There can be humor in distressing times

What I read this morning : Ajit Dayal's article

An interesting news item in Business Standard: the government wants to create a symbol for the Indian currency, the Rupee.
Just like the US dollar has "$"; the pound sterling has "£"; the Euro has "€"; and the Japanese yen has "¥".
Apparently, India wants its own symbol for its currency because of India’s growing influence in the global economy. Also, the present abbreviation of the Indian Rupee is "Rs" and this is shared by those less important countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Seychelles. "Which government in their right mind would wish to be associated with these banana countries? Certainly not Incredible India!" is probably the underlying theme emanating from the government here.

In this age of doom and gloom I am glad to know that there is still someone in the halls of power who is thinking long term strategy here.
I mean, why waste time over coming out with a real stimulus package to kick-start the economy and make India stronger? Focusing on a symbol is the really hard work that needs to be done.
Why spend the five minutes it would take to prepare a statement that - even though election contributions in sacks of soiled notes are welcome from the real estate developers - the government has decided to allow the real estate developers to drown in their own overpriced and overbuilt land banks?
Why spend energy on announcing the results of the now-forgotten Raigad referendum against the Reliance SEZ - and admit that the SEZ policy in general was nothing but an act of piracy that would make the famed Somali pirates proud?
Hey, dumbo! India is a growing economic superpower and we need a symbol for our currency to, well, symbolise that. So, loosen up! And let’s get to work!
Symbols ‘symbolise’Symbols represent the ethos and culture of whatever they are supposed to symbolise. Sometimes the true meaning of the symbol only dawns on you much, much later.
For example, the US Dollar has the ‘$’.
For years I wondered what this symbol meant. Today it is crystal clear. The ‘S’ in the ‘$’ represents the "snake" - something you cannot trust. Something slippery. The two vertical lines from top to bottom represent a negation, the cancellation, and a strike off. In case you had faith in a snake, buster, and here are the 2 lines to cancel any trust you had. So the ‘$’ represents a currency you cannot trust!
It took the Chinese 20 years of slave labour to find that out. Now it has dawned on them that the trillions of ‘$’ currency notes they have are not really worth much. Hence, they are busy buying gold, oil, and raw materials with their excessive stash of US currency.
And whatever left over currency they have, they have given it to the Clinton Foundation. They refused to pay the DHL costs to send all those notes across. So Secretary of State Clinton flew down to pick it up. For obvious reasons this did not make the CNN Breaking News. The CNN reporters were too busy telling the world that China is a superpower and Clinton dropped by to beg China to stop bashing the currency - but bashing people was acceptable.
The Indian government, meanwhile, is using its stash of currency to proclaim to the world that we are a superpower. Slumdog won the Oscars. In the real world those who control the media are the true winners. And Bollywood has conquered Hollywood. Never mind that it took a jump into a pile of dunk to win over the hearts of the critics and the audience. Hey, we tried to appeal to the nicer side of humanity with "Gandhi" in 1983 but the world has changed - and we must change with the times.
Goodness is for the textbooks, while "badness" is what real life is all about. Ask those "Bummed-out Billionaires" - the titans of Wall Street and the CEOs. They cleaned out big time with their "badness" - and they get to keep their loot! The Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Indians, Saudis hold monopoly paper - the ‘$’. And we are paying security guards money to guard it.
The Americans are having the last laugh for sure. Their newspapers are full of articles of people losing jobs and money. Actually, this was a conspiracy. The CPI-(M) is about to release an election manifesto based on this: the American capitalists are enjoying a vacation (disguised as unemployment) paid for by the decades of slave labour of the labour class in China. Their Zionist allies in Israel are using rockets on the proletariat in Gaza to celebrate the victory of capitalism.
The Indian symbolBut this is serious stuff now.Bigger than Shilpa Shetty being an icon for cricket.Bigger than Big Brother and Indian Idol combined.
India needs a symbol for its currency.A symbol that typifies India and our "Indian-ness".
The catch in the symbol selection process, though, is that it needs to be replicable on a computer keyboard with a few quick strokes.
