Reigning The Nifty--2nd April,2009

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Not much change in the analysis since yesterday. The Nifty teasing has not ended yet, though the trend was a gradual "up" most of the day. At such crossroads, I think it is easier to divide the analysis into bullish case and bearish case, as I did yesterday


Bullish case

• As mentioned nifty broke out of the bullish consolidating flag and one could have gone long as advised . For such longs the stop loss would be at 2960 which has now become a strong base since 26th March , last Thursday.
• The Nifty has once again scaled above the upper trendline of the triangle.
• The Nifty is trading above the 20 and 40 dema's since the beginning of last week.
• The 40 dema too has crossed above the 84 sma for the first time since it crossed bearishly in January 2008.
  
• All the mentioned moving averages are moving up.
• The January 2008 downtrendline is scaled on the 30 minute chart.
• No bearish divergences spotted.
• Day's close was towards the high of the day.
• Though the rise was sharp, correction is stemmed at the 23.6 % retracement level.

Bearish case

• The recent top of 3123 not yet scaled.
• The January 2008 downtrendline on the Daily candle charts not scaled as yet.
• No bearish divergences spotted.
  

So we have more points for a bullish case ! All that the Nifty needs to do is cross 3123 and the downtrendline which is at 3086 for tomorrow on the Daily charts.

Tomorrow is the last day of the week and the level of the January 2008 downtrendline on weekly charts is at 3070. The triangle upper trendline level for the week is at 3010. So watch these levels for taking a call for next week .

Will be away for a few days, but will try my best to post a weekly analysis.



Happy Trading !!

Lakshmi Ramachandran

www.vipreetsafetrading.com