S&P500 31st July 2012

Daily Chart

 A pause after two  strong bull candle days.Oscillators on daily charts have failed to make new highs thus showing momentum is not keeping up with price.

Caution on longs.

 



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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 31st July 2012

Half Hourly Chart

• Second gap made on the way down filled but  failed to close above it.
• Breakout from downtrendline and inverted head and shoulder pattern giving a target of 5272 which is exactly at the first gap resistance of 5267-5306.Yhis may lead to the second gap getting filled.
• Key to further direction will be the closing above the gap at 5267-5306.
• Left a gap on the way up today which should work as support.The Till then trade as per support resistances marked

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 31st July 2012

Daily Chart

 Half Hourly Chart

Gap up opening resisting at the gap resistance of 10402-10482.Daily stochastics showing the upmove may continue but it is a huge reistance area as marked on the charts so trade cautiously.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 30th July 2012

Weekly Chart 

An Outside Day pattern was formed.The high is higher than the previous day's high and the low is lower than the previous day's low. Outside days are  reversal days. It  is a two-period pattern that suggests a potential reversal or deceleration of the current trend which is Up in case of the S&P500. A close below the low of the pattern, 1329.24, would signal a reversal.The stochastics in the overbought region is ripe for a pullback supporting the Outside day view.

Daily stochastics showing strength and yet to reach the overbought territory. The pullback may therefore continue before taking a dip

Daily Chart

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 30th July 2012

Weekly Chart 

Daily Chart 

Half Hourly Chart 

Last week I said "The weekly candle broke the low of the outside day pattern and indicated a reversal of the uptrend from 4770 was in place". The fall continued this week with a gap downbelow the 40 week ema and the 200 and 50 day ema.Weekly oscillators show more weakness to come.

The daily charts saw all the gaps made on the way up filled.

Support taken at the crucial zone of 5015-5040 area temporarily.The pullback expected materialised but was very weak and resisted at the 50 day ema.Daily Rsi14 has taken support at the level corresponding with Nifty's 4770 level and turned up. Stochastics shows a minor positive divergence which may lead to some more pullback.

Gap areas 5164-5205 and 5267-5306 will remain strong resistances to contend with and only a close above it will bring in bullishness.Till this happens the rising wedge target of 4750 is very much achievable..

Half hourly charts show a rising wedge formation which is bearish in nature.

Trade as per supports and resistances marked.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 30th July 2012

Weekly Chart 

Daily Chart 

The bank Nifty continued to move towards the rising wedge target breaking below the top made at 10224.The expected pullback resisted exactly at the gap resistance of  10402.A flag formation redrawn could hold the clue to further movement.A breakout on the upside could be bullish.

Oscillators show  weakness  indicating more fall to come.Daily stochastics is in the oversold region indicating the pullback could continue.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 27th July 2012

Daily Chart

 Pullback may continue.A weekly close above 1302 would keep the bullishness intact.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 27th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Half Hourly Chart

Bearish engulfing pattern formed. The Engulfing Bearish pattern is commonly found at market tops and at the beginning of a bearish price decline and is a bearish reversal pattern.

However, a variation of this pattern is called the Last Engulfing Bearish pattern. This variation is commonly found after an extended down trend and represents the bears final attempt to drive the market price lower. If one is short and a Last Engulfing Bearish pattern forms, one should identify a protective stop level near the highs of the Last Engulfing Bearish pattern to protect any profit in the trade. 

Stochastics is in the oversold region and Nifty close to 4090-5015 support may lead to a pullback which supports the above view.

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 27th July 2012

Daily Chart 

 

 Half Hourly Chart

Bearish engulfing pattern formed. The Engulfing Bearish pattern is commonly found at market tops and at the beginning of a bearish price decline and is a bearish reversal pattern.

However, a variation of this pattern is called the Last Engulfing Bearish pattern. This variation is commonly found after an extended down trend and represents the bears final attempt to drive the market price lower. If one is short and a Last Engulfing Bearish pattern forms, one should identify a protective stop level near the highs of the Last Engulfing Bearish pattern to protect any profit in the trade. 

Good supports broken on increased volumes.A pullback is due and with the stochastics  in the oversold zone, support taken at the red trendline shown on half hourly chartsand 200 day Ema support at 9999 closeby probability of the pullback accuring is high. Falling channel on half hourly charts have support at 10038-9975.The trend remains down till we see some signs otherwise.

