Reigning The Bank Nifty Weekly and Monthly Analysis as on 31st March 2012

 

Monthly Chart

Bullish Indications : Trade above the downtrendline from November 2010 maintained.Support on the trendline  for April at 9400.Close maintained above the 12 month ema.Macd gave an uptick and is above zero line. Rsi14 and stochastics too above 50 line.
Bearish Indications : A lower high  monthly candle.Candle pattern formed is an Inside pattern which indecates indecision about carrying on the uptrend which started From 7766. Candle for the month is a doji with an equal upper and lower shadow showing confusion/indecision and lack of conviction to carry on with the uptrend.Macd in sell mode. Rsi14 has turned down.

Weekly Chart

 

Bullish Indications : Close maintained above 40 & 100 wema and the downtrendline from November 2010.Bullish cross between 40 & 100 wema comtinues.Bullish hammer formed. Bullish flag pattern still valid as shown in chart below.So bullish view can be held till break of 9700 for the coming week.

 Bearish View : A lower high lower low candle formation continues. Traded below the uptrendline from December 2011 lows.Macd & Rsi14 given a downtick. Stochastics in sell below 50 line.

Weekly Chart II

Daily Chart

 Bullish Inidcations : Gap up opening which was maintained. Bullish candle without lower shadow closing above all demas as can be seen in chart I. 20,50 & 200 dema bullishly aligned.The candle resisted at  the downtrendline drawn from 10192 peak.Flag pattern still valid till support at 9670-9700  is held.Downtrendline from November 2010 held which now has support at 9672.Oscillators moving up showing strength.
Bearish Indications : Macd and Rsi14 below midpoint. Trend down till 10192 top is taken out.

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

 The Bank Nifty is in a short term downtrend established by the fact that  the lower low lower high pattern is still not reversed. This will happen when the 10583 top on half hourly charts is taken out.The 61.8% fibo retracement level of fall from 10912 to 9845 is at 10505.So strong resistance around the 10500 area.

The medium term trend however remains up till the flag pattern is valid.The fact that the lower low of 9940 was taken out intra week but recovered from the solid supports of the downtrendline from November 2010 shows  bullishness.Buy on dips continues.

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Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com