analysis for 12th february

the head and shoulder target is very much on the cards as inspite of bad overseas markets the neckline support was not breached. Longs are safe so long as the neckline is not breached decisively. however it is to be kept in mind that timewise this rally has already consumed 12 days retracing just 61.8% of the previous rise ,indicating a weak rally. so tighten your stops. a good stop would be yesterday's low of 2877.
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analysis for 11th february

the nifty rallied upto 2957 almost the 61.8% retracement (of fall from 3147 to 2661 ) which is at 2961. it retraced to 2891 levels which is the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in classic text book fashion and recovered smartly towards the end. tomorrow the nifty should continue its upward journey towards it s target of 3000 and then 3100 as discussed in the previous post. the upmove will be under threat only if the neckline is decisively broken

end of day analysis for 6th feb,2009

NIFTY INTRADAY 30 MINUTE CHART SHOWING HEAD & SHOULDER TARGET

NIFTY DAILY

nifty finally managed to breakout of the range of the last few days and closed above the high of 2880 made on 30th january at 2920. the range breakout 2755-2880 of 125 points gives an immediate target of 3006. the breakout from the inverted head and shoulder pattern neckline gives a target of 3104.

resistances for tomorrow are at 2970 which is the 61.8% retracement level of fall from 3147 to 2661. 80% retracement levels are at 3050. resistance of the equilateral triangle as shown in the graph is at 3080. on further rise, partial profits may be taken on longs as the oscillators are moving towards overbought zone on intra day charts .

nifty analysis for week ended 6th feb,2009

monthly charts


after the "waterfall" fall in october, the nifty has made three months of dojis indicating extreme indecision. the range of november month indicated by the november candle --2502-3240 has been unchallenged till now thus making the two extremes important points of support and resistance. the movements from november onwards has formed a n equilateral triangle with suppots and resistance for this month at 2725 and 3100 , a 400 point range. a breakout on either side should give a move of about 400 points

weekly

since november the nifty has closed in a range of 2678-3078 --400 points. only a decisive close above 3078 will give any upside. nifty must trade above 2880 levels for it to gather further strength. only a close above 3080 will give a hope of bullishness. an equilateral triangle is being formed and the weekly breakout point is 3102 and breakdown level is 2715. since equilateral triangles are consolidation patterns the possibility of a breakdown or breakout cannot be predicted.

daily

i spot the formation of an inversted H&S pattern with neckline at 2895. a breakout will give a target of 3112, which incidentally is the resistance offered by the equilateral triangle. the 50 dema provides resistance at 2905 and the 84 dsma which has been an effective trendline for the downturn offers resistance at 2942

expecting a breakout from the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern, we may take long positions with a strict stop loss of 2750

NTPC

have zeroed in on NTPC as it is a solid fundamental play.
technically,

• made a low of 113 on 27th october



• made a higher bottom at 130 on 19th november



• rallied on thursday and frday last with good volumes



• equilateral triangle formation with breakout 156.8



• 3%kagi on intra charts entry at 158.2



• 50 dema at 156.



• SO WAIT FOR A BREAKOUT FROM THE 156TO 158 LEVELS . TRADE WITH A STRICT STOP LOSS OF 130.

25/11/08 1pm

breakout and kagi buy. long entered at 159 . sl at 130

watch for any reaction at 165.75 (previous high)

eod-------- pullback after breakout. can increase stop loss to last swing low at 148.35.

26/11/08

registered low at 151.35. since not much difference with last swing low at 148.35 we can retain sl at 148.35

28/11/08

reacted twice from 166 levels tighten stop loss to last swing low of 151

29/11/08

BREAKOUT from previous high made at 165.75 pending.

1/12/08

ditto as of previous day. days action not very encouraging though sl of 151 held

2/12/08

though markets gapped down -- and so did nalco--- but hit 151 levels and rebounded. this makes the level all the more important. also the recent action after the breakout has formed a flag formation. so continue holding with a sl of 151 to take advantage of breakout from the flag pattern which would give a target of 36 points from point of breakout

3/12/08

ditto

4/12/08

given a breakout from the consolidation pattern at 12-30pm. giving a target of 197. however breakout from previous highs areoun 166 is to be watched. a close above this level and holding above this level will confirm the breakout.

eod-----------failed to give breakout today. have to be patient with sl at 151

5/12/08

reacted from 166.85 levels and has broken the recent uptrend line downwards.raise sl to 152.35 which is the 3% kagi sell level.

8/12/08

gave a good breakout intra day above the 167 area but last hour retraced and closed eod above the 166 area. close is not very convincing so tighten stop loss to last swing low at 157.80.

watch out for the 169-170 area where MT TL resistance is very strong having given stiff resistance on 7 occasions including today. so a break from this TL will be very significant.

10/12/08

breakout at 166 held but not able to close at days high. after todays high joing the trendlines shows formation of rising wedge which is bearish in nature. a breakdown from this rising wedge would take it down by 36 points. increase stop loss to last swing low at 165.25