S&P 500 update --30th November 2010

 Daily Chart

A hammer formed at significant support  --  the neckline and 50 dema raises hopes of a significant bottom having been established.The bullish hammer formation shows the bulls taking upper hand by pushing the prices to the top of the range at close.This reduces the confidence of the bears.

Today's trade would confirm whether the hammer is indeed bullish. A higher open and higher close today could be bullish for the days to come.

 
Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 30th November, 2010

Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

Bullish efforts led to a higher high and higher low being made. The high was just higher by 5 points but the low was a good 64 points higher.The close was above the uptrendline from March 2009 lows which was violated on Friday.Breadth improved considerably but volumes were not too impressive.

Nifty hit resistance at the neckline, the 5 dema and the 23.6% retracement of the fall from 6338 at 5843. Tough resistance ! Needs to trade above 5832, which is the resistance from the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder pattern, tomorrow to encourage positive efforts.The down trend line shown on Chart II  has resistance at 5818. A break above this trendline would lead to some upward  momentum.Unless good breath and volumes accompany the rise, it will be suspect.

Resistance  at 5831-5866-5910  Support at  5818-5806-5785-5765.

 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --29th November 2010

Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

The weekly charts and daily charts show an Inside Day pattern which indicates indecision.Momentum will pick up in the direction of breakout.The weekly levels for this pattern breakout is 1173-1207  and daily levels are 1183-1198.

The daily shows the sideways action since 1173 low as a pennant defined as, two converging trendlines that form a narrow, tapering flag shape, more of a  horizontal move rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend. Pennants are continuation patterns thus suggesting that the downtrend which started from the 1227 high is likely to continue.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 29th November, 2010

 Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart II

Third week of continued bearishness on very huge volumes and extremely bad breadth. The uptrendline from 4786 has been broken. However , the uptrendline from March 2009 lows proved good support. Support from this trendline for next week is at 5748.

Weekly Chart II shows fibonacci retracement levels from the high of 6338 to various lows made. The retracement levels which coincide, shown in red , should be very strong supports.

Macd has given a sell and Rsi 14 has moved below the 50 mark. Stochastics however  has moved into the oversold level increasing possibilities of a pullback.

Supports are at 5730-5628-5570-5385-4786.  Resistance  at  5843-5937-6020.

 Daily Chart

The head and shoulder target of 5425 seems plausible  seeing the relentless selling on huge volumes and weak breadth since the last two days.Attempts of recovery have been almost nil.

Stochastics is in the oversold zone with Rsi 14 and Macd are fast approaching the same.The rise from 5348 has been retraced around 62% and  rise from 4786 has been retraced around 45% .Bounce from the low of 5690  therefore, has chances of continuing.Break of this low will see a test of 5348.

 Half Hourly Chart

 Support taken on the lower trendline of the downward sloping channel shown on half hourly charts.A breakout from this channel will be necessary for upward momentum.The resistance from the channel is at 5870-5837 . Neckline resistance is at 5838-5833.

Short term trend is down but oversold. Fresh longs only when a bottom forming is proved. Fresh shorts only on a pullback.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --26th November 2010

Daily Chart

Bullish candle with a higher high and higher low, but could not overcome resistance at 1200.So the guessing game continues , will the break be above 1200 or move again towards support at 1175?
 

Support at 1184-1177-1175                         Resistance at 1200-1207-1220




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 26th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Follow up selling led to a break of the neckline giving a target of 5425. The breadth was extremely negative and volumes very heavy.The green dotted uptrendline from lows of 4786 was also broken.The downward sloping neckline is more bearish than a horizontal neckline as it indicates lower lows .The fall is well channeled as shown on the half hourly chart.

Supports are no at 5730 the 61.8% fibo level of rise from 5350-6338  and  at 5650 on the red trendline joining tops from January 2010.Up trendline from March 2009 lows on daily charts has support at 5790.Weekly support at 5707 on the up trendline from March 2009 lows will be a crucial decider of the medium term trend.