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S&P500 26th July 2012

Daily Chart 

A doji formed at around the strong support  of 1325 low and 200 day ema at 1322.Stochastics in oversold zone. A pullback due. 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 26th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Doji formed second day consecutively and taken support at peak support shown in green.The dojis show indecision to carry on the downtrend.This may lead to a pullback.Daily stochstics too in oversold zone.The pullback will find resistance at the gap of 10402-10482.  

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 26th July 2012

Daily Chart  

Hammer at trendline support. This may lead to a pullback.Daily stochstics too in oversold zone.The pullback will find resistance at the gaps 5164-5205 and 5267-5300.  

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 25th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Decisive close below the bear flag and 50 day ema.1325 low and 200 day ema at 1322 will be key deciders to a sustained downtrend.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 25th July 2012

Daily Chart  

Half Hourly Chart 

A pause in the downtrend depicted by a doji.The candle pattern formed is a bullish harami cross which is a bullish reversal pattern. This may lead to the  pullback is due with stochastics in extreme oversold zone and Obv supporting it after showing a minor positive divergence.

Gap resistance at 5164-5205 and 5267-5300 needs to be filled before any bullish calls are made.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 25th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Half Hourly Chart 

 A pause in the downtrend depicted by a doji.The candlepattern formed is a bullish harami too but with a lower high lower low and the real body in the lower range of the previous day's candle I would not be comfortable calling a reversal.This may lead to the  pullback is due with stochastics in extreme oversold zone and Obv supporting it after showing a minor positive divergence.

Gap resistance at 10402-10482 needs to be filled before any bullish calls are made.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 24th July 2012

Daily Chart 

 Broken and closed below the bear flag once again. The redrawn uptrendline has support at 1342.70.

200 day ema at 1322 and previous low at 1325 which should be good support.

Oscillators exhibiting weakness.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 24th July 2012

 

 Daily Chart 

 Gap at 5217-5134 closed.The gap down at 5205-5164  will now be a strong resistance to contend with.Till then bears will be in control and work towards dragging the Nifty down to the rising wedge target of 4740

Half Hourly Chart 

 

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 24th July 2012

Daily Chart 

The fall from the rising wedge precipitated with a gap down opening.The target for this breakout is around 9100.Gap resistance at 10482-10402 will now be the first important resistance to be scaled for the bullishness to resume.

Oscillators on half hourly charts in extreme oversold zone and so is the daily stochastics.A pullback may be in order sooner than later.A sell on rise till the gap at 10482-10402 is filled.

Half Hourly Chart 

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S&P500 23rd July 2012

Weekly Chart 

Daily Chart 

Weekly candle shows confusion and the daily charts represent a evening star pattern.The bearish flag may be in danger of being broken.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 23rd July 2012

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart 

Half Hourly Chart 

The weekly candle broke the low of the outside day pattern and indicated a reversal of the uptrend from 4770 was in place.The lower high made showed there was no attempt to take the Nifty higher.Oscillators have turned down showing weakness.The next leg down of the red triangle seems to have started.

The gap on the way up made on thursday on daily charts was filled fast showing weakness.The flag which is a bullish continuation pattern, forming is keeping the bulls optimistic.The 50 and 200 day ema have converged at 5163 levels on the verge of giving a bullish cross.Support at the flag is at 5142.The range bound Nifty is throwing up bullish as well as bearish patterns keeping one guessing about the final direction.

Half hourly charts show gap at 5267-5300 as strong resistance and  gap at 5191-5149 as strong support.

Only a decisive move above or below the levels will give rise to some directional move.With the weekly showing weakness a sell on rise till 5348 is scaled would be the strategy.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 23rd July 2012

Weekly Chart 

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart 

Bulls failed to carry the march above the downtrendline from November 2010 highs shown on weekly charts.A lower high lower low weekly candle  changes the bias to negative.The rising wedge shown on daily charts was broken decisively giving a target of around 9100.Oscillators are showing weakness. Only the moving averages are still bullish.

Bulls need to give a break above the bullish flag, with resistance at 10688, to see a resumption of the uptrend. Failure to do this would see the rising wedge target being targeted by the bears.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 20th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Closed above 1375.Next resistance at 1405.80.If support at 1351 breaks then the downtrend would resume after completion of the bear flag distribution.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 20th July 2012

Daily Chart 

I mentioned yesterday,

 "Supported well at the support line of the falling wedge and broke out of the resistance line too.However a confirmation of the breakout should be awaited tomorrow since it is not very convincing.Also the lower high lower low candle sequence needs to change to higher high higher low to change the bias from bearish to bullish".

