Reigning The Nifty - 1st December, 2009

Monthly Chart

Updating the monthly chart scenario discussed yesterday.  The range from 4538 to 5300 is a congestion zone and the Nifty has to clear this range for further direction. Maintaining above 4800 will be bullish and below that bearish. For this month breaking above 5078 will be positive.

Daily Line Chart

 

The daily chart scenario is best visible on line charts which I have been discussing since some time. I  am not elaborating on it since the depiction is clear and my words cannot add more to it. The OBV gives a bullish indication since it has not yet broken the uptrendline from March lows, wherea the Nifty has long done so.

Sensex Chart

Sensex shows the bullish move of  today  more vividly with the gap closed and a big bullish candle confirming the hammer like pattern of Friday.

However the levels of 5138-5182 needs to be scaled for one to be outright bullish. Meanwhile be cautiously long  with hedges/ stop losses.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 30th November, 2009

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

"Below 4909 the fall will gain momentum"  and Nifty did just that.  Slid 51% of the recent rise  to  4806 ever so easily. But,  found good support and did a U turn to recover 40% of the fall from 5091.Oscillators on daily and weekly have not shown much strength during the rally from 4538.This supports the view that the fall from 5182 may have  resumed.

The market is now in a  range between 5181-4538. A move beyond these points these points will give momentum to the market.

The short term trend is down till the gap shown on the sensex chart is filled and the recent top made at 17290/ 5138 is taken out.
Strong support on weekly charts at 4700.

Sensex Chart

Monthly Nifty Chart

Monthly charts show clearly that the downtrendline form January lows is proving strong resistance. Also the uptrendline from March lows has been broken. The range between 4538-5182 has been held for 3 months in a row. Breakout from this range can give a up or down move of around 600 points.

Upsides if trades above 5011

Downsides if trades below 4863

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 27th November, 2009

Half Hourly Chart

 

Daily Chart

Daily Line Chart

Nifty retraced below lows of the last three days , after hitting resistance at the trendline drawn from January 2008 highs. Negative divergences on half hourly charts did the job of getting Nifty to correct to the 23.6% retracement level of rise from 4538 to 5138.

A close below 4989 will be first sign of possible trend change. Next strong support is at 4924-4932  which has acted as support and resistance ever so often in the last 2 months.  4909 is the 38.2% retracement level . Below these levels down move will gain momentum.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 26th November, 2009

 Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

No change in daily technicals . Negative divergence seen in oscillators on half hourly charts too. Targets 5120-5145-5172-5182

Support 5050

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 25th November, 2009

Daily Chart

No change in technicals . Resistance remains at 5118-5120. Support  at 5050. break on either side should give a move of around 60 points.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 24th November , 2009

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Scaling 5080 seemed a cakewalk. but volumes were very low. half hourly charts show the Nifty is in uptrend till  a lower high lower low is established.  On daily charts we need to scale 5182. 5120 may prove strong resistance.All levels marked on charts. Targets 5145-5172-5182. Keep stops on longs as per your risk taking capacity.

Daily Line Chart

4989 as shown on Line chart should be a good stop loss on closing basis.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 23rd November, 2009

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Weekly Charts

It was a bullish week with a higher high  higher low and a close above the previous week's close. Volumes were average. The weekly oscillators though are not really rosy enough to be all out bullish .Macd is still in sell mode and negative divergences in rsi14 and stochastics persist. Recovery of  more than 80 % of  fall  from 5182 to 4538 is encouraging  for further upsides.

 Daily Chart

 A bullish engulfing candle seen on daily charts which is more clearly visible on the sensex chart.

Sensex Daily Chart

The  bullish engulfing candle, which, though appears bullish could be a signal that the trend is about to end as the last of the herd may be buying from the smart traders who are selling. "A big bullish Engulfing pattern observed at the top of a trend usually represents the last gasp of the trend."  

Since we have bearish indications like break of the uptrendline of the rise, breakdown from the recent rising wedge shown in red and the rising wedge which i have been showing on line charts, it would be wise to wait for tomorrow's action and a close above previous high of 5182, which would confirm whether it is the last gasp or a fresh breath of air. 

The daily oscillators too have the negative divergences intact . Macd is in buy mode and stochastics has started correcting the overbought condition.