Resistance at  5845-5840 on the neckline and 5910-5875 on the upper trendline of the downtrending channel.

 


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 25th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Bulls failed to cash in on the bullishness of yesterday's hammer. However  support was once again taken on the green dotted uptrendline from the low of 4786.Also a higher high and higher low was made though with a very small difference on both ends.

The neckline of the bearish head and shoulders too has been held.The neckline is around the 5848-5850 level for tomorrow. Breaking this would find support on the lower trendline of the downward sloping channel which is around 5790-5760.Resistance from this channel is at 5950-5925.Only a break above this channel can see some pullback. The 61.8%  retracement level of rise from 5349 to 6338 is at 5730. The 38.2% retracement level of rise from 4786 to 6338  is at 5750.


Resistance at 5890-5920-5944-5976    and    Support at 5850-5825-5785-5730.


 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --24th November 2010

 Daily Chart

 The right shoulder continues to  form . Culmination would be a break of the neckline around 1173 level giving a target of 1146.

 Resistance is at  1192-1200-1206.         Supports at 1177-1173-1155-1133


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 24th November, 2010

Daily Chart

Today's candle is a hammer, formed at very good support on the trendline drawn from 4786  low made in May 2010 shown in green dotted line.The level also coincides with  the 50%  fibonacci  retracement  level which is at 5848.A bounce from the 50% level is considered bullish. Such coinciding of support levels normally leads to reversals.

The Hammer pattern signifies, a weakening in bearish sentiment. The long lower wick signifies an initial continuation of the downtrend. However, renewed buying sentiment acts as support and drives the price higher to close near its opening price.A follow up buying taking prices higher will confirm the reversal.

Half Hourly Chart

A breakout from the downward sloping channel shown in the half hourly charts whoich is around 5982-5950 levels for tomorrow will set the momentum up. The neckline of the bearish head and shoulders pattern was broken intraday. Keep an eye on the neckline in case prices do not show much upward momentum.

Resistance 5945-6020-6144.         Support  5837-5824-5728.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --23rd November, 2010

 Daily Chart

A hammer and the hanging man have the same form but, while the former appears during a downtrend the latter appears during an uptrend. Both are reversal patterns. Since the S&P500 is now at crossroads, it is difficult to identify the pattern.

Delving more deeply we can see that a lower top and a lower bottom was formed yesterday. Also, the right shoulder of the bearish head and shoulders pattern seems to be forming .Lower top at 1200 has been made.So identifying it as a hanging man seems more relevant.

Resistance at 1200 and support at 1185.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 23rd November, 2010

Daily Chart

Finally a higher high higher low candle which has also broken out of the down trendline drawn for this fall. Today's candle was a huge bullish candle giving a rise of 120 points.The close was above the 50 dema and the 23.6% fibo retracement level, which is a positive.

Moving past the 6144 level, which was the last peak made on the 16th November, will be the confirmation that the uptrend may have resumed. The formation of an expanding triangle, which normally should have three peaks has been shown in red. This leg up from the low of 5863 could lead to the third peak which would then have to be higher than the earlier peak of 6338 to conform to the pattern.

Half Hourly Chart

Looking at the action in a slightly different way, I see a  bearish  head and shoulder pattern which has a neckline sloping downwards.The upmove from 5863 would then form the right shoulder.

So the upmove from 5863 can either form a right shoulder or else move higher to form the third peak for the expanding triangle.

Situation is fluid and the short term trend unclear. Keep positions light and hedged.  

Resistance is  6047-6086-6103-6144.  Supports are at 5983-5961-5942-5924.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --22nd November, 2010

 Daily Chart

Firday trading formed an Inside Day pattern showing indecision , since neither the high nor low of the previous day could be conquered. The positve is that the breakout from the short term down trendline was maintained and good support came in at the low of 1189.

