Reigning The Nifty -31st May , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart I

Daily Chart II

Half  Hourly Chart

Weekly  Charts

• Bullish  candle on high volumes taking support at  trendline from November lows.
• Oscillators have taken support at levels which have proved turning points previously.
• Lower high lower low maintained.

Daily Charts

• Third consecutive day of higher high higher low with huge white candle.
• Oscillators Rsi 14 and stochastics have turned up from oversold levels and the macd is moving up.
• On daily charts too,  Oscillators have taken support at levels which have proved turning points previously.

Half Hourly Chart

• Crossed previous peak at 5029 thus turning the short term trend up.
• Crossed 61.8% retracement of fall from 5212.
• All emas are bullishly aligned except the 50 with the 200 ema.
  

Nifty has broken out decisively from the falling wedge , setting a target of 5380. Daily and weekly oscillators are signalling more upsides. However on a weekly basis the trend is still  down with a higher high higher low candle. One can be cautiously long with a stop loss of  5017.

Resistances are 5095-5167-5212.

Supports are at  5017-4965-4930-4880.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 28th May, 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty broke out decisively, on good volumes, from the falling wedge with a huge bullish candle giving a target of 5380. Two huge bullish  candles in a row and the follow-up buying instills confidence that bulls may have found their feet again. The close below 200dema was only for a day. Nifty , initially in the red, took good support exactly at the 200 dema and closed at the highs.

Daily oscillators are moving up from oversold zone and the macd has given an uptick.OBV has crossed it's peak which corresponds with Nifty's peak at 5212. This is a positive signal.

On half hourly charts all emas are bullishly aligned except with the 200ema which proved resistance today at 5013. Nifty must trade above this average consistently to turn the trend bullish.The oscillators though strong have reached overbought zone and stochastics has shown a minor negative divergence.

The fall from 5400 is still to prove itself  different from the earlier corrections in this rally pointwise. A fall below 4897 which is today's low and the 50% fibo level of rise from 4786 will weaken the Nifty once again.

The weekly support was at 4833 and resistance at 5047. Refer to my weekly post  for  the  chart.

The Daily support is at 4963-4924 (strong support) and resistance at  5022-5047-5102.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 27th May, 2010

 Daily Chart

Nifty bounced back with a vengence once again above the 200 dema on high volumes,but remained below the resistance of 4947 mentioned yesterday. The bounce though impressive with a 110 point rise, has formed an indecisive "Inside Day". Traders will have to wait for a break above or below the yesterday's candle which is at 4946 and 4786 to be sure of the short term direction.

The resistance of 4947 is now stronger with the falling wedge too offering resistance at 4948. The 23.6% fibo level of the entire fall from 5400 is at 4931 making a good barrier around the levels of 4931-4948.
5022 --38.2% fibo level of fall from 5400 to 4786 and  5029 being the latest peak made on 24th May will also prove strong resistances.

Resistance at 4931-4947-5022-5030.

Support  at  4898-4840-4796-4755.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 26th May, 2010

Daily Chart

 

Yesterday I wrote, " Bears have an upper hand till the down trending channel is broken out decisively". The Bears did take advantage of  yesterday's ominous looking candle, sending the Nifty in a violent downfall of  166 points. The direction was just one way with the close managing only a 30 point recovery.

To be able to attempt a recovery, Bulls need a close above 4947 , a level above which Nifty has not been able to sustain since last 4 days. . Failing to recover above this point will make it easier for bears to slide to 4675-4615 levels.

A falling wedge has emerged which is a bullish pattern which has  support  at 4770 and resistance at 4975.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 25th May, 2010

 Daily Chart

The Nifty made an  Ominous Doji with a  long upper shadow on daily charts.Volumes were very average and breadth slightly positive.This shows confusion once again with bears faltering at lows helping to keep at  Friday's close, and bulls unable to continue follow-up buying.

 

Daily oscillators , stochastics is moving up from oversold zone , and Rsi 14 is moving up after positive divergence.

Bears have an upper hand till the down trending channel is broken out decisively.

Resistance at  5000-5080.

