Reigning The Nifty - 13th July, 2009 - Weekly

Daily Chart showing RSI close to support




Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

We had a newsy day yesterday--Infosys results which was good and the declaration of deficient monsoons which was bad. Reacting more to the bad news, the market slid to sub 4000 levels. This was expected as we dont expect Nifty to rund up with a broken neck !! So bloodbath it was. It will take a lot of doctoring to nurse the neck back to it's original shape.

Important Observations

• With the weekly finally registering a lower low we declare the intermediate term bearish. The dips are no longer bought, but the rallies are being sold into.
  
• The weekly oscillators are in sell mode excepting the Macd which is converging bearishly with it's signal line.
  
• Daily Stochastics has reached oversold zone , RSI 14 and Macd are reaching important support (view on chart).
• The intraday oscillators are moving down furiously after making a weak attempt to move up.
  
• Three price patterns observed -- Rising wedge -target 3925 , flag pattern- target 3730 , Head and shoulder -target 3570.
• Taken support exactly at 61.8% retracement level of rise from 3534.
• 38.2% retracement level of rise from 2539 is at 3870 and 50% at 3611.

So we are in a downtrend and the momentum is supporting . Targets for the down move are between 3900 to 3600. Timing is difficult so we stay diciplined and look for shorting oppurtunities till we get evidence of a change in trend.

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com