The head and shoulder bearish pattern formation is still in progress. Keep a watch on this pattern till the earlier high of 1227 is taken out.
 


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 22nd November, 2010

 Weekly Chart

Last week I wrote, " The filling up of the gaps and the bearish engulfing candle being formed on much higher volumes than on the previous week's bull candle are two more nails in the coffin. Confirmation  in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close is required on the third candle. Watch out for these features on the coming week's candle".  

The bearishness has been confirmed by a bearish black candle giving a close below the important support level of 5937 and stopped around the support of 5860 shown in last week's weekly chart..This gives a potential target of 5540. The only positive is that the volumes were below average.Breadth though was very negative.Oscillators have broken levels held since 5348 lows.Macd is on the verge of giving a sell.

Supports are at 5816-5707-5622-5522.  Resistance at 5972-6024-6144.

Daily Chart

With the last swing low 5937 broken, the next previous low at 5348 comes into contention.Supports to prevent this level from being tested are at 5848-5816-5730-5642. Though the time taken to break the  support of 5937 took longer than the rise indicating it is just a correction, the  fall has been sharp and without respite giving one the feeling of more selling to come.

Oscillators have broken levels held since 5348 lows.Stochastics is now in extreme oversold zone and Macd is below zero line.

A close below 5875 will break the uptrendline from March 2009 lows on line charts.The same trendline on candle charts has support at 5747.Violating these levels will mean the uptrend from March 2009 is over.Holding these levels  therefore, is important if the uptrend is to continue.

Only  if the level of 6000-6045 is crossed decisively can the uptrend have chances of resuming.

Supports are at 5848-5816-5730-5642  and  Resistance at  5900-5921-5939-5955-6000.

Half Hourly Chart

 

Half hourly chart shows break down from the expanding triangle..The sharp downtrnding channel which was violated once has given support again.A break out from this channel will be required for any upside attempts.
The levels for such a breakout should be around 5980-6000.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --19th November

 Daily Chart

Yesterday I wrote," The daily stochastics has reached oversold zone making it ripe for a bounce or sideways move ". The bounce came as expected on good volumes with a breakout from the  downtrendline drawn from the top of 1227 . This is bullish.

A potential bearish head and shoulder formation is seen with the neckline at the lows made at 1173.The S&P 500 is now at crossroads and only further action can tell us whether the top of 1227 is going to be scaled or the neckline at 1173 broken for further downsides.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 19th November, 2010

Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

Yesterday I wrote, "  The swing low of 5937 , the 38.2%  retracement level of rise from 5348 at 5959  and  the 23.6% retracement  level of rise from 4768 at 5970 should prove good supports.Look for signs of recovery around the 5950 levels ".

The sell off to 5906 was a bit unnerving  though the supports came soon enough and  the 5950 levels held on a closing basis .The red dotted channel too has been maintained on a closing basis.Support on the lower trendline of this channel  is now at 5982.

Daily chart II shows oscillators at  levels reached  at the low of 5348.Today's candle though not bullish, does show positive efforts to stall the selling.With the longer term still in an uptrend one can be cautiously optimistic about the uptrend resuming.

Trade long with a stop loss of 5906.However trade light and be hedged till more signs of the uptrend resuming is visible.This will require a cross of  6114 which was the lower high made on 16th November 2010.

Supports are at 5982-5962-5906.  Resistance is at 6023-6042-6053.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --18th November

 Daily Chart

Bears were stalled yesterday with a doji in a very tight range.The daily stochastics has reached oversold zone making it ripe for a bounce or sideways move.The 50 dema is still not violated which is a positive, and has support at 1169.

Supports are at 1173-1169-1155   Resistance at 1183-1189-1194.


 
Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 18th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

Bearish engulfing pattern shows more bearishness to come. The support of 50 dema too failed.