Caution on longs is advisable till crossing of previous high of 5182 which is most clearly understandable looking at the daily line chart.

Daily Line Chart

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Daily Chart

Big bearish candle giving a decisive break from the rising wedge and rising channel. 4950-4924 levels should give good support. Break will take to 4875-4860 levels.

 
Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 19th November, 2009

 Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Sideways movement within a 40 point range forming a doji  second day in a row. Moved below  rising channel in half hourly charts. Must trade above 5062 for further rise.Else could test 5010 again. Break of this level  will give momentum to the downmove.

Line charts shows direction is clearly down till high of 5142 is taken out.So be cautious on your long positions.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 18th November , 2009

Daily Chart

Sideways movement forming a doji  on low volumes which was expected due to negative divergence as mentioned yesterday. The rising channel is intact and so is the rising wedge shown in red. Not much change in oscillators too compared to yesterday.

Half Hourly Chart

Trade long cautiously for the earlier mentioned targets shown on charts.If fails to cross today's high then could result in further sideways move . If breaks down from channel then a downmove could ensue.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 17th November, 2009

 Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Bull candle on average volumes. Held on to the gains made on opening  the entire day,with minor corrections.  The daily stochastics is in sell above the 80 level and has shown a minor negative divergence..Macd though has moved above the zero line and is in buy mode and Rsi14 is showing strength.

Amongst the half hourly oscillators all have shown negative divergence  indicating that the there are chances of a small correction.Remember that we can only be mildly bullish till the highs of 5182 is scaled, nicely depicted on the daily line chart.

Be cautiously long. for targets of 5094-5145.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 16th November, 2009

The week ended with a bull candle on avearage volumes, confirming the low, 4538,  of the "near" hammer pattern of last week as solid support. Among the weekly oscillators the Rsi 14  is  showing strength by moving up without touchinh the 50 level. The stochastic too has moved up and given a buy without reaching the oversold region.The Macd which is more of a lag indicator is still in sell.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

 The daily charts show resistance at 5018 levels. Crossing this will take it to 5140 -5145 which is the target of the inverted head and shoulder pattern mentioned in earlier posts.This coincides with the resistance at 5140 from  down trendline from January highs.Among the oscillators the daily macd is in buy, Rsi14 is moving up above the 50 line and stochastics is in overbought  region.


Only a break above 5182 or  below 4538 can decide further direction. So one should trade in the direction of the short term  trend which is up and trade with caution till the high of 5182 is taken out..Holding the 4900 levels are once again crucial for the upmove to continue.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 13th November, 2009

 Daily Line Chart

Correction of recent rise started. A lower top may have been made at 5016 . Fibo levels are marked on the chart. The 5,10,20 & 50 ema are converging around the 4840-4910 levels . The 38.2% retracement level too is at 4835. This should be good support.

Weekly support at 4592


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 12th November, 2009

Huge bullish candle on ok volumes.  The support of 4830 has held well. In fact the Nifty did a U turn from 4860 and went up without any mentionable corrections.The target now is 5145 of the inverse head and shoulders which I have been mentioning since a few days.The move from 4538 is within an upward sloping channel. .All half hourly oscillators are in the oversold zone. So look for resistance from this channel is at 5036-5080

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Line Chart

The rising wedge target of  3850  is valid till the top of 5150 is taken out on a closing basis.

 

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 11th November

Reaction day after crossing the 61.8% retracement level slightly forming a doji. Higher bottom higher top candle continues . The neckline of the inverse head and shoulders at 4830 held. This level is strong support as we have the confluence of the 5,10 & 50 dema at 4830.

Daily Chart

Daily stochastics is in overbought region and the Rsi14 is waning above the 50 level.The support on downtrendline from which Nifty broke out is at 4750.

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Magnified action on the half hourly charts shows a breakdown from a rising wedge with a target of 4578. If support at 4830 mentioned above , which is also the neckline support of the inverse head and shoulders, is broken , we may head towards this target. If  breaks above today's high of 4948 we head towards the inverse head and shoulders target of 5145.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 10th November

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Line Chart

Daily Chart

Big Bull candle on low volumes.  Daily oscillators are showing strength and the Rsi 14 has moved above the 50 mark. The intraday charts showed breakout from an inverse head and shoulder pattern giving a target of 5145.