So that rules out a sack filled up with soiled notes. Much as that symbolises India, how do you capture that on a computer keyboard? An Indian invented "zero" but we forgot to invent the keyboard with the sack as a stroke-key.
We could choose "B" to show that Big Business dominates India’s economic policy making. But that would give the Birla’s the feeling that the "B" represented their power. And that would be unacceptable to all the other families. (As an aside - ever wonder why the mafia, drug cartels, and governments are all controlled by "families"? They don’t say groups, they say "families". Maybe it is the tradition of passing control from one generation to the next - within the same family. Like in the Congress Party?)
So, if "B" is out. How about "A"? No, then we need to have too many letters to explain which branch of the "A" we are referring to. Complicated, hence disqualified. Just as with "R" - you need to again specify which branch of the "R". You can merge companies and businesses to hide rumoured losses on oil futures but how do you tell one R from another R? Ah, how we yearn for simplicity and transparency.
That emotion ruled out "S" - it is simple but it also stands for Satyam - and we know how that ended up. More silence and more cover ups.
"T" for Tata is not an option because they don’t control anything. They were unable to control a personal desire to buy into a failing global junk car business so where is the question of controlling India?
The CPI-M would nominate "M" for Marxists. But that would then give the impression that the Zionist "M" for Multinational is ruling India. So there is a conflict there because it is the CPI-M that has ensured that India remain backward.
To be fair to them, they had initially suggested "C" to indicate that their masters in China controlled India because of the veto votes of the CPI-M in this exiting UPA coalition. But the Chinese refused - "who wants to be associated with a banana republic?" they asked.
Another option was "O". It is the circle of life - of birth and death and re-birth. It also represents the sum of the sincerity of our politicians which is "zero" and the "O" captures that. The "oh" captures amazement and shock - and India does elicit these emotions. If you add the small "m" after that, we get "Om" the sacred chant. And therein lies the problem.
The BJP had nominated "Om" but the fear of the Muslim back lash and the loss of the Muslim vote resulted in dropping this symbol of "shantih". The fact that the Middle East sent a strongly worded message that they would not sell oil to any country that had its currency as a religious weapon did not help. Remember these were the same folks who had threatened to stop pricing their oil in the snake-like ‘$’. Luckily for them they did not price in Euro - they would have got 20% less for their oil than they are now getting.
So, we are back to square 1 - but not to alphabet "A".
We still need a currency symbol that captures the ethos of India. And can be replicated on a computer keyboard.
And the winner is...So, I nominate "Z".I confess we do own shares in Zee TV for clients but that is not the reason.Z represents the sound of sleeping "zzz".What Indian politicians have done for decades.
Z also represents the emotion that is stirred when we hear our politicians speak. They will tell us what a great country India is and how we must carve out our rightful space in history. Meanwhile, they are carving out their rightful share of some shady deal.
Z also represents the most important agenda item on every politician’s list: how to secure a "Z" level of security assignment for their sacred bodies and for their families.
And Z stands for a person who is unable to stand up for anything. Like an "S" he is crooked, and bends easily.
And Z can also be seen as a palm on top of a table and a palm underneath the table and the diagonal line that connects them is the wire transfer to the UBS Bank account.
On the computer keyboard, the "Z" is near the shift button to show the "shifty" nature of this alphabet.
And Z also represents what can happen to a country if it is run by selfish, tin-pot politicians. We end up like Zimbabwe and a currency like the ZAR. Worthless.
But there is a certain positive finality about "Z".It is the ending of a sequence. It is the sign that enough is enough. We won’t take this nonsense anymore. And come April and May we will show you what we mean. It has boldness to it. A definite response, the last word. So, let’s use it - and use it well.
So, there it is: my vote and nomination is for a ‘Z".
As an aside...The Business Standard article went on to say that "The winning entry for the rupee symbol carries a prize of Rs 2.5 lakh but its designer would have to surrender the copyright to the government."
What will I do with my winning prize money?Invest in the Indian stock market - and in gold.And that is final.Z.