Supports at 4900-4845.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 24th May , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

 Weekly Charts

• Nifty closed down, below the trendline joining lows from 3918.
• This was the sixth consecutive week of fall, maximum duration among corrections since March lows.
• Oscillators are weak and have moved below their lows made in Feb 2010.Stochastic  has reached oversold zone.
• Volumes for the week was high  and breadth very poor.

Daily Chart

• Hammer formed at crucial support of 4844.
• The bounce was  from the trend  line joining lows made during the fall from 5400.
• Close above 200dema though intraday panic broke the support.
• Positive divergence in Rsi 14 intact.Stochastic has reached oversold zone.
• Volumes were good and breadth was poor.
• AD line has fallen to it's lowest level since September 2009.

Half Hourly Charts

• Oscillators moving up after showing positive divergence.
• Maintained close within the falling channel.

The Nifty is in a downtrend for the sixth consecutive week. Oscillators have started showing positive divergence . Stochastics on the weekly and daily charts have reached oversold zone. The daily charts show a hammer formed at good support. The Bullish Hammer Pattern is a significant candlestick that occurs at the bottom of a trend or during a downtrend and it is called a hammer since it is hammering out a bottom.The hammer has been  formed after violating the 200 dema  intra day and  recovering sharply from the lows of 4842. 

The above indications point at the probability of  a short term bottom having been formed  at 4842. Hammer patterns need confirmation with a bullish candle the next trading day.Watch out for a bullish day on Monday. 


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 21st May , 2010

Daily Chart

Nifty made an Inside day pattern which shows indecision.  Today's candle shows weak bulls as yesterday's bearish candle stands tall and bearish in the background. The long upper shadow shows inability to maintain highs.Reaction came in at 4980, exactly at the 23.6 %  retracement level of fall from 5212 to 4908.

The 200 dema support still holds raising hopes of a pullback.The Rsi 14 on daily charts has shown positive divergence.The half hourly oscillators are moving up with positive divergence intact.

Strong support at  4898-4858-4844.

Resistance at 4980-5025-5065.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 20th May, 2010

 Daily Chart

Nifty finally broke the last trendline support with a huge bear candle on good volumes and very negative breadth. Strong support of 200 dema at 4897 and positive divergence on half hourly charts  suggest support may be near.

Resistance at 5105.

Support at  4897-4871-4844.
.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 17th May , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Weekly Chart

• An "Inside candle" with a long upper shadow on average volumes.
• The low of 4984 of last week was not visited during the week gone by, which makes it significant support.
• Oscillators are weak, stochastics is close to the oversold zone and macd has given a down tick and is in buy. The Rsi 14 however has turned up above the 50 level showing strength.
• The trendline from low of 3918 has support at 5025.

Daily Chart

• The Nifty could not make the follow through buying and fell due to lack of buying as the fall was on very low volumes.In the last week, volumes on rise has been more than on falls.
• Oscillators are weak and falling fast .
• The Stochastics has given a sell in the overbought zone indicating more fall may be there.
• The 5,10 & 20 dema's continue to be bearishly aligned.

Half Hourly Chart

• Double top around 5200 levels giving a target of 4986.
• Broken out of the rising wedge giving a target of 4945.
• Stochastics and Rsi 14 reached oversold levels.
• Taken support exactly at the 61.8% fibo level of rise from 4984 to 5212.

Nifty has taken support at the 5071 level which is the 61.8% fibo level from 4984 to 5212. Holding this level will resume the uptrend finding resistance once again at 5150-5200 levels.Weekly charts show that the volume of the fall in the week ended 7th May and week ended 14th May were almost the same. Thus  the Nifty fell more easily but could not rise that easily on same volumes indicating more selling pressure than buying pressure.The trend is down and selling on rallies will be the trading mantra.

Weekly supports are at 5027-4823. Daily supports are at  5015-4909. 200 dema is at  4894.Previous low made is 4984.  This makes the 4900-5025 a good support zone.

Will not be updating tomorrow due to a personal engagement.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 14th May , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Line Chart

Today was an unimpressive higher high higher low candle. Intraday the Nifty managed to breakout of the channel but could not sustain above it as the 50% fibo level of rise from 4984 proved strong for the fourth consecutive day. The volumes were low and breadth marginally positive.On daily line charts the Nifty has given a breakout from the down trending channel.

