Reigning The Nifty - 1st June , 2009

Nifty Half Hourly Chart Showing Movement Within Channel

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart


Sensex Weekly Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Monthly Chart

I wrote, "On the Daily Line charts Nifty has crossed the recent closing high at 4323. This gives a target of 4537 if the channel support of 4260 is held". The support held well and the breakout took the Nifty to 4488 levels. Looks like my target for 4800 mentioned in my posts on 26th MARCH 2009 and 5th April 2009 is now within sight.

You may read the forecast at
http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2009/03/reigning-nifty-further-insight-26th.html and
http://vipreetinvestments.blogspot.com/2009/04/reigning-nifty-week-starting-6th.html


The month of May has ended with a huge white candle, thanks to the spike after election results. As a result the monthly RSI(14) has moved above the 50 level and the other oscillators too are showing strength. The Nifty maintained itself well above the uptrending trend line and has support on it for June 2009 at 3880 levels. So unless this level is broken on the monthly charts the ongoing uptrend is intact.

The week too ended on a bullish note. The Nifty managed to close above the midline of the channel for the second week in succession. This increases the chances of the Nifty testing the upper trendline of the channel at 4695 stronger. However the oscillators are in overbought zone. There is overhead resistance at 4650- the level from which last fall occurred , 4695 - mentioned earlier and 4800 the 61.8% retracement level of fall from January 2008. I have put up the sensex weekly chart to show that we are at important levels from which we can correct. The coming week would also be the 13th week of the rise from 2539.

The daily charts are also bullish. The fast and sharp retracement of the fall till 4092 on increasing volumes shows that there is money waiting on the sidelines. All oscillators are showing strength once again.The channel mid line supports at 4315-4337-4366-4391-4420 for
5 days of the coming week respectively.

The half hourly charts show the recent breakout move well channeled. The resistance is at 4536-4643 and supprts are at 4442-4540.


Conclusion :

• The trend for the short and medium trend is up so stay long if already entered the markets with a stop loss of 3880-4000 levels.
• Fresh long positions can be taken with proper protection like covered calls. This is only for the savvy trader.
• If you are a novice or an amateur trader wait for a correction to enter.
• Do not take short positions as Indian Markets are once again in demand. Shorts should be initiated only after we have enough technical evidence .
  

Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran
www.vipreetsafetrading.com