The breakout and bullish harami mentioned yesterday was confirmed with a gapup which got partially filled with profit booking.A gap remains between 5216-5234 which will act as support.Took a broader view of the chart and realised the fall from 5348 could be the next leg down of the green symmetrical triangle.Watch out for support line of the redrawn flag at 5128 which could precipitate the fall and indeed form the down leg of the triangle.5160 nests the 50 and 200 dema which will remain solid support.

  For the bulls the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder seems to be forming.Neckline is at 5348.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Happy Trading !!
Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com

Reigning The Bank Nifty 20th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Maintained above the downtrendline joining November 2010 highs with 11226.Broke out and closed above the pennant formed but was not convincing marred with profit booking throughout the day.Also closed below the red uptrending channel for the first time in the rally.A close above 10676-10709 required to keep the bears at bay.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 19th July 2012

Daily Chart 

The march up continued stopping minutely above the previous high of 1374.78.This still keeps the bulls on the back foot and wait for a decisive move above it.1404 would be resistance if the bulls succeed in doing so.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 19th July 2012

Daily Chart

 Supported well at the support line of the falling wedge and broke out of the resistance line too.However a confirmation of the breakout should be awaited tomorrow since it is not very convincing.Also the lower high lower low candle sequence needs to change to higher high higher low to change the bias from bearish to bullish.
Just realised that the candle pattern formed is a bullish harami.The bullish harami occurs in a downtrend and comprises of a  black  candlestick  engulfing a small  white candlestick, and is a sign of a reversal of the downward trend.If today's low of 5169 is held it could be the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulder forming.Neckline is at 5348.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 19th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Maintained above the downtrendline joining November 2010 highs with 11226.Taken support on support line of the pennant formed.The continuation pattern will be confirmed on a breakout from it's resistance line at 10618.
The daily candle pattern formed is a bullish harami. The bullish harami occurs in a downtrend and comprises of a  black  candlestick  engulfing a small  white candlestick, and is a sign of a reversal of the downward trend.Watch out for a break above the pennant to confirm the reversal of the very short term downmove.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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S&P500 18th July 2012

Daily Chart 

Good followup necessary with a break and close above 1375 to bring the bulls back

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Nifty 18th July 2012

Daily Chart 

 The fall continued with bearish candle making a lower high and low.Oscillators are weak and it will be a sell on rise startegy.The oversold stochastics may lead to a small pullback.The falling wedge shown above  is a bullish pattern and should in all probability  breakout on the upside.However the broken rising wedge target of 4750 needs to be kept in mind.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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Reigning The Bank Nifty 18th July 2012

Daily Chart

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart 

The daily charts show support taken on the support line of the rising wedge.A  bear flag has emerged, shown in red with support at 10441.This is a bullish continuation pattern.This area of price movement can also be drawn as a bearish head and shoulder on the half hourly chart.The neckline has been broken and retested.This has a target of 10326.If 10597 fails the fall continues  in which case watch if support at 10441 is held for the bullish flag to play out. If not then 10326 will be targeted.

Stochastics has reached the oversold zone and may lead to a pullback.

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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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To Invest or Not To Invest ?

I get the Smart Investor Updates from Business Standard daily into my mailbox.Read today's clipping below and you will surely agree that it only adds confusion in the mind of a lay investor.

Expert Speak
	Not the right time to invest in mid-cap stocks: Sanjay Dongre Interview with Senior VP & fund manager, UTI MF
	We are bullish on mid-cap stocks: Kishore Ostwal Interview with CMD CNI Research
	We remain positive on the Indian markets: Nikhil Vora Interview with MD, IDFC Securities
More

The UTI expert says not time for Midcaps. "Mid-caps are most vulnerable in high inflation, high interest rates and a slower growth environment. Hence, it may not be a good time to bet on the mid-cap space. Investors can look at this space once RBI cuts interest rates by 100-150 basis points cumulatively" is what he says.Valid point.

At the same time we have a CNI Research expert saying they are bullish on Midcaps. "Currently, we have a stock-specific approach. Stocks from the mid-cap space look attractive as things stand" is what he feels.

Most lay investors depend totally on such views to invest their hard earned money.It would be creating a total confusion. We, Nishit and me, have a remarkable way of solving this with our Cherry Picks and Midcap Magic which comes with updates to help you tide through such confusion.

Please write to us at vipreetsubscription@gmail.com for more details.


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Lakshmi Ramachandran
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