems to be in place. Place stops at 5735 and trade long.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 15th April 2011

 Daily Chart

The range of 11898-11540 was violated on the downside but bears could not take advantage of it. On the other hand the bulls took advantge of the correction to post a huge bullish candle erasing almost the entire loss. The resistance of 11898 -11912 needs to be crossed to  break the neckline of the bullish head and shoulder shown below. The move could be a whopping 1900 points!!!!



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Force of Habit

Couldn't stop myself posting this

Weekly Nifty Chart

Doji with a long upper shadow at strong trendline resistance. This could mean a reversal as it has the charateristics of a shooting star.

Time to leave see you'll on Friday .



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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