Reigning The Nifty - The Possibilities

Weekly Chart

 

 Nifty is in an uptrend and is moving within a rising wedge which is by character a bearish pattern. The fourth leg up seems to be in progress which has the capability to move towards the wedge's resistance line at 6246 for the coming week.It will face strong resistance at the 5944-5971 levels as pointed out in the above weekly chart. It has shown the initial signs of a pullback.Strong supports exist at 5815-5818-5816. Bounce from these levels will be a positive for the bulls and Nifty may attempt to cross the 5971-6112 highs. 

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S&P500 29th April 2013

Weekly Chart 

 Will this rising wedge spell doom for the S&P 500 ?

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S&P500 22nd April 2013

Weekly Chart 

A break and close below the   1576 top last week proving it was a false breakout.Oscillators showing weakness after turning down from the overbought zone indicates more fall in the offing.

Daily Chart

Support taken at the 200 Ema and low of 1539 on daily charts.Oscillators show the possibility of a pullback with the stochastics in oversold zone and the Rsi14 at support which has held during the last three pullbacks.

Daily Chart showing oscillaotrs

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Reigning The Nifty 22nd April 2013

 

 

Weekly Chart

Last week we had rightly pointed out " The candle for the week is a spinning top which has occured at strong support of the uptrendline thus increasing possibility of a reversal of the downtrend ".Weekly Charts saw the  Nifty make a very bullish candle after last week's spinning top confirming the view.The candle recovered the last three week's range and scaled the 40 Wema.The oscillaotrs too are gaining momentum.Resistance comes at 5815-5832-5971 which needs to be taken out to confirm whether the uprend has strength indeed.

Daily Chart

 Daily charts saw a bullish engulfing pattern scaling and closing above the red neckline of the bearish head and shoulder pattern and the 50 Ema.The previous minor top of 5755 too was overcome.The 20/200 and 20/50 continue to be in a sell mode.Resistances at 5815-5837 needs to be scaled decisively to inidcate the upmove is strong and sustaining.


Half Hourly Chart

The rally from 5478 is within an uptrending channel  which will guide us about immediate weakness /strength. The resistance from this channel at end of trading session on Monday is at  5894.  5854 is the 76.4% fibo resistance level of fall from 5971 to 5478 and 5869  is the 50% fibo resistance level of fall from 6112 to 5478 and Gap resistance is at 5850-5873.  making the 5854-5869-5894 level strong resistance.Cross will see an attempt to move above the highs of 5971.

Half Hourly Chart - Fibonacci Resistances

Half Hourly Chart - Fibonacci Supports

Nifty made bullish moves this week and oscillators show more room exists for the upmove.However, the 20/200 and 20/50 Ema are still in sell mode.Swing high of 5971 and the downtrendline from 6112 highs both are strong resistances.Fibonacci resistance too exists at 5870-5962.Gap resistance is at 5850-5873. A plethora of resistances to be overcome.

Long positions adequately hedged can be held with a stop loss at 5670-5700 .

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Disclaimer

All the calls made in this section are based on my judgment and the information available at the particular point of time. Adequate precaution has been taken while writing the analysis. However, no responsibility is taken for the losses or gains made through the analysis, either legally or otherwise. Readers are advised that acting on the analysis is at their own risk. Stock Market trading involves risk and is a high risk & high return business and I do not accept any financial and/or legal responsibility arising from the use of the informationo

S&P500 19th April 2013

Daily Chart

 If stop and bounce at 1539 then we may have the right shoulder of a bearish head and shoulder pattern forming.  Support at 1539-1526-1485.

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S&P500 18th March 2013

Daily Chart 

 S&P500 has turned volatile with a one day up and the next day down trade.Range too is more than usual.This shows a confusion about whether the uptrend will continue.Stop loss on longs to continue at 1539.

 
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S&P500 16th April 2013

Daily Chart

 The blue rising wedge was broken decisively and the close is below the 20 Ema and the red uptrending channel.This confirms the bearishness of the hanging man of Monday which appeared after resistance at the rising wegde resistance line was respected.The fall should continue and could test the february low of 1485.

Confluence of supports available at 1539.Need to see how bulls and bears play at this level.

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S&P500 15th April 2013

Weekly Chart 

 

The S&P500 is giving a good lesson on "Let your profits run ".

Have drawn a red uptrending channel which has resistance at 1633. Like I had mentioned earlier such runs are best played with  trailing stops. 

Stop loss at minor swing low of 1639 would be prudent.

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Daily Chart

 

Half Hourly Chart

Half Hourly Chart Resistances

Half Hourly Chart Supports

 

Nifty made a bullish gap up opening and managed a close at those levels. Selling came in after some sideways move in the early part of the session which was bought into forming a long lower shadow  indicating bullishness may sustain.Gap at 5435-5527 has only been partially filled which is a positive and supports a pullback.

A probable inverted head and shoulder has been formed, shown on the half hourly chart,  with the neckline (pink) close to the bearish head and shoulder neckline(red).A cross above 5611 will confirm a breakout and give a target of around 5725 which is the 50% retracement level of fall from 5971.

The 20 Ema has broken below the 200 Ema after crossing above it in July 2012.This is a bearish sign and all pullbacks need to be seen with suspicion.The neckline of the bearish head and shoulder has resistance at 5705.Falling channel shown has resistance at 5619.Other resistances are there at 5611-5644-5665-5673 on the way to the above mentioned target.

The candle formed today might as well be a hanging man pattern which is bearish. In case the top of the candle at 5611 is not taken out resumption of the fall is highly probable.Supports are at 5544-5525-5478.

The trend is down and pullbacks should be used to sell into until more evidence is available that the uptrend is resuming.

 

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S&P500 10th April 2013

Daily Chart

 Resistance came at the rising wedge support line.Trailing stop will be at 1538.

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S&P500 9th April 2013

Daily Chart 

Support at 1538 held and till it holds the 1576 highs could be tested.

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S&P500 8th April 2013

Weekly Chart 

Daily Chart

 

When a trend extends for long periods there is nothing one can do but keep with the trend and book profits at regular intervals and use trailing stops.1538 support - low made on 19th March held well on Friday's fall and if held then the S&P will attempt the high of 1576 once again.

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S&P500 4th April 2013

Daily Chart 

 Rising wedge broken.Should give a good downmove with a target of around 90 points.

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S&P500 3rd March 2013

Daily Chart

Moving up slowly but surely but within a rising wedge which alerts longs. Resistance at 1576 - 1585 and support at 1565-1563.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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