Reigning The Nifty 16th November 2012

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty made an Island Reversal pattern.This pattern occurs when prices gap up when in a strong uptrend - like the one we had from June lows- and then gaps down again on the way down.This leaves certain candles in an "island" as can be seen on the daily chart above the two elipse.This is a strong reversal signal and the signal is stronger if the  island  is formed by several bars rather than one which is the case with Nifty.Till recovery signals are seen the Nifty will therefore remain bearish.

The half hourly chart shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern with neckline breached giving a target of 5560.This is close to the low of 5583 and the support line drawn through lows made since the top of 5814.5567 is the 23.6% retracement of the rise from 4770 to 5814.This should prove a strong support.If breaks then the Nifty would have made a lower high and lower low sequence turning the trend down.

Supports are at 5603-5583-5540. Resistance is at gap of 5650-5668,  5698-5710

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 16th November 2012

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Bank Nifty broke down from the rising wedge as per it's characteristic.Support taken around the 11422 level which is the 50% retracement level of the rise from 11125 to 11745 high as can be clearly seen on the half hourly chart.The pullback  was nearly closed the gap down made on open. The pullback though seems to be a retest of the support line from which it broke down having failed to close above it.

If the support  at 11452-11481 is held then the pullback will continue.Else the fall may continue to test the gap area at 11394-11315 where the 61.8% level too resides at 11352.If this strong support area breaks then the 11125 low will come into focus.

Resistance is at 11565-11608-11719

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 16th November 2012

Daily Chart 

 A spinning top was formed on daily charts. Spinning tops are candles  having a small body with upper and lower shadows longer than the length of the body. Spinning tops signal indecision.Having reached the 61.8% retracement level such an indecision could indicate a bounce which would be a good oppurtunity to sell into.

 
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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 15th November 2012

 

 

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty still meanders in the 5815-5583 range. A rising wedge has been pointed out in black on daily chart II.The support line is shared with the uptrendline from 5217 lows.The daily made a doji candle on Monday, which took support on this trendline.This makes this trendline important level to be held, which has been broken in the Diwali Mahurat session yesterday.The breakout should have a target of 5480.

The half hourly charts show efforts to stabilise at the 5666 level after encroaching into the gap area partially.If this support at the gap area 5666-5645 fails retest of the 5583 is on the cards.

Supports are at 5666-5645-5615  Resistance at 5680-5710-5752.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 15th November 2012

Half Hourly Chart

 

Rising wedge seen forming on daily charts which is a bearish formation.It shows that the trading range is getting narrower which will finally lead to a  break down.The rising wedge occuring at highs is a bearish reversal pattern.
The half hourly chart shows another rising wedge depicted well in red.This gives support to the bearish bias of the daily charts.Also increases possibility of the trading range which we have been experiencing since six weeks  resolving on the bearish side.If the upmove from 11427 continues then we could expect a higher high than 11719 which will be the third touch point of the rising wedge.Level for tomorrow at the resistance line is at 11748.Support line is at 11545.

Taking a narrower look at the chart an "Inside Day" pattern occured once again on daily charts ! The Mahurat session too stayed within that range. This shows indecision and we once again watch whether the high of the Inside Day  at 11664 breaks first taking the Bank Nifty higher or lower if the low at 11427 breaks.
If the low breaks it will be a break out from the smaller &  larger rising wedge as well as the uptrendline from 9814  and the Bank Nifty could make a move down of 600 points.

With the weekly charts starting to show bearish candlesticks and the daily charts throwing up bearish patterns one needs to get fairly cautious on longs. 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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