The swing low of 5937 , the 38.2%  retracement level of rise from 5348 at 5959  and  the 23.6% retracement  level of rise from 4768 at 5970 should prove good supports.Look for signs of recovery around the 5950 levels.

If the above mentioned  supports break, the next support will be at  5845, the 50%  retracement level of rise from 5348 and support of the uptrendline from 4768 which would be around the 5800-5850 levels till November expiry.

Uptrend possible only on a cross above 6145 .

Hourly Chart

The half hourly chart too shows a bearish pattern - broadening top or an expanding triangle or a megaphone top.This pattern usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The signal that the pattern is complete occurs when prices fall below the lower low.

The support from this pattern's lower trendline is around the 5920 levels.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --17th November

 Daily Chart

The hope of the correction being a consolidation within a bear flag was broken with a huge bearish candle which broke through the flag's lower trendline and through the strong support of 1182.Extreme bad breadth and huge volumes show bears may be in control for a while now.


Thers is good support at 1168 from the 50 dema  and at 1155 being the 38.2% fibonacci retracement level of rise form 1040.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --16th November

 Daily Chart

An "Inside Day",  showing  indecision. Direction will be set on break of 1194, the low of Friday or, a breakout from 1210, the high of Friday.

The fall is within a well formed channel which has resistance at 1199 and support at 1184. Support  at 23.6% fibo level of rise from 1040 is at 1182.Around the 1182 levels good support was found during sideways consolidation on the way up to 1227.Expect good support around this level. If the support breaks then  1155-1160 would be good support.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 16th November , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty almost closed in on the last gap between 6032-6085 which now makes the low of today , 6039 very important support.

The support of 6069 mentioned yesterday was violated intraday and recovered quite hesitatingly, but  finally ended up by 50 points.  The recovery effort  is not too impressive.Resistance is at 6153-6202-6224. Till these levels are crossed one has to be careful on longs.

Corrections are healthy and welcome though it unnerves you. But till strong supports are broken and the longer term is still up, one needs to be cautiously optimistic and be careful on shorts too!  Supports are at  6101-6060-6039.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --15th November

Weekly Chart

On checking the weekly charts, found that the S&P 500 was up against very strong resistance  at 1220 and rightly reacted from the level. This level has been good support and resistance several times in the last six years ! The weekly has formed an " Inside pattern " which shows indecision. look for a break from the previous week's high or low at 1227-1177.

Daily Chart

Friday saw a decisive break below the uptrend line from 1040. Strong support is at 1182.Resistance is at 1210. Trade light till the cloud of uncertainity clears.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 15th November , 2010

 Weekly Chart

Weekly candle was a bearish engulfing pattern and spells bad omen for the bulls. The Bearish Engulfing Pattern is an important top reversal signal.The gap up moves from bottom of 5937 had already made the Nifty vulnerable to profit taking.The Bearish Engulfing Pattern appearing after such a move  is more likely to be an important bearish reversal indicator.The filling up of the gaps and the bearish engulfing candle being formed on much higher volumes than on the previous week's bull candle are two more nails in the coffin. Confirmation  in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close is required on the third candle. Watch out for these features on the coming week's candle.

Daily Chart

The bearish engulfing pattern on daily charts at the high of 6336 on 8th November has finally shown it's bearishness.Though there was sideways movement for the next two days, the high point was not even attempted and soon after Nifty started melting and formed two bearish candles in succession.The trendline joining lows of 5349 and 5937 has also been broken.

Daily charts have been showing negative divergences and the Macd has given a sell.The 5 dema has bearishly crossed below the 10 dema. The close is below the 20 dema which is now resistance at 6155. The 50 dema offers support at 6002.

If the support on the red trendline at 6069 holds then we can see some pullback else a test of the low of 5937 is possible.

