S&P 500 update --28th February 2011

Weekly Chart

Redrawing the upper trendline from the high made in July 2008 rather than from the high made in January 2009 as it  shows the technical reason for the pullback.The trendline from January 2009 highs shows more room for a rise upto 1400. Will put that up in case the bulls continue the ride up taking out resistance at 1343.The pullback rested exactly on the uptrendline drawn from March 2010 lows.Support on this trendline is at 1305.50 for this week.

Daily Chart

A bullish morning star formation on daily charts conforming perfectly to the characteristics of the pattern.

• The first candle is a black candlestick  within a defined downtrend (very short term downtrend in case of S&P 500).
• The second candle has a small  real body  (either black or white) that closes below the first black candle.
• The third is a large white candle that opens above the previous candle and closes at least near the middle of the first candle's  real body.
• The third candle on very high volumes makes it more bullish. 

Longs could keep a strict stop loss of the pattern's low , 1294.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 28th February 2011

 Weekly Chart

Weekly charts show indecision as the Nifty struggles to break out of the equilateral triangle shown in green.Breakout points are at 5455 and 5255. Support at 5085 and Resistance at 5580 in case of breakout.

Daily Chart

Same boring old chart showing retracements with a few inputs on the latest action. Nifty seems to be moving in an upward slanting channel. The support on this channel is at 5240 and resistance at 6623. 200 dema at 6606.Other supports and resistance marked on charts.

Half Hourly Chart

The rising wedge target of  5136 will be reached if the Nifty is not able to break out of the falling wedge formed on the way down from the rising wedge
.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 28th February 2011

Weekly Chart

Weekly Line Chart

Unable to sustain above the previous peak of 11256 though managed to break out intraday. As shown on the weekly line chart the bottom of 11386 held till now. This makes it an important level to watch.Rsi14 (>50  &  < 50 )  and Macd ( >0  &  <0 ) are good indicators showing strength and weakness.Till the Rsi 14 moves > 50 and Macd move >0 expect weakness to continue.

Daily Chart

The falling wedge on daily charts shown last week proved a false breakout.  The inverse head and shoulder may still be valid though the right shoulder has become disproportionately longer. Neckline now at 11311.

Support levels on break of 10017 marked on charts. 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --25th February 2011

 Daily Chart

 Break below uptrendline was only intraday. Enough bull strength to keep bears from breaking it end of day.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 25th February 2011

 Daily Chart

With the bullish possibilities vanishing on huge volumes and bad breadth,  posting the same chart once again. Levels marked

Half Hourly Chart

 Rising wedge target of 5136 approaching fast.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 25th February 2011

 Daily Chart

A false breakout once again opening up a bearish possibility of  a double top with midpoint at 10017.  A break of this point can trigger a fall to 9000 or lower.Today's fall was on huge volumes. Important supports marked



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --24th February 2011

Daily Chart

Taken support on the uptrendline. Support today at 1301.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --21st February 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Higher highs continue.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 21st February 2011

 Weekly Chart

Breakout from the downtrendline which is bullish.Reacting from previous peak resistance at 11256 and 38.2% retracement level  of fall from 13304 makes the  bullishness suspect. Trading above 10700 should keep the bullish prospects  intact.

Daily Chart

Breakout from the falling wedge is intact with a target of 12620.An inverted head and shoulder could be forming with the neckline around 11302. Bank Nifty has moved above the 200 dema and maintained above it for four days. Only a move below it will attract increased selling.The bearish engulfing pattern may do it's damage if falls below the three day low of 10908 and test the 200 dema at 10860. 


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 21st February 2011

Weekly Chart

It is really amazing and  wonderful how trendlines work as support and resistance. The Nifty hit resistance exactly  at the red trendline and was back below the key resistance of 5556. The red trendline has resistance at 5587 for the coming week. As shown in my post of 18th Feb, the 5549-5556 level has been resistance way too many times and break above it has been hard to sustain.

Weekly Chart II

Falling wedge on weekly charts gets confirmed if there is a break and close above 5504.This would have bullish implications.Support at 5085.

Daily Chart

Getting tired of posting this chart showing retracement  levels.Waiting for a breakout from the falling wedge shown on weekly and from the inverted head and shoulder forming on daily with neckline at 5604 for Monday, to get rid of this chart.

Inverse Head and Shoulder forming clearly visible on half hourly charts

The bearish engulfing candle on high volumes and extremely bad breadth promises more downside though. Bears guarding the 200 dema at 5617 too threatens the bulls . Till these levels of 5604 and 5617 are conquered one is better off in the bear camp.

Half Hourly Chart

Flag breakout target of 5606 was nearly reached  and  set in a reaction. Nifty broke the rising wedge   and gave in very easily to the bears to record a fall of  157 points from the high of 5599.Target for the rising wedge is 5136.

Half Hourly Chart 

5340 is strong support --  it is the 61.8% fibo level as well as the support level for the gap formed while breaking out from the falling wedge on 14th February.


Supports are at 5440-5390-5340.  Resistance at 5509-5549-5599.

Attending a marraige at  Chennai. My next post on Friday  25th. Meanwhile,


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

S&P 500 update --18th February 2011

 Daily Chart

Still on a "High"

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 18th February 2011

Daily Chart

 Daily Line Chart

Bullish flag mentioned yesterday broke out  as anticipated  and resisted at the red trendline as shown on daily candle charts. .The 20 dema too was scaled . This raises hopes of the previous peak of 5556 may be conquered by tomorrow and turn the Nifty bullish in the short term. The daily charts have turned bullish with this peak being scaled today.

The 20 dema has support at 5501 and the 200 dema resistance at 5618.