Half hourly oscillators have started moving down from overbought regions after showing negative divergence. Amongst half hourly emas the 5 and 10 ema are once again bearishly aligned showing short term bearishness. The 200 ema is at 5183 and will prove resistance.The 50 ema will be support at 5158.

Daily oscillators are moving up from oversold levels.The short term dema 5,10 and 20 are bearishly aligned. The 50 dema too offers resistance at 5181 and 20 dema at 5192.. Down trending channel on daily charts offers resistance at 5179. 5212 is the  top made  on the rise from recent lows at 4984. The Nifty needs to cross  the range from 5181 to 5212  for further upsides.

The Nifty may move higher till the support from trendline joining lows from 3918 is held. The daily line charts which are end of day charts and give a more powerful message than bar charts, have given a breakout from the channel. However watch for a break from the threatening rising wedge on half hourly charts  to cover longs.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 13th May , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

A lower high and lower low candle bouncing exactly from the 50% fibo level of rise from 4984. The Nifty is once again in a range moving aimlessly on low volumes, and in the process creating another bearish pattern , that of a rising wedge shown in red on half hourly charts.

Daily oscillators are moving up from oversold levels.Half hourly oscillators have started moving down from overbought regions.All half hourly emas excepting the 200 ema are bullishly aligned. The 200 ema is at 5182 and will prove resistance.The short term dema 5,10 and 20 are bearishly aligned. The 50 dema too offers resistance at 5181. Down trending channel on daily charts offers resistance at 5192. 5175 is the trendline resistance on line charts.5206 is the  top made  on the rise from recent lows at 4984. This makes the range from 5175 to 5206  full of barriers to be crossed.

The Nifty may move higher till the support from trendline joining lows from 3918 is held.  However watch for a break from the rising wedge to cover longs.


Be hedged on longs and shorts .




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 12th May, 2010

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The 50% fibo level of rise from 4984 has proved strong resistance and prevented a follow through of yesterday's bullish  move. The fall though was restricted only to 38.2% , was on very low volumes and bad breadth.

For more upsides the nifty must trade above 5207 and first signs of weakness will be a break of 5126. Since the Nifty is in a short term downtrend , so the likelihood of 5126 breaking is higher.The line charts shows the failure to break above 5200.

Resistance is at 5241 the 61.8% fibo level. The fall to 4984 consumed 22 days . A faster retracement to 5400 would be bullish .The trendline from 3918 is now very significant support.Till this line holds the Nifty may move higher.Support from this trendline is at 4999.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 11th May, 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Line Chart

• Huge bullish candle retracing 50 % of fall from 5400 on good breadth and average volumes.
• Daily oscillators moving up from oversold area and macd has shown an uptick.
• Half hourly charts show breakout form downward sloping channel giving a target of 5276 and above the green trendline once again.
• Half hourly oscillators are strong and have reached the overbought zone.
• The 5,10,20 & 50 emas are now bullishly aligned on half hourly charts.

I wrote yesterday, The intraday charts though are showing positive divergence and very minor bullish patterns which could develop into a small bouce. What seemed like a small bounce in the offing,  turned out to be huge bounce of  175 points!  50 % of the fall was retraced in one day !

The Nifty needs to trade above 5213 tomorrow in order to continue the bullishness. Resistance is at 5241 the 61.8% fibo level. The fall to 4984 consumed 22 days . A faster retracement to 5400 would be bullish . 

The trendline from 3918 is now very significant support.Till this line holds the Nifty may move higher.Support from this trendline is at 4994.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 10th May, 2010

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Weekly    

• Bearish black candle breaking and closing below the trendline from March 2009 lows.
• Volumes were good and breadth very negative.
• Oscillators are weak below the 50 level and macd is once again in sell mode.
• Trendline support at 4814

Daily

• Fall continuously on all days of the last week on increasing volumes and extremely bad breadth.
• 61.8 % fibo support at 4955 of rise from 4675 . 
• Oscillators weak and stochastics in oversold zone in positive divergence.
• Taken support on trendline from 3918. Must trade above 4990 for a bounce from the trendline.
• 200 dema at 4880 coinciding with the 50% fibo level of rise from 3918  and the 200dsma is at 4962 almost coinciding with 61.8% fibo level of rise from 4675.

