Reigning The Nifty - 31st December, 2009

 Daily Chart

 

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

• Today's black candle was a bearish engulfing candle and gave confirmation to  yetserday's shooting star's bearishness though on low volumes
  
•  Negative divergences on daily and weekly charts persist. Daily Line charts show negative divergence with the OBV.
  
• The close is below the breakout point of 5182 which takes the Nifty back into the range of 4942-5181.A close below this level will keep the range intact on the weekly and monthly charts.
• The breakout point on Line charts is at 5148 which will give support.
  
• The 5,10 & 20 ema are bearishly aligned. The 50 ema gives support at 5141 .Below this the earlier low of 5129 gives support.
• Fibo supports are marked on the charts.

The strategy of holding longs till decisive break of the rising wedge continues,  but hedge your longs. Non savvy traders could  keep a strict stop loss of 4940.

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 30th December, 2009

Daily Chart

Shooting star like candle formed which is bearish. Volumes were low.  However managed to stay above breakout point of 5182.

Daily Line Chart

The rise may stall at the upper trendline of the rising wedge which is around 5400.With resistances at 5299-5330 as shown below.Double bottom target at 5354

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

 

The negative divergences shown earlier still persist..The effect though looks like a sideways movement.

The startegy of staying long till the lower trendline of the rising wedge continues. However hedged longs will be sensible though it may diminish profits a little  as the rise is  hesitant.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 29th December, 2009

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

 

Weekly Volume Chart

• A big bull candle on weekly charts.
• The Nifty  is still stuck in the range of 5181-4942 though there was an intra day break above 5181, which could not sustain.
• The Line charts paint a different picture , showing a breakout from the previous highs of  5148. This move confirms the double bottom made at 4942 giving an immediate target of 5354.
• Moving Averages on all time frames are bullishly aligned.
• Macd on daily charts has given a buy.
  
• Negative divergence in daily and weekly time frame still persist.
  
• The half hourly charts show a minor negative divergence 
• Though the weekly volume is low, it is due to the truncated week.
• Volumes were low on the down days of the week and high on up days.
  

Markets are  bullish as the fall in seven days was recovered in three days ! Trade long till a decisive break of the trendline joining lows of 3918 & 4538 which forms the lower trendline of the rising wedge.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 24th December, 2009

Daily Line Chart

 

A close above 5148 will resurrect the uptrend and confirm the double bottom giving a target of 5348.

Daily Chart

Big bullish candle on very good volumes indicating buying

Half Hourly Chart

Resistance at 5152  -5182 -5229

Supports at 5100-5070-5047-5022

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 23rd December, 2009

Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

A sideways movement  within yesterday's range forming and Inside day on low volumes. Positive divergence spotted on half hourly charts which I had pointed out on the discussion forum . The divergences are intact.Yesterday's lows were not even visited which is a positive and yesterday's highs were not taken out which is indecisive action. The fall from 5181 is in a channel with resistance at 4985 and support at 4882. Scaling the high of last two days around 4998 will be the first step in the right direction  for the bulls.

Fibinacci  resistances  of fall from 5182-4944  are 5003-5035-5062-5090

Supports at 4944-4924-4882-4860-4806

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 22nd December, 2009

Daily Line Chart

OBV, the one indicator which was holding above the  trendline from March lows has finally broken down.Now we have one more evidence of bearishness.

Half Hourly Chart

Half Hourly chart shows how one bearish pattern after the other is appearing.

The next support is at 61.8% fibo level at 4950 of rise from 4807 though broken briefly today. The 38.2% fibo level of rise from 4538 is at 4935. The double top target is at 4924.

The 4925 to 4950 level has strong supports. Watch out for a pullback from these levels.However a break from these levels would lead to a test of 4806 low  with a strong support at 4820 from the trendline joining lows of 3918 and 4538 , shown on weekly charts.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 21st December, 2009

 Weekly Volume Chart

Weekly Chart

There was no breakout from the " Inside " pattern made last week. An evening star pattern has been formed This is a  bearish candlestick pattern consisting of three candles

• The first candle is a large white candlestick in an existing  uptrend. 
•  The second candle is a small-bodied candle (black or white) that closes above the first white bar.
• The last candle is a large black candle that opens below the middle candle and closes near the center of the first candle's body.

A break down from the rising wedge has occured giving a target of 4420.

Amongst  the momentum indicators , Macd is in sell and  the RSI14 has broken the low made on 27th November.  This low corresponds with 4806 low made by Nifty on that date.The stochastics has given a sell once again in the overbought region.

The fall however has been on low volumes which is heartening to the bulls.

A lot of evidence leaning towards bearishness . However one could wait for the Inside pattern low of 4942 to be broken before being outright bearish

Daily Chart

Nifty has broken below the 50 dema. A falling wedge is seen having support at  4953. Breakout will be at 5022. The daily oscillators have all broken below the low made on 27 th November . So a break of the corresponding low of Nifty at 4806 is very possible.

 Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The head and shoulder target shown on half hourly charts has been achieved. The next support is at 61.8% fibo level at 4950 of rise from 4807. The 38.2% fibo level of rise from 4538 is at 4935. The double top target is at 4924.

The 4925 to 4950 has strong supports. Watch out for a pullback from these levels.However a break from these levels would lead to a test of 4806 low  with a strong support at 4820 from the trendline joining lows of 3918 and 4538 , shown on weekly charts.