Note: The Honest Truth is authored by Ajit Dayal. Ajit is a Director at Quantum Advisors Pvt Ltd and Quantum Asset Management Company Pvt Ltd.. Views expressed in this article are entirely those of the author and may not be regarded as views of the Quantum Mutual Fund or Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited.

Technicals for 5th march 2009

Daily Nifty Chart

Though there was an attempt, the nifty has not been able to cross even the 23.6% retracement level of fall from 2806. Positive is , yesterday's lows held and held well throughout the day. The break from the triangle is into it's third day, confirming it's validity. On the pullback resistances are at 2658-2686-2709-2732 being the fibonacci retracement levels. Strong support is at 2572 and 2502. if these levels are held then we may see retest of the upward sloping trendline of the triangle.

The 84 period SMA which I have been following for ascertaining the long term trend , has been rising since last two days after continuously falling since february 2008 !!. Will keep an eye for a change of trend.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran

www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Bears enjoy the slide

Daily Nifty Futures chart

Yes I have been a bear since 2nd March, 10-30am, and though some anxious hours had to be passed due to the ranging trade for most of both yesterday and today , sticking to technical analysis sure paid off. Inspite of the ranging with a slightly upward bias till 2pm, I was confident the slide had to come, as nifty could just about rally above yesterdays close. However, to be on the safe side, I brought down my stop loss to 2700 (spot level) . This way I would breakeven or just about make money to take care of the transaction costs in case I got stopped out. But the enjoyable slide came. Booked profits in 25 % of my positions 15 minutes before close.




The nifty moved very much like yesterday , moving in a small range for most part of the day and then a fall in the last hour. Technical targets remain the same as shown yesterday. The stop loss for shorts can be brought down to 2700 from stop loss levels for tuesday at 2800.




Todays chart is the daily nifty futures chart which shows that the triangle pattern has conformed to the volume pattern too. Volumes should fall as the price moves towards apex point of the triangle and the downtrending line on the volumes shows just that.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi

www.vipreetsafetrading.com

What now?

Half hourly chart

The nifty opened down 80 points leaving positional longs breathless. We should consider this as a gap opening at 2677-83 though NSE shows the opening to be almost same as yesterdays close. The gap could not be closed throughout the day's trade. There were not many oppurtunities intra day as the movement was between 2706 and 2690 -- just 16 points !! -- for most part of the 5 1/2 hours, thoroughly frustrating traders . The support of 2677 -- the bottom made last week held till the last 15 minutes of trade giving hopes to the bulls of a last minute pullback. It was only in the last 15 minutes that the support gave way stopping at 2659, almost at next support of 2661. Tomorrow this support too should give way as the trading today suggested bears were more powerful.

Now for the technicals--
If the support of 2661 holds we may see a pullback to 2730 levels which is the 50% retracement level of fall frm 2798 as well as earlier support level which held for all of last week.I dont ezpect more as conditions are really bearish

The half hourly chart shows another head and shoulders bearish pattern forming, with a downward sloping neckline. This will come into play if the neckline at 2645-2649 breaks giving us a downward target of (2970-2705=265 points) from the neckline which should be around 2650-265=2385.

The larger pattern -- symmetrical triangle forming since October 2008 lows has been broken giving a downward move of about 750 points to a possible low of 1995 to 2000.

So one can be safely short with a stop loss at 2800 -2806 which is the last minor peak made on 18th feb,2009 and is the high of the right shoulder .

Happy trading !!

Lakshmi
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

A Little More Insight

Symmetrical triangle spotted in the action over last seven days. In my obsession of heads and shoulders patterns almost overlooked it. Confirms confusion/tug of war between bulls and bears. Prompts me to make a deeper study from text books about symmetrical triangles. Will get back soon with it.

Lakshmi
vipreetsafetrading.com