Intra day

• Oscillators showing positive divergence.
• A falling wedge and inverted head and shoulder pattern seen formed in the last two days action.
• All emas bearishly aligned.

The nifty has fallen sharply for the last 5 trading days without respite.The daily and weekly oscillators are weak and indicating further fall. The intraday charts though are showing positive divergence and very minor bullish patterns which could develop into a small bouce.Strong supports at 4960-4955-4880 supports this possibility.

Trade above 5046 is necessary for further bullishness.Resistance is at 5150.

The trend is down and one should look for oppurtunities to short on rallies.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 7th May,2010

Daily Chart I

Daily Chart II

Half Hourly Chart

 

• Lower high lower low continues.
• Long lower shadow showing support at lower levels.
• Bounce from 50 % fibo level  of rise from 4675.
• Half hourly oscillators in positive divergence.
• Daily oscillators moving weakly towards oversold levels.

The nifty is in a downtrend and has failed to show strength on the intraday bounces. The nifty took support at the 50% fibo level which is considered a significant support..If  held then we may see an uptrend. The bounce which has started from 5038 will find resistance at  5135 and  5192.

Till the Nifty trades above 5135 weakness will persist. Supports are at 5038-4950

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 6th May,2010

 Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

Today's candle was  bearish with a bullish tinge. It broke supports but the long lower shadow  showed good support at lower levels. Till this level holds we may expect some recovery. However the neckline shown in green on half hourly charts  and the neckline on daily line charts shown yesterday has been violated. The trend is now down  as we have a lower high at 5342 and a lower low below 5160.

Sell on rise is the trading mantra until proven otherwise.

Supports and Resistance marked on charts.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 5th May,2010

 Daily Chart

 Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Important supports broken by a huge black candle on average volumes and bad breadth.The trendline joining March 2009 lows and low of 4675 has been broken.On line charts the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the lower trendline of down sloping channel have been broken bearishly.The 50 dema which was providing good support has also been violated. This indicates further fall.

However the green and red trendlines on half hourly charts are yet to be broken and give strong support at 5140 and 5100. If broken then strong support is at 4975 which is 61.8% fibo level shown on line charts and trendline support shown on candle charts.Further down the Nifty may find support at the 200dema at 4875.

The 50 dema will prove resistance now at 5200. Scaling this level once again could be bullish.

Supports at 5140-5100-4975. Resistance at 5200-5250.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 4th May,2010

 Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

Sideways market with a downward bias. The uptrendline from 4675 has been decisively broken. However, volumes were very low. Short term emas all bearishly aligned on daily charts. On Half hourly charts all emas are bearishly aligned.  Strong support at 5200 still not violated.

Support at 5200-5150. Resistance at  5278-5295-5315.
 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 3rd May, 2010

Monthly Chart

 Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Monthly Charts 

• A higher high and a higher low continues but on falling volumes, breadth, and contracting range, forming a rising wedge which is bearish.
• Oscillators continue showing negative divergence.
• Support for the month at 4997 and resistance at 5487.

Weekly Charts

• A higher high and higher low but showing  indecision in the doji's formed for the second consecutive week.
• Oscillators are weak after showing negative divergence.
• Volumes have been average.
• Support for the week is at 5198 below which the downward momentum could accelerate.

Daily Charts

• Bullish candles since the last two days yet not been able to retrace completely the fall on the 28th April.
• Oscillators are weak and moving down making lower highs and lower lows.
• 5 ema is below the 10 ema showing waning bullish sentiment.
• 50 dema at 5199.
• Range contracting  from 5400-5160 to  5342-5202  implying extreme indecisiveness. Expect  blowout effect when these ranges are broken.

Half Hourly Charts

• Barring the 50 and 200 ema all other 5,10,20 are bullishly aligned.
• Oscillators are neutral.

The medium term charts though bullish have been started showing bearish indications, which should putlongs on alert. The  coiling effect seen by formation of the equilateral triangle will sooner or later give way to a sharp move. Possibilities of it being on the downside is more.

Keep positions, long or short, hedged. 5200 should be the stop loss for longs and  5350 for the shorts.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com