Weight of evidence in the short term is towards bearishness.Since strong supports are at 5937-6002 the Nifty may give a technical bounce.Only if the bounce crosses above 6230 should one expect the uptrend to continue. Till the decisive break of 5937 or the cross of 6230  on the weekly charts, trade with caution as  it is yet to be proved whether this is just a correction in the uptrend or a reversal.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 Update 12th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

After trading in the danger territory of possible break down from the uptrendline for a good part of the trading session, Bulls put up a good fight to keep the S&P500 from breaking yesterday's low and pushed it up to form a Doji. This may help in stalling the bears from being aggressive.Volumes have been falling on the fall which supports this view.

Support on the uptrendline for today is at 1206.Resistance is at 1216-1218-1226.

 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 12th November , 2010

 Daily Chart

Today's candle filled the second gap between 6182-6199 and took support at the 38.2% retracement level of rise from 5937.The candle was wide ranged and with high volumes, shows bears in control. The next gap is between 6138-6147.  6138 is the 50% retracement level of rise from 5937. Look for support at this level failing which the last gap support between 6032-6084 should come into the picture. The 6090 is  the 61.8% retracement level.6103 is the 23.6% retracement level of rise from 5349.

Half Hourly Chart

Half Hourly charts show the decending triangle breakout giving a target of 6143.

Supports at 6148-6132  -----6103- 6084-6032.          Resistance is at 6218-6242-6261.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 Update 11th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

 The sequence of lower top lower bottom candle continues.Important support at 1204 on up trendline from 1040.The recovery yesterday from lows of 1204 has closed above the 61.8% retracement level of fall from 1227 to 1204.This raises the possibility of testing the high of 1227 again.

Support at  1204-1182.  Resistance is at 1227.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 11th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

 Today was an  " Inside Day " showing indecision.A break above 6311 or below 6243 is awaited for further direction.

Half Hourly Chart

The breakout from the flag did not show momentum and it was another day of sideways correction. The move from the high of 6338 is sideways and now shows forming an inverted head and shoulder with the neckline around 6305.

Half Hourly Chart II

Chart II shows a descending triangle which is bearish. Support of 6243 must hold to shoo away the bears.

Supports at 6270-6243-6200.Resistance at 6294-6311-6338.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --10th November

Daily Chart

1127 was tested again only to move down and make a lower low thus forming a bearish 'Outside Day" pattern. The outside day occuring at the highs and that the candle entirely encompasses last two days candle and has pierced more than 50% into the huge bullish candle of last Thursday makes it more meaningful in predicting that a short term top may have been formed.The bearish candle after a doji at the top gives support to this view.


Support of the uptrendline from 1040 is at 1199 and the 232.6% retracement level of the rise from 1040 is at 1182.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 10th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

Today was volatile within a small range of  70 points.A lower high and lower low was formed for the second day in a row.

 Half  Hourly Chart

The half hourly chart gives a clearer picture .The last two days fall has formed a bullish flag and today's last half hour candle has given a breakout from this flag.This is very bullish and the Nifty is expected to resume the uptrend.Support was taken exactly at 6243 , the 23.6% retracement levels of rise from 5937 to 6338.

A cross of 6311-6338 is desired to get confirmation. Meanwhile trade light and long with a stop loss of  6200-6151.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --9th November

 Daily Chart

A lower high lower low candle forming a doji .Pause after the  fast run up or short term reversal?.Today's candle should confirm that. The breakout from April high at 1220 was breached intraday.Keep an eye on this level for signs of short term weakness.

Good support at 1182.

 
Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 9th November, 2010

 Daily Chart

I wrote " Friday's candle is a doji star which could prove a turning point, but only a bearish candle for the 8th can confirm it".
The bearish engulfing candle formed today has done just that.The first gap between 6290-6303 made on Friday has been filled which is also a bearish signal. The bearish engulfing pattern made today is ominous too as it signals more downside. Next gap support is at  6182-6199. If this too is filled and a break below 6151 occurs then the short term would turn bearish.

Support exists at  6242-6184-6151.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com