Reigning The Nifty - 1st November, 2010

 

 Monthly Chart

The monthly charts show a bearish doji with a long upper shadow.The close is around the same levels as the last month with a minor loss for Nifty traders.Volumes were very low. ROC 12 and Stochastics continue to show negative divergence.Dojis signal indecisiveness about further direction. In this case it shows doubts about continuation of the uptrend. Trading above the high of the doji is required to negate this view.Logically the upper trendline at 6485 should be tested, failing which a "return failure" would occur, increasing chances of the lower trendline being broken.

 Weekly Chart

Weekly charts show an "outside bar" pattern where the bar has a higher  high and a lower low showing loss of direction .The support of 6066 has been broken . The low of 5966 was however held well on Line charts which shows close values only.This keeps the short term uptrend intact.

The negative divergences are intact.

The fall from high of 6284 is in a flag formation shown on weekly chart II. This suggests a consolidation rather than distributuion as it is a bullish formation.

Weekly Chart II

Daily Chart

Daily charts too show a flag formation. The possibility of touching the lower end of the flag at 5870 is high.The long legged doji at support of 38.2% fibo level after a fall is however bullish. Breadth was very negative and volumes low. Neckline was broken intraday but was recovered fast enough.The selling showed nervous bulls rather than ferocious bears.The fact that a lower low on the line charts has not confirmed  the lower low on candle charts supports this view.

As stated in my earlier posts shorts to be attempted only on the break of 5350. Longs can be attempted on the flag breakout.Aggressive longs only on the scaling of 6284 high.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 29th October, 2010

 Daily Chart

Support once again at the 5967 levels. If it continues to hold then Nifty could resume the  rally. A break of support could give a fall upto5650. A short term lower high is already in place at 6151.A close below the short term low of 5966 will signal a sell for the short term. Activity within the falling wedge, shown in red, can take the Nifty down to 5858. Resistance will be at 6077.

The 38.2% fibo level of rise from 5350 is at 5926, 50% @ 5816 and 61.8% @ 5708. The 50 dema is at 5895. Watch if Nifty takes  support at any of these levels to consider a buy on dip strategy.


In case the uptrend continues longs can be initiated on a breakout from the falling wedge. Wait for a cross of the 6284 high to be crossed before going aggresively long.Shorts best avoided till the break of 5350.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 28th October, 2010

 

 Daily Chart

The shooting star and bearish engulfing pattern did it's job pulling down the Nifty further to 6012.Nifty has moved below all short term moving averages. Support from the 50 dema is at 5890. The fall has been on below average volumes which points at profit booking .

The 5966 level is crucial as it is the last swing low made on  20th October .5963 was the low made on 29th September. Joining these two points makes it a neckline of a bearish head and shoulder shown in green.Break of this level therefore , will accelerate the fall to 5650 being the target of this pattern.

Support now at  5966-5932-5867. Resistance at 6095.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 27th October, 2010

 Daily Chart

Bearish engulfing pattern after the shooting star of yesterday.Chances of testing the lower trendline of the downward sloping channel are high.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 26th October, 2010

 

 Daily Chart

Break out but not too convincing due to the  bearish looking candle.A double bottom at 5963 will be confirmed if  6284 is crossed.
Will be back with more TA by end of this week.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 25th October , 2010

                                                                                  

Daily Chart

Hi, Feels good to be back. Looks like the Nifty was waiting for me at the same spot ! Falling wedge makes it look bullish. More after I unpack and get a little rested.Girish , thanks for keeping the forum going.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 12th October , 2010

Daily Chart

 

Within the same range of 6067-6223.A break above the recent down trendline at 6176 would  see the Nifty testing the top of the range at 6223.A break below 6067 would see a test of support at 5963-5932.Till there is a decisive swing up or down markets will be volatile within the range 5932-6223.

Resistance is at 6150-6176-6223      Support is at 6101-6067-5963-5932.

Due to personal engagements will not be posting .Will be back on the 25th !!  Meanwhile,


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --11th October

 Daily Chart      

 

The S&P500 broke out   from the uptrendline of the red channel  as anticipated yesterday.This opens the possibility of a 30 point move which would be around 1194.The breakout from the neckline and from the green downtrendline from October highs is now confirmed with the breakout being maintained for a month and week respectively.

Resistance from the upper trendline of the rising wedge is at 1178.22. Support from the lower trendline is at 1151.

Supports are at  1157-1151-1138. Resistance 1174-1178-1185.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 11th October , 2010

 Weekly Chart

First black candle after five weeks of Bullishness.The volumes were low and higher high higher low maintained which keeps the uptrend intact. However, the candle being a near doji  flashes an alert of a possible change in sentiment.Nifty needs to sustain above 6134 to stay within the uptrendline  from 5349 lows.


 Daily Chart

Daily Chart shows a break below the uptrendline.However support has been taken around the previous high of 6073. A break of this support should take it staraight to 5932 with a possible support at 5963.Oscillators are moving down after showing negative divergence and Macd is now in sell mode.A fall below 5932 is required to to turn the short term bearish, and a fall below 5349 to turn the medium term bearish.


Supports are at  6045-6025-6008. Resistance at 6128-6148-6164.

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --8th October

 Daily Chart

Yesterday's candle was an outside day with a higher high and lower low.The red channel uptrendline seems to be proving good resistance.A breakout from this trendline could give a good move of around 30 points.

Supports at 1157-1151-1147  and     Resistance at 1164-1176




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 8th October , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Bears finally won but more due to lack of participation from the bulls  than due to sheer bear strength. In other words lack of buying rather than fierce selling.The uptrendline from 5349  is still held and now has resistance at 6142.