The 61.8% level of retracement at 4925 will be strong resistance. This was also the level of solid support on the way down.  The Nifty may see a pullback from those levels. If  surpasses 4925  OR on a pullback finds support at 4830 levels then one could go long for targets of the inverse head and shoulders of 5145.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty --9th November 2009

 Daily Line Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Oscillators have turned up from oversold zone indicating some more upside.Half  hourly charts show a higher low  and  a higher high. Till this trend is reversed and so long as 4560 holds we have a sideways market with an  upward bias.

Resistances and Supports marked on charts.

Stop loss for shorts 4925  Stop loss for longs 4560. In short, between these two levels it is whipsaw time.

Volatility is high so trade safe and with stop losses in place.I would remain neutral till further evidence of direction is available.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - Week ended 6th November 2009

 Weekly Chart

 

The week finally ended favouring the bulls as buying support came in at 4530 and closed above the inverse head and shoulder neckline band of 4650-4700. However the lower top lower bottom since last week continues. Oscillators have started moving up after moving below July lows.

A well formed rising wedge is now seen. Just to refresh memory,  Wedges are longer-term patterns, often witnessed on weekly charts. They can be powerful continuation or reversal patterns. A strong preceding trend makes a stronger signal.A rising wedge is formed by higher highs and higher lows. A bearish signal, the pattern is normally a continuation signal in a down-trend but acts as a reversal signal when encountered in an up-trend.(courtesy Incredible Charts)

Support is at 4592. So long as this support is not broken, we have a sideways to up market.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 6th November, 2009

The Bulls took advantage of the silver lining  and managed to outdo the bears to close above the high of the inside day pattern on good volumes. The obv on daily charts has shown a positive divergence.The short term trend  is up with a stop loss of 4610.

Daily Chart With OBV

Daily oscillators show more room for upsides. The half hourly oscillators too are moving up after showing positive divergence.Nifty has moved above the 50 period ema on half hourly charts and the next logical levels is 200 period ema which is at 4870. This coincides with the minor top made on 28th October at 4867.The 50% retracement of fall from 5182 to 4538 is at 4860. So the 4860-4870 level could be strong resistance.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 5th November, 2009

 The silver lining gleamed and we had a huge pullback on good volumes. The candle however formed an "Inside day" pattern, indicating indecision. Look for the definition mentioned in my earlier posts. Break of the previous day's high or low will set the direction of the  trend.

Daily Chart

 Daily oscillators are just about moving out of the oversold region , increasing the possibility of some more upside.Resistance on the downtrendline from high of 5182 is at 4777 which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of fall till 4538  at 4780. If this is overcome then we can expect more upsides . Else a resumption of the fall.


Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 4th November, 2009

 Bulls have gone into hiding and bears are having a free play ground. Nifty closed below 3rd September lows but OBV yet to go below it's respective low.Silver lining.

Daily Line Chart

 All daily oscillators oversold.  Around the 4550 level  is 50% retracement level of rise from 3918 and 23.6% retracement level of rise from 2539. The Nifty touched 4538 levels today and closed at 4564.Watch and wait for signals of fall abating. Till then the bears can keep a trailing stop loss to protect their profits and the bulls can turn bears after a bounce.




Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Nifty - 3rd November, 2009

The  range of  5182  to  4921 broke down early in the week giving a move of 260 points  and reluctantly stopped at 4687 almost close to its target of  4660. The 4660 level should be good support as there is a confluence of supports around this level of 4660- 4700.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

 

Daily Line Chart

• 38.2% retracement of rise from 3918 to 5182  @  4699
• target of range break from 5182-4921 is 4660
  
• .Neckline of inverse head and shoulders  @  4655 to 4706 (have made this range as shoulders are a little uneven.
  
• 61.8% retracement of rise from 4353 to 5182  @  4669
• Daily line chart shows important support on ;ower trendline of rising wedge at 4665
  

Oscillators are oversold on daily charts and a bounce is due. Weekly oscillators have moved down from  overbought territory. The weekly Rsi14 has broken low made in July . Corresponding low of Nifty is 3918.Weekly Macd has given a sell.

The trend is now down and  the strategy should be to sell the rallies from now on.




Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com