Look to trade short for targets shown in various time frames until we have evidence of the uptrend resuming.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 18th December, 2009

Daily Chart

 Two Doji consecutively  forming an "Inside day "on daily charts. A falling wedge shown in Red. 5,10 & 20 dema's bearishly aligned. Price below the 20dema for thrid consecutive day.

Half Hourly Chart

Falling wedge in green and equilateral triangle in red. Double top and Head and shoulder bearish pattern targets yet not achieved. Not much strength seen . 50 period bearishly aligned with the 200 period ema .

Sensex Daily Chart

Inside day shown vividly on the sensex.

Look for direction on break of high or low of the candle of 16th.

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 17th December, 2009

A Volatile day making a lower low and lower high, but  took support exactly on the trendline joining lows of 4538 and 4806.

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Trade short till there is a decisive  breakout from the  green trendline .

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 16th December, 2009

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Line Chart

 The weakness was evident since last few days and I had mentioned that  "Since last two trading sessions a sharp sell of  at midsession  is seen with no attempts to recover  the highs of the day".The Nifty made a huge black bearish candle today.

Head and shoulder neckline at 5084 broken giving a target of 4984

Double top at 5182 confirmed by break of the trough at 5051 giving a target of 4924

Fibonacci supports before reaching these levels is marked.

Daily Line charts next support is at 4942.

Trade with appropriate stops as per risk profile

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 15th December, 2009

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Sideways movement since the beginning of December  within 5051-5182. Since last two trading sessions a sharp sell of  at midsession  is seen with no attempts to recover  the highs of the day. Macd on daily charts has given a sell.

Daily Line Charts forces us to be bearish for a final target of 3850.

Half hourly charts show a bearish Head & Shoulder pattern. Break of the neckline around 5084 will give a 100 point move down to 4984.The trendline joining lows of 4538 and 4806 on daily charts, has support at 4980 for tomorrow. The 200 period ema on half hourly charts is also at 4980. So this should be good support.   4950 is the 61.8% retracement of rise from 4806-5182. If the Nifty takes support at these levels then the uptrend would be intact.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 14th December, 2009

Weekly Charts

A doji star, well depicted on the sensex,  on weekly charts which signals reversal with confirmation on the next candle. Last weeks range of 5181-4942 was left undisturbed. An "inside pattern" formed , well conformed on the sensex. The positives to be taken was that trading was more concentrated towards the high of 5181 rather than the low of 4942.Oscillators are looking tired. I too am tired detecting rising wedges which are impotent. Anyway spotted another one shown in red . Further direction will be clear after break of last week's range.

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Daily chart  show the third unsuccessful strike at the 5182 level . On the sensex  a lower high was made. Line charts have already broken the recent uptrendline.Obv has broken below  the low made on 7th .All the oscillators have been weak throughout this rally.Macd is ready to give a sell. The uptrend is still intact as all period emas are bullishly aligned. However the  rise from 4538 has been sluggish , having taken more time in recovering to touch the previous high and being unable to scale it.

Advance Decline Line too is sluggish .

Advance Decline

Half Hourly Chart

We now have a triple top at 5182. The rising wedge has support at 4965 and resistance at 5205.

The latest action has formed an ascending triangle, which is a  bullish pattern

.

Chameleons can trade long with a stop loss of 5095-5105 which are the levels of the lower trendline of the triangle. Positional longs can keep a stop at 5051  which was the last significant low made.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 11th December, 2009

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

 Nifty has not been able to breakout from the triangle shown on half hourly charts. However it has maintained above the dotted trendline shown on line charts.There was a lower high and low compared to yesterday's candle but yet within the candle of  8th.


 It has been a week of indecisiveness. The 100 point  range till thursday betwen 5152-5051 has been within the wide range of last week.Only a  move above 5181 or below 4942 , the high and low of the week ended 4th December, will give further direction. Till then chameleons will have to bear up with the whipsaws.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 10th December, 2009

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

 

False breakout above 5142 on line charts. Nifty has broken the dashed  uptrendline on line charts. This trendline on candlecharts offers support at 4936.

Daily Chart

Obv shows negative divergence and has crossed below the recent low made on 7th December. Corresponding low of Nifty is at 5051.

If trades below 5090 and breaks 5050 then should find support at  4936.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 9th December, 2009

Today was a huge bull candle which took the Nifty back above the pink trendline. The hurdle of 5182 still looms.

 Daily Chart

The line charts however, show a clear higher bottom  higher top formation having closed above the earlier top of 5142. Support taken exactly on the blue dashed uptrendline. Till this uptrendline is violated,  Nifty will be making upmoves. I have not removed the target of 3850 from the charts as it would be wise to wait till the candle charts too show a breakout above 5182.

Daily Line Chart

Half hourly chart shows bullish breakout from consolidation  and  EMA's once again bullishly aligned

Half Hourly Chart

Trade long with a stop loss at 5050.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 8th December, 2009

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

• Support taken on lower trendline of sloping channel shown on half hourly charts. 
• Third consecutive day of lower top lower bottom on daily charts.
• Line charts show a lower top and has helped in keeping in mind that the breakdown target of 3850 is still valid.
• Closing below 4942 will be  indication of  further weakness.
  
• Daily oscillators too have been weak through the rise from 4538.
• Supports marked on charts for reference.

 Trade short  with stop loss as per risk profile

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com