Half Hourly Chart

A bearish rising wedge formed . The support line is at 5535-5610 for the day. Break below this line could lead to some retracement. Supports are at 5465-5409-5364-5320.  Resistance from the neckline of the bearish head and shoulder is at 5680.Other resistance is at 5556-5618.

Weekly Chart

                                                5545-5556 strong resistsance shown in elipse

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 18th February 2011

 Daily Chart

A bullish followup after yesterday's pause. Volumes were marginally better than yesterday. The journey to 11257 seems really fast. The fall from that level took12 days  but 95% recovered in 5 days! Scaling 11257 will be bullish.

Resistance at 11257-11662  Suppport at  10925-10860 (200 dema)-10750.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --17th February 2011

 Daily Chart

S&P 500 seems to be on a "high". Negative divergences  persist and yesterday's move to 1336 was on extremely low volumes. Be ready to nurse the hangover when it ends.

Resistance at 1337-1348  and Supports at 1330-1311. 



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Nifty - 17th February 2011

 Daily Chart

 The real body of the last two day's candles are identical.The high  remained a fraction lower but  the low was much higher indicating bears on the back foot for the time being.This qualifies as an Inside day. Further trend will be set by break of the high or low of the previous day's candle which are 5506.50 and 5408.35.

The 5 and 10 dema got bullishly aligned. The 20 dema is providing resistance since the last two days and is at 5496 for tomorrow.

Half Hourly Chart

Nifty seems to be catching up it's breath with a sideways movement in a flag like formation.This is a continuation pattern .So expect a break on the upside.As is visible the upmove has been rapid.If  the fall from 5556 could be retraced at a faster rate  by Friday 18th, then the targets of the falling wedge would be achievable.

Resistance at 5506-5556. Support at 5460-5408.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning the Bank Nifty - 17th February 2011

Bank Nifty

An "Inside Day". Further trend will be decided on break of the high or low of the previous day's candle which is at  11035-10722.

Support of the 200dema at 10857.




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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 update --16th February 2011

 Daily Chart

First blip . Support at 1329-1311   Reistance at 1335-1348.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 16th February 2011

Daily Chart

Today's candle made a breakout from the downtrending line but it was not too impressive as it formed a spinning top.Volumes were low and breadth marginally positive. However, buying support coming even before Nifty  reached the  38.2% retracement level of the rise from 5177 is encouraging. Daily oscillators are moving up strongly.Daily EMAs are still bearishly aligned indicating the rally is corrrective in nature.

Half Hourly Chart

Intraday oscillators showed negative divergence and the Nifty is now reacting to it. The uptrendline from 5177 lows has been broken. The trend following indicators though are bullish with the 5,10,20 and 50 ema bullishly aligned. The 5 and 10 ema are bullishly aligned with the 200 ema.This indicates the correction from 5506  taking place would be that of  the 329 point run up rather than a resumption of the larger time frame downtrend.

Resistance is at 5506-5556-5585  and Supports at 5456-5430-5381.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 16th February 2011

 Daily Chart

 Followup buying  with a breaout above the downtrending line from highs of 13304. This is bullish.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 Update 15th February 2011

 Daily Chart

 Broken above the resistance line of the rising wedge. Resistance at 1342-1347  and  Supports at 1331-1325



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 15th February 2011

Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

Nifty rallied as anticipated , opening with a gap which was left unfilled.This is bullish. Break out from the falling wedge shown on half hourly chart gives a target of 5965.  Bearish signals are being ignored.See the half hourly chart below.The shooting star appeared around the 23.6% resistance level but after faltering a bit continued to run up.This indicates the rally may continue.

Half Hourly Chart at 13-30 pm

Resistance at 5556-5562  - 5681 - 5801.  Support  at  5416-5396-5355-5319-5285.
This is a counter trend rally on low volumes. Trade light and hedged. 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 15th February 2011

 Daily Chart

Bullish follow up candle , but on low volumes. The breakout from the falling wedge gives a target of 12615.Resistances on the way up are many and marked on the chart.Supports at 10652-10510-10415.

Counter trend rallies need to be traded carefully.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 Update 14th February 2011

Weekly Chart

 Daily Chart

 Uptrend intact till the uptrendline is violated.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty - 14th February 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

• Some buying support was seen on the last day of the week as nifty drifted down near the support line joining bottoms from November 2009 and nearly achieved the target,5165, of the pink head and shoulder shown on half hourly charts on 10th Feb,2011.Support on this line is at 5160 for the coming week.
• Volumes were high indicating capitualtion? The volumes on  bearish days last week were low compared to the days on which spinning tops ( which show that the downward momentum may be waning) and the bullish engulfing candle was formed.This indicates a change in bearish sentiment may be round the corner. 
• Falls are progressively getting smaller as  pointed out in the half hourly chart. My crude way of looking at waves --I do not know elliot wave but hope to, soon.
• The daily candle is a bullish engulfing candle which has bullish implications.
• Break of 5160 support will take Nifty to 4786-4735-4700 ( supports shown in my earlier charts).
• First sign of bullishness would be breaking resistance of downtrendline at 5352-5318, shown on half hourly charts.
  

Reminder : Trend down as clearly depicted by the half hourly chart below. Signs of reversal should be used to pare short positions rather than go aggressively long till a higher high and higher low is formed.



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 14th February 2011

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

• Last week's gravestone doji followed by this week's bullish hammer at the same levels cementing strong support.
• Formation of falling wedge shown in red on daily charts.
• Bullish engulfing candle on daily charts.
• Positive divergence seen on daily oscillators.

Reminder : Trend is down and recovery signals should be used to pare  short positions rather than go aggressively long.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P 500 Update 11th February 2011

Daily Chart

Pullback continues with a lower high and lower low . Resistance at 1325-1328  and Support at 1310.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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