Supports are at 6093-6060-6040-5963. Resistance is at 6134-6152-6168-6180.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --7th October

 Daily Chart

Candlesticks speak out  and  today's doji at resistance shows hesitation at resistance. this does not augur well for the present trend which is up.  Oscillators are in negative divergence.

Breakout from the neckline and the green downtrendline is still held and  the "pushing down"  of the prices is not severe.This keeps the short term trend still UP.

Caution is the word at crossroads.

Supports are at    1157-1143-1135.            Resistance at 1163-1174.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 7th October, 2010

 Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

The Nifty posted the highest closing of the rally which started in March 2009. The target of 6185 shown on the line charts has been achieved. The next pattern target of the inverse head and shoulders shown in green is at 6745. When The breakout from this pattern gave the target , it seemed like a dream which would remain a dream . Now it seems achievable especially if the all time high closing of 6287.85 is crossed.

Yesterday's low of 6118 and the support on the uptrendline from 5349 at 6112 should be strong support. Breadth has been positive volumes low.Oscillators are in negative divergence.

Half Hourly Chart

The half hourly line chart shows a pennant forming which should normally break out on the upside.If succeedes then will give a move of  about 170 points.On candle charts it works out to be 245 points.

Look for oppurtunities to trade long till the 6112 support is broken decisively.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --6th October

 Daily Chart

Chart Showing Rising Wedge 

The S&P reverseddirection and shot up a surprising 24 points. Bulls were in full control and made a bullish breakout from the green trendline drawn from October 2007 highs. Support on this trendline is now at 1158.Bulls need to defend this support. The breakout though could not scale past the upper trendline of the rising channel shown in red. Resistance from this line is at 1162.A break above this would be encouraging to the bulls.

A rising wedge, bearish pattern,  spotted from the August lows. Resistance from this pattern is at 1171.56 and support at 1140.40. Daily oscillators are showing negative divergence adding credibility to the pattern.Till the lower trendline is held expect more upside.

Resistance at 1162.76-1171.56.  Supports are at 1158-1156- 1140.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 6th October , 2010

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Charts

A lower low and lower high candle following the shooting star makes the bias bearish.Today's action formed a bear flag and the prices broke down from it in the last hour. This indicates the fall may continue.The positive was that breadth was marginaly positive and volumes low. 

The support on the uptrending channel is now at 6082 which coincides with the 50% fibo retracement level of rise from 5932 to 6222.This makes it very strong support.

Resistance is at 6157-6188-6222.  Supports 6144-6115-6082.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --5th October

Daily Chart

As indicated by the rising wedge the S&P broke down and closed at 1137. The target on this breakout is 1106. The new trendline drawn in blue encompassing yesterday's low has support at 1133.The fibonacci levels shown in pink has strong support at 1131 , the 23.6% level which is also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders which is still holding well.A break below the 1133-1131 levels could see the target of 1106 being achieved with possible stoppage at 38.2 % level at1112.

Resistance is at 1144 and 1155.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 5th October, 2010

Daily Chart

Shooting star on daily charts shows bears were active. Breadth was marginally negative and volumes average.Bulls need to defend the support of 6057,the support from the lower trendline of the rising channel as a break below this trendline may lead to weakness. Resistance from the upper trendline is at 6277.

Supports are at 6133-6116-6090.  Resistance at  6222-6247-6277.

 

Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --4th October 2010

 Daily Chart

Trading was  within the rising wedge, keeping the push and pull act of the bulls and bears without a decisive result. Breakout point from the rising wedge and the green long term trendline from october 2007 highs is very close at 1159.65. A breakout would turn the scene bullish. This is a good possibility as the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders is holding well on corrections.

The rising wedge is supposed to be bearish and has support at  1141.60.

Wait for the breakout in either direction and trade accordingly.




Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty 4th October , 2010

 Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

A new high for this rally is now a habit. The steep rise though makes one uncomfortable. Have drawn trendlines on weekly as well as daily charts to get "Number Targets" which makes it easier to look forward to a move and to book partial profits.Positional longs can continue till a break of 5932.

Supports are at 6102-6073-6044-6020.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --1st October

 Daily Chart

Daily Chart II

The S & P 500 experienced a wide ranging day resisting exactly at the green trendline which is the downtrendline from october 2007 highs. After a strong advance, a wide-ranging day with a weak close signals a downside reversal. The close is also below the uptrendline from the lows of 1040. The recent action which formed an  ascending triangle, has now taken shape of a rising wedge which is also a bearish formation.

The support from the  wedge is at 1138.65 and resistance at 1158.80.


Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty Monthly and Quartely Update

 Quartely Chart

Bullish breakout from the rising channel.Volumes were low and have been falling since June 2009 quarter. Stochastics has reached overbought region and is flattening .6135 is a very strong resistance which is the highest close on the quarterly chart.


 Monthly Chart

Monthly charts look extremely bullish with a breakout from the rising channel which was an almost sideways movement with an upward bias for 15 months !  Volumes were just average and the Advance Decline line negative making one cautious on the breakout. ROC12 and Stochastics are in negative divergence.

I have redrawn the rising wedge which now has Resistance at 6385  and Support at 5592.
Enjoy the heady ride up till the break of the support at 5592.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 1st October, 2010

Daily Chart

Stuck within the range of 5932-6073. Volumes were average. Breadth continues to be negative.Buying at lower levels continues to slaughter the over enthusiastic bears.Remain long till a decisive break of the range low of 5932.

Resistance at 6058-6073-6116      Supports at 6000-5963-5932.



Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com