S&P 500 update --31st March 2011

 Daily Chart

 The bullish engulfing patterns which i had pointed out in my post  of 18th March 2011  which you may read here,http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-500-update-18th-march-2011.html. The signal has been proved right once again. 

Now resistance is at 1332-1344. Support at 1319-1305.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 31st March 2011

 Daily Chart

A gap up open keeping with the bullishness of this rally. The 61.8% retracement of fall from 6181 to 5177 was retraced successfully and some profit booking prevented a close above it.

Half Hourly Chart

As can be seen on the chart above resistances of 5800-5840-5874 if taken out the reaching the target of 6000 will be a cake walk.

Half Hourly Chart II

A rising wedge may be forming as shown on chart II . Resistance is at 5824-5829 which will have to be taken out to negate the bearishness of the wedge. Support at 5721-5731  and 5673-5712 as marked on the chart. 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 31st March 2011

Daily Chart

Bulls in control and marching to conquer the target of 12560. Supports at 11625-11507-11380.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --30th March 2011

Daily Chart

A bullish engulfing candle but making a new low which makes one skeptical about a followup.The 1319 -1320 level is resistance since the last three trading sessions. This makes it important to be crossed for  further upmoves.Support at 1305 on the green trendline which could be the short term trend decider.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 30th March 2011

 Daily Chart

Resistance from the green trendline was taken out very easily with a close above it. Volumes were good and breadth negative. Nifty shares breadth however was positive with a 3:1. This shows more activity in frontline shares only. The broader market needs to start participating to sustain the uptrend.

Half Hourly Chart

Negative divergences and overbought conditions have led to a reaction from the strong resistance of 5770. Supports are at 5720-5670-5609.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 30th March 2011

 Daily Chart

The uptrend continues . Breadth was just 2:1 and volumes average. 

Resistances at 116876-11912-12067.Supports at 11507-11348-11268.

Daily Chart II

The bank Nifty could be moving in an upward moving channel. So long as the support line remains unviolated the upmove could continue. The correction having arrested above the 38.2% fibo level adds strength to the view. Support on the channel now at 10490.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --29th March 2011

Daily Chart

Lacklustre trading on extremely low volumes forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This may bring in some more selling. Supports at 1305-1295.






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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 29th March 2011

Daily Chart

Bullish follow up resisting at the green trendline which now offers resistance at 5715.A lot of resistances on the way to achieving the target of 6000 shown in yesterday's post.oscillators are supporting the upmove.Breadth and volumes need to improve for a stronger uptrend.

Hourly Chart

The upmove has been sharp and needs to consolidate. Supports and Resistances marked on charts.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty - 29th March 2011

 Daily Chart

Good follow up buying to the breakout.Oscillators too showing strength.All daily emas --5,10,20,50 & 200 are now bullishly aligned. Both breadth and volumes were good.

Resisitance at 11676-11912.  Support at  11378-11223.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --28th March 2011

Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

Close above the 61.8% retracement level of the fall till 1249 breaking out of the green downtrendline shown on daily charts.This is encouraging and 1333-1344 could be attempted. This downtrendline is yet to be broken on weekly charts with resistance at 1312 for the week.


Resistance at 1333 and support at 1305.
 


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Reigning The Nifty - 28th March 2011

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Bullish Indications

• A bullish breakout from the various patterns--ascending triangle,double bottom, falling wedge -- I have been discussing since a few weeks.
• The breakout was with two consecutive gaps and till these gaps remain unvisited bullishness will prevail.
• A higher high higher low has been maintained since the bottom of 5177 on daily charts.Till the previous low of 5348 breaks, Nifty can be considered to be in an uptrend.
• The daily chart also shows highest volumes on the candle at the 5177 lows.This may be capitulation which proves to be so till date.
• The fall from 6338 has held the 61.8% retracement level of the rise from 4675 lows on a closing basis.
• The Nifty has closed above the 50 and 200 dema and the 5,10 and 20 dema are all bullishly aligned.
• The daily oscillators are all showing strength.Stochastics and Rsi14 have moved above 50 level and Macd above zero in buy mode.
• The move from low of 5177 is a 5 legged triangle which has broken on the upside with a target of 6000 as shown on half hourly charts.

Bearish Indications

• Volumes  have not supported the breakout as shown in weekly chart II. 
• Weekly chart shows the green bear flag being formed once again. This typically forms in corrective moves.
• The red neckline on half hourly charts could be crossed only intraday. Resistance is now at 5660.

 Till the top of 6338 is crossed, all bullish signals should be followed but  with necesssary  risk management. 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 28th March 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

The Bank Nifty gapped up bullishly second day in a row and broke above the resistance of 11300  throwing up a target of 12560. Resistances marked on the charts.Risk Management should be given extra importance till the all time high of 13304 is taken out.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --25th March 2011

Daily Chart

Fell fractionally short of breaking out from the green down trendline which stands at 1308.80  for the day.The close was above the 61.8% retracement of the fall to 1249.Support and Resistance from the channel in which the S&P500 is moving at present is at 1298 and 1326 respectively.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 25th March 2011

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

A bullish follow up with a gap up opening scaling the down trending trendlines easily. 50dema at 5538.50 and 200 dema 5583.75 still remain resistances. Other resistances to be broken to succeed in confirming the double bottom are at 5535-5563-5608.  I would prefer to calculate pattern targets only when these resistances are taken out.

Supports on the short term uptrendline is at 5494-5533 for the day.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty 25th March 2011

 Daily Chart

The gap up opening  was a good follow up to yesterday's bullish candle.All the Bank Nifty shares closed in the positive.As can be seen on the chart bullish crossovers of  the emas are taking place rapidly. Macd is above the zero line and in buy mode. Rsi14 and stochastics have moved above the 50 level. Also the bank nifty is trading above all the emas.The 10827-10915 area has a cluster of 5,10,20,50 and 200 emas which should offer good support.

Resistances at 11135-11300-11350.   Supports at 11001-10958-10885




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S&P 500 update --24th March 2011

 Daily Chart

The upmove from 1249 is well chanelled  proving it's corrective nature. Such moves normally abort at the 50%  fibo retracement  level where it is hesitating since the last three days or  at the 61.8% fibo level which is at 1308. Any move above this would be bullish .

Support is at 1291.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 24th March 2011

Daily Chart

Today was a bullish follow up to yesterday's higher high higher low candle which had shown signs of stemming the selling. The candle though could not give a decisive breakout from the array of down trendlines, now providing resistance at 5481-5494-5503. The 50 dema is at 5539 and 200 dema at 5584. Breadth was marginally positive. The breadth amongst the Nifty shares was 6:1 which shows only the frontline shares are participating in the upmove.Breadth and volumes need to improve to give  support  to the upmove.

Half Hourly Chart

Bullishness prevailed from open till the close.A series of resistances to be broken to succeed in confirming the double bottom at 5510-5535-5563-5608.  Supports on the short term uptrendline is at 5445-5485 for the day.



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Reigning the Bank Nifty 24th March 2011

 Daily Chart

The sideways action gave rise to an upward breakout from the green triangle, though just marginally. Today's candle was hugely bullish especially having come after a doji which clearly indicates the verdict of yesterday's tussle  has gone in favour of the bulls.The 50 dema continues to be above the 200 dema and the 5,10 and 20 dema too are bullishly aligned with each other. Volumes were good and the close was above the 50 and 200 dema.

A bullish  follow up action tomorrow and a cross of the 11300 top would be required to get bullish . The advance decline ratio was just 2:1 .

 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --23rd March 2011

 Daily Chart

Stalling at 50% retracement level of the fall to 1249. To remain bullish trade above 1300 is necessary which is the support on the short term uptrendline and the high of Monday. 





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Reigning The Nifty - 23rd March 2011

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Stalemate within the 5608-5308 continues.A stabilising activity at the latest green downward moving channel, shown in half hourly charts, seems to be taking shape in a red upward trending channel. Supports on this channel are at 5365-5372 for tomorrrow. One can keep a stop at this trendline for any longs held. Resistance at 5465 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from 5535-5348. 

OR

Is this ominous sharp rising wedge going to give way?

Half Hourly Chart

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Reigning The Bank Nifty - 23rd March 2011

 Daily Chart

Sideways action continues.

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S&P 500 update --22nd March 2011

 Daily Chart

The Inside pattern got a good follow up today. Hurdles 1308 and 1313 must be crossed to keep up the momentum.


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Reigning The Nifty - 22nd March 2011

 Daily Chart

Support taken on the blue trendline. Holding supports at 5350-5318-5308  can bring in some buying. Break will  test earlier lows of 5177 .

 Half Hourly Chart

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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 22nd March 2011

Daily Chart

Taken support on the blue trendline. Volumes were extremely low and breadth 1:1. The sideways movement seems to be taking it's toll on the bulls and bears who seem to be whipsawed into pigs. A bullish flag seems to heve formed within the triangular movement with support at 10534.If takes support at this level then we can expect an upward breakout in the coming days.




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S&P 500 update --21st March 2011

Weekly Chart

Correction seems to be in full swing. Macd has gone into a sell mode and stochastics indicates further fall.

Daily Chart

The Inside day pattern broke on the upside as anticipated. The rally though met with selling at the highs ending with a long bearish upper shadow and a close within the Inside day's range.This indicates bulls exiting at highs. Oscillators too showing weakness.

Supports at 1174-1177.

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Reigning The Nifty - 21st March 2011

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

The "Inside" pattern shown last week on weekly charts, which has the upper end at 5608 and lower end at 5308, is intact with the trading remaining within the range.The bear flag shown is shown in green which is bearish and  an ascending triangle as shown in the second chart is bullish. Support line for both is the same.Resistance at 5621 and support at 5340.Ascending triangles indicate consolidation with an upward breakout. If supports 5340-5308  breaks then expect a rapid fall to 5100-4900.

 Daily Chart

Daily Charts give the same picture in a magnified form. The 5 day rise from 5232 to 5608  has been retraced just over 61.8% in 10 days. This raises hopes of a bottom having been made at 5232. The bearish engulfing pattern made on Friday 18th, could well be a bullish sign -- the last gasp sellers create a bearish engulfing pattern which usually is followed by increased buying. Watch activity at supports 5350-5320-5308  to see if buying support comes in. If the supports do not hold then the double top at 5608 which I have been showing on half hourly charts will come into play.

Half Hourly Chart

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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 21st March 2010

 Weekly Chart

Bank Nifty continues to move within the pennant formation pointed out last week. A Bearish Pennant  follows a  fall in price, and consists of two converging trendlines that resembles an equilateral triangle.The Pennant appears as a sideways move, rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend. It is a continuation pattern and almost always prices break in the dirction of the existing trend , which is a downtrend in the case of the bank Nifty. Oscillators are weak supporting the bearish view.Support has moved up to 10443.

Daily Chart

The daily charts show a bearish follow up to the shooting star candle of 17th March, in line with the pennant discussed above. Support taken on the blue short term up trendline.

Supports and Resistance marked on charts.



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HAPPY HOLI !!!!!!!

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 Lakshmi Ramachandran 

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S&P 500 update --18th March 2011

 

 Daily Chart

Yesterday's candle was an "Inside Day".

Inside days take place when the high is lower than the previous day's highs and lows are above the previous day's low, representing a period of consolidation and lower volatility.This pattern often occurs after the end of a price move, where prices have reached a point where buyers (in an uptrend) or sellers (in a downtrend) are already in and the price has moved too far to attract more buyers/sellers. Inside days may indicate a change of direction.

This has been often seen in the case of the S&P. The pattern has led to a stalling of the downmove and then a resumption of the upmove on past three occasions , shown in red elipse on the chart. Will the pattern prove bullish this time too?

Ideally, wait  for the break of the high or low of the Inside day pattern, which is 1280.91 and 1249.05 for the S&P, to set the further direction.


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Reigning the Nifty - 18th March 2011

 Daily Chart

Bearish candle with a gap down resisting  once again at the red trendline.The movemnet since the top on 4th March at 5608 is sideways with a slightly downward bias resulting in a downward trending channel.the 5 dema has bearishly crossed the 10 and 20 dema and the 50 and 200 dema continue to move downwards.

 Half Hourly Chart

Stalemate continues within the double bottom -- 5177-5232-- and the double top --5599-5608--. Till we have a decisive breakout , expect a lack lustre sideways movement creating